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- 2021 NFL Draft Safety Rankings Re-Evaluated
As we move through the pro days and hear the noise of outlandish forty times and verticals through the roof, I have personally gone through and done more research on every position. The Football Scout 365 Big Board Don't forget to check out the full Football Scout 365 NFL Draft Big Board. After Further Review NFL Draft Edition On YouTube You can check out our Football Scout 365 After Further Review NFL Draft Edition on Youtube. We have five shows so far, three covering the QB position where I break down and connect the dots between player skillset and what the player displays on film concerning such buzzwords like arm talent, arm angle, pocket presence etc. Go To The NFL Draft Guide To View More Content by Clicking Here. What I look for when evaluating a DB. Whether it's a safety or CB, I am looking for similar traits. It starts with the scheme fit and how they translate. Can they adapt to different schemes? Are they more comfortable as a man-to-man defender vs. zone? Are they able to play press-man? Speed and burst matter in the secondary, but speed doesn't matter if a player lacks agility and good technique. Players with quick feet and can react quickly on the fly by flipping their hips are valuable. What do I mean by flipping the hips? Going from your back peddle to a full sprint fast is very important to a DB. The critical part of that transition is flipping your hips to change your body orientation 180 degrees without momentum. It's an awkward body motion that guys at the NFL level make look easy. I also look for willing-run defenders. Can they provide support in the run game? Are they sound in the open field? All of the above can be true for the safety position, but there are some differentiating factors from a CB. You have two safeties in football, free and strong, and sometimes you get a hybrid nickel or LB style safety. The definition of safety has become blurry as they have to be responsible in similar ways at both spots; that's where the hybrid effect comes into play or the undefined role of safety, so to speak, because of how defenses utilize them to defend against pass-heavy spread offenses. So you can understand the difference between a traditional free and strong safety, I'll define it real fast. Free safety is often the deep safety lined up at least 10 yards deep, while the strong safety traditionally lines up on the TE side or the heavy side of an offensive formation. Free safeties are responsible for mostly pass coverage, while a strong safety defends the run while also being accountable for pass coverage. 2021 NFL Draft IDL Rankings Okay, so let's dive into the safety rankings; 1) Oregon S Jevon Holland 6-1 196 lbs Potential Upside Player Holland is known as a leader and a great communicator. He is an agile fluid player who can move into the slot when needed. Holland has CB skills at the safety position. His flexibility adds to his value. He could play corner in the NFL. 2) TCU S Trevon Moehrig 6-1 208 lbs Potential Upside Player A free safety who has lined up in a myriad of spots under Head Coach Gary Patterson, often in a single-high look. He finds the football; he is a ball hawk who does an excellent job at breaking up the football at the catch point. He must improve as a run defender at the next level. 3) USC S Talanoa Hufanga 6-1 215 lbs Potential Upside Player A physical safety who can play deep or in the box. He is strong against the run, and his appeal to NFL GM's places him in the mold of the Derwin James, Jamal Adams style of player. He plays with a violent edge and enjoys contact. He plays with good instincts. He can play zone coverage, and he does well-matched against TE's. Past injury history might be the red flag for some GM's. He has broken his collarbone two times and has dislocated a shoulder. I can attest that it will wear on your body when you try to bring the wood consistently. 4) Georgia S Richard LeCounte III 5-11 190 lbs Potential Upside Player LeCounte communicates well in the secondary is a smart player who can play both man and zone coverage. He can lineup in the slot when needed. He plays with great balance but plays tight at times. LeCounte is a willing special teams player. 5) UCF S Richie Grant 6-0 194 lbs Potential Upside Player Grant is a versatile safety who has played several different roles in the UCF secondary. He is solid in both man and zone coverage and has played a box safety role as well. He projects as a free safety in the NFL. He needs to improve his on-field awareness and tackling. Go To The NFL Draft Guide To View More Content by Clicking Here.
- 2020 NFL Coach of The Year Candidate: The Cleveland Browns Kevin Stefanski
The Cleveland Browns are on the cusp of reaching the NFL playoffs for the first time since 2002. The Browns went 9-7 under then Head Coach Butch Davis and QB Tim Couch. They would go on to lose to the Pittsburgh Steelers in the wildcard round of the Playoffs. After a 2-4 start, The Browns spent most of the 2002 season around .500 before closing out the season, winning on the road at Baltimore and Home vs. Atlanta. Since 2002, Cleveland has not returned to the playoffs. If you were to ask most Cleveland Browns fans in recent years what they thought would happen first, Cleveland makes it to the playoffs, or man returns to the moon, they would most certainly believe that man would land on the moon again before the Browns would make the playoffs. Still, Browns fans who are considered to be among the loyalist of fans in the NFL remain loyal to their team, and that loyalty appears to have finally come full circle as the Browns are poised to reach a double-digit win season for the first time since 2007 (10-6). The Kevin Stefanski Effect in Cleveland During the offseason, I discussed the Kevin Stefanski effect in Cleveland, his approach, and how the Browns already had the personnel to run his offensive scheme. I wanted to quickly re-examine that analysis since the Browns are starting to get hot at the right time. Personnel Groups and Setefanski's Willingness to Adapt I pointed out how Kevin Stefanski utilized 12 personnel at the 2nd highest rate in the NFL in 2019 (34%). So far in 2020, the Stefanski led Cleveland Browns like to operate out of 12 Personnel on 24% of their plays, the 8th highest in the NFL this season. Cleveland operated out of 12 personnel in 2019 at a 23% rate. So the difference for Cleveland YOY is minimal, vs. his usage of 12 personnel in Minnesota; it's a significant difference. The reason? The Browns came into the season with Austin Hooper and David Njoku. Njoku missed time with injury earlier in the season, and their usage of a 2 RB or a 21, 22 personnel with both Chubb and Hunt increased. This proves that Stefanski can quickly adapt his system to the personnel based on the circumstance, which is the mark of an excellent football coach. Regardless of the personnel groups, the Browns are more efficient in the run game out of 12 Personnel YOY, averaging 6.2 yds per rush attempt vs. 4.5 in 2019. The Browns passing game out of 12 Personnel averaging 8.1 yds per attempt in 2020 vs. 9.2 in 2019, but they are more efficient. In 2019 Browns QB's threw 2 INT's and were sacked five times out of 12 Personnel vs. 2019, where they have only turned it over one time and while surrendering a single sack. The passer rate has also improved by 3.4 points YOY from 100.5 to 103.9. Staying Ahead of The Chains The other area we examined, Cleveland's inability to stay ahead of the chains in 2019. During the summer, I wrote that Kevin Stefanski was a very run-heavy play-caller on 1st down, calling a run on 57% of Viking first down play calls. The Vikings averaged 5.5 yds per play, both running and passing on first downplays. On 2nd down, they remained balanced, running the ball 51% of the time while averaging 6.0 yds per play (run or pass), ranking 6th in the NFL. 2019 Browns 1st Down Offensive Efficiency In 2019, the Browns were not bad on first down yds per play average (5.7), ranking in the top third of the NFL, while remaining balanced running the football 51% of the time. The Browns did throw 7 INT's on first down plays (Bot 3rd). 2019 Browns 2nd Down Offensive Efficiency On 2nd downplays, Cleveland actually faired better in yds per play than the Vikings at 6.1 yds per play (5th), but again they threw 6 INT's on 2nd downplays (Bot 3rd). In 2019 the Browns ran the football 38% of the time on 2nd down, throwing balance out the window and attributed to several early-down sacks. Browns QB's were sacked 17 times on 1st down in 2019 (Bot 3rd), likely leading to the league's 7th worst yds to go average on 2nd down of 8.4 yds. 2020 Cleveland Browns Early Down Efficiency In 2020 under Stefanski, the Browns are 2nd in 1st down yds per attempt and have only surrendered four first down sacks (4th). On second down, the Browns are more balanced running the football on 45% of their 2nd down attempts and average 5.7 yds per play (15Th). The Browns are 12th in average yds to go on 2nd down (7.6) and have given up only nine sacks (Top 3rd). The Browns are .8 yds better per play on 2nd down compared to 2019. Success on Early Downs Have Improved The Browns Third Down Success Early down success and staying ahead of the chains lead to more success on third downplays. In 2019 the Browns ranked in the bottom third of the NFL in third-down yds to go average (7.5) and averaged 4.5 yds per play (Bot 3rd). Cleveland also gave up 17 sacks on third down (Near the bot 3rd). The Browns were also in the bottom third of the NFL in third-down conversion rate (36.3%). 2020 Cleveland Browns 3rd down Efficiency In 2020, the Browns are near the top third of the NFL in average yds to go on third-down plays (6.7) and are tied for 1st in the NFL in third-down sacks allowed (3). The Browns are in the middle third in average third down yds per play but convert at a 44% clip (top 3rd). The Browns have thrown 4 INT's on third down marking the only real negative for them in this much-improved area. The Future of the Browns The Browns have the Ravens, Giants, Jets, and Steelers remaining in 2020. They need to win 2 of 4 to secure themselves a spot in the playoffs completely. They can certainly go 10-6 and still be in, but why leave it to chance. The Brown's emphatic beatdown of the Titans this past Sunday is the signature win they needed to solidify their status as real playoff contenders. If they can beat the Ravens or Steelers in the next four games, that would put them in serious Super Bowl contention, and if they beat both the Steelers and the Ravens, the spotlight will shine brighter on the City of Cleveland than ever before. Browns fans have a lot to be excited about in 2020 and beyond. The Brown's ascension to the playoffs in 2020 probably feels like a shot to the stars. If the Browns land on the moon, that's a tremendous success; anything beyond the moon could lead them to an AFC title game, the Browns first since the game vs. the Broncos in 1989 "The Drive" and John Elway who broke the hearts of Cleveland fans with an epic 99-yard game-winning drive. Follow Football Scout 365 or visit FootballScout365.com For daily analysis, please follow us on Instagram. We are also on Twitter, Linkedin, and YouTube. Football Scout 365 on Instagram Football Scout 365 on Twitter Football Scout 365 on LinkedIn Football Scout 365 on YouTube
- Rumor: Texas Longhorns Preparing To Make a Run At Former Ohio State Head Football Coach Urban Meyer
Former Ohio State Football Head Coach and Current Fox Sports Big Noon College Football Analyst Urban Meyer is a hot commodity and rightfully so. Urban Meyer's name trends every time a big-name NFL or college football coaching job opens up. Urban Meyer's Coaching Career In Meyer's 17 years as a head football coach, Meyer has never won less than eight games in a season. In his time at Ohio State from 2012-18, Meyer never won less than 11 games. His career win percentage of 85.3% is the highest percentage among FBS level coaches since Bowling Green's Doyt Perry, whose final season in 1964 capped off a career win percentage of 85.5%). Urban Meyer's winning percentage at Ohio State was at a video game level of 90%. Meyer has won three national championships, two as the Florida Gators Head Coach, and one at Ohio State. So again, reasons are abundant why Urban Meyer is a top candidate for every major college coaching job and the NFL. But let's take a more in-depth look at the real reason why Urban Meyer is a hot commodity and why the rumor about Texas makes a lot more sense than any other job that might open up in college football or the NFL. Building a Culture Building a strong culture within your college football program is just as important as recruiting. Urban discussed the importance of culture on the Focus 3 Podcast with his close friend and business leadership expert Tim Kight. In episode #62, Urban Meyer discusses what you should do as a leader of an organization leading off with the importance of clarifying and implementing culture. Culture is not a document or a poster. It's what people in the organization believe, how they behave, and the experience their behavior delivers to others. -Urban Meyer (Focus 3 Podcast) The Texas Longhorn Football program has underachieved since the departure of Mac Brown. Brown had a run from 2001 to 2009 of consecutive ten win seasons, including six seasons with 11 or more wins and one National Championship in two appearances. Texas Football from 2001 to 2009 was at the top of the college football hierarchy. From 2009 to Mac Brown's final season in 2013, the Longhorns began their decline winning as few as 5 games in 2010 and as many as 9 in 2012. Since 2009, the Texas Longhorn Football program has won 56% of their games. They have hired three head coaches. From 1998 to 2009, Texas won 83% of their games. The instability and the culture of the football program have shown since the departure of Mac Brown. Including the most recent indictment that coach Tom Herman has an "it's my way or the highway approach" that has rubbed players the wrong way. When Herman came in he said ‘it was my way or the highway.’ And when I spoke to former players, they said that’s the problem,” Howard said on Saturday’s edition of the program. He cannot connect with the players. There’s a gross disconnect between the head coach, Herman, and the players. That’s what you’re experiencing. That’s what you’re seeing. -Desmond Howard College Gameday Analyst Recruiting and Development The lifeblood of college football is recruiting. Gone are the days when being a good game planner or schemer can help bridge a talent gap at the game's highest level. It's also not enough to get top recruits in your program; you have to work with and develop that talent to get the most out of each player. According to 247 Sports recruiting rankings, the Longhorns have the nation's 17th best class so far for 2021. In recent years the Longhorns have brought in the nation's 8th best-recruiting class (2020), 3rd best recruiting class (2019), and 3rd best recruiting class (2018), and they currently boast the nation's 5th most talented roster according to 247 Sports Total Talent team rankings. Yet the Longhorns are currently 5-3 and have won only more than eight games one time since 2010. Urban Meyer led football programs have proven to be both great at recruiting. At Ohio State from 2012 to 2018, Ohio State brought in five top 5 classes according to 247 Sports. And as stated earlier, Ohio State's win percentage of 90% under Urban Meyer shows that teams develop and perform at the highest level under his leadership. Meyers Background With Player Arrest Yes, we know Urban Meyer has baggage worth noting. There was 30+ arrest under Urban Meyer while he was at Florida , but while at Ohio State, the number of player arrests was not as consistent. There is the alleged Zach Smith domestic abuse cover-up that led to Urban Meyer stepping down at Ohio State and the health issues that have arisen in the past. These are all notable data points that deserve consideration when an athletic director decides whether to hire Urban Meyer. If The Rumors Are True If the rumors are true that the Texas administration is interested in Urban Meyer, they might need to load a Brinks truck full of cash and personally deliver to his Columbus Ohio home. Texas wants and needs a winner, a coach who can come right in and rebuild a dwindling culture within a football program that is a literal sleeping giant. Very few coaches can walk right into a college football program and turn it around overnight. Texas has all the resources, the talent on the roster ready to be developed, and a hungry fan base prepared to win. The enthusiasm for hire like this in Austin and throughout the state of Texas would be unparalleled.
- Change Is Coming as College Sports Leadership Is Working To Separate FBS Football From The NCAA
As the college football season nears the finish line while running on fumes, and college basketball kicks off its 2020-21 season, a commission of former AD's, school presidents, and influential figures in college sports are recommending sweeping changes across the college sports landscape. The group, which refers to themselves as the Knight Commission on intercollegiate athletics, began a deep dive into the structure of today's intercollegiate athletics landscape. Their mission is to transform the current NCAA D1 model and at the top of that list is D1 or "FBS" college football. Knight Commission recommends a new governing structure for the sport of FBS Football In a December 3rd press release, The Knights Commission released a document detailing their recommendation to form a new governing body for FBS (D1) level college football. The commission discusses the need to separate D1 football from the NCAA model leaving The NCAA as the governing body for all other intercollegiate athletics, including the men's and woman NCAA tournaments. March Madness is the top revenue generator for the NCAA, generating a near $1B annually, with most of the revenue coming from TV contracts. The NCAA currently handles all regulatory functions for FBS college football yet does not receive any football revenues. FBS football’s national championship, the College Football Playoff (CFP), is managed instead by the independent CFP Administration, LLC, outside of the NCAA structure. The revenues from that championship, which generated more than $460 million in 2019, are retained by the FBS conferences and institutions to use however they choose. We’re at a moment of both crisis and opportunity in college sports,” said Knight Commission co-chair Arne Duncan, former U.S. Secretary of Education. “Now is not the time to think only of narrow institutional interests. Now is the time for college leaders to step up, and act on their desire to advance big solutions to benefit college athletes. - Knights Commission Co-Chair Arne Duncan The Survey Says, Change is Needed The commission’s novel survey found that nearly 80 percent of Division I campus and sports leaders favor “big solutions” over incremental change for reforming D-I governance. Those leaders also believe the crisis created by the COVID-19 pandemic presents the “perfect time” to address serious governance shortcomings. The commission believes that the NCAA is falling behind the fast-moving evolutionary commercial changes sweeping across the college sports landscape. Separating the sport of FBS football from the NCAA would end the current financially defunct system of governance, in which the NCAA absorbs all expenses for FBS college football, without receiving financial benefits from the sport or the College Football Playoff. Those expenses include enforcement, catastrophic insurance, legal services, health and safety administration, and research. No single entity today is responsible for FBS football – the most powerful sport in Division I athletics,” said incoming Knight Commission co-chair Nancy Zimpher, Chancellor Emeritus of the State University of New York. “It is time to end this leadership void and bring more accountability to the sport, both for the benefit of athletes and for the future of FBS football. - Knight Commission Co-Chair Nancy Zimpher The Separation of the Haves and Have Nots Is A Numbers Game The landscape of college football is changing. Student-athletes will soon be able to profit from their name image and likeness, and the schools with the largest following and richest donors will begin to separate from the have nots. In addition, with the new transfer portal rules that allow a student-athlete to essentially become a free agent, the landscape is ablaze. These changes might be an indicator that FBS football might consider a significant consolidation where they separate the haves from the have nots. Below are the top 5 revenue generators from each Power Five Football conference. The athletic departments who are not operating at a loss have the best opportunity to come out on the other side of Covid with little to no harm vs. the schools which are operating in the red, including those who have operated in the red before Covid that might not be able to sustain their current FBS status moving forward. The future of D1 (FBS) college football could see a transformation where the conferences consolidate to divide more revenue among fewer football programs—driven by TV contracts and the need for more top matchups to generate buzz and get eyes on TV and the growing online viewing platforms. Changes are inevitable, and it will only strengthen the game of college football moving forward. American 1. UCF — $30 million 2. SMU — $21 million 3. Houston — $19 million 4. Memphis — $18 million 5. South Florida — $17 million ACC 1. Florida State — $69 million 2. Clemson — $61 million 3. Miami — $56 million 4. NC State — $46 million 5. Syracuse — $44 million Big Ten 1. Michigan — $122 million 2. Ohio State — $115 million 3. Penn State — $100 million 4. Nebraska — $94 million 5. Wisconsin — $90 million Big 12 1. Texas — $156 million 2. Oklahoma — $95 million 3. TCU — $65 million 4. Oklahoma State — $52.2 million 5. Iowa State — $51.9 million Conference USA 1. UTEP — $14.22 million 2. FIU — $14.2 million 3. Rice — $13 million 4. UAB — $12 million 5. Florida Atlantic — $11.9 million MAC 1. Toledo — $11.7 million 2. Miami (Ohio) — $9.3 million 3. Western Michigan — $9.26 million 4. Ohio — $9.1 million 5. Eastern Michigan — $8.8 million Mountain West 1. Colorado State – $25 million 2. Boise State — $20 million 3. Fresno State — $16 million 4. Wyoming — $14 million 5. San Diego State — $13.4 million Pac-12 1. Washington — $84 million 2. Oregon — $72 million 3. Utah — $63 million 4. USC — $50 million 5. Washington State — $45 million SEC 1. Georgia — $123 million 2. Auburn — $95 million 3. Alabama — $94.6 million 4. LSU — $92 million 5. Tennessee — $91 million Sun Belt 1. Louisiana-Lafayette — $11 million 2. South Alabama — $10 million 3. Appalachian State — $9.4 million 4. Coastal Carolina — $9.2 million 5. Troy — $8.6 million Power 5 — Top 15 (Revenue Generators) 1. Texas — $156 million 2. Georgia — $123 million 3. Michigan — $122 million 4. Notre Dame — $116 million 5. Ohio State — $115 million 6. Penn State — $100 million 7. Auburn — $95 million 8. Oklahoma — $94.8 million 9. Alabama — $94.6 million 10. Nebraska — $94.3 million 11. LSU — $92 million 12. Tennessee — $91 million 13. Wisconsin — $90 million 14. Florida — $85 million 15. Washington — $84 million Follow Football Scout 365 or visit FootballScout365.com For daily analysis, please follow us on Instagram. We are also on Twitter, Linkedin, and YouTube. Football Scout 365 on Instagram Football Scout 365 on Twitter Football Scout 365 on LinkedIn Football Scout 365 on YouTube
- NFL: Five Notable Trends and Stats Through Four Weeks (Free Access To NFL Advanced Stats)
Weekly NFL Advanced Stats (Free Access For 2020) Check out our weekly NFL Advanced Stats, where you can get advanced team, player, and fantasy stats in one spot released every Wednesday. We use a google sheets format keeping overhead low. Click here to go to the NFL Advanced Stats page. Top five NFL players (run attempts) first down conversion rate. - Cam Newton and Ryan Fitzpatrick pick up a first on 43% of their rush attempts. For daily analysis, please follow us on Instagram. We are also on Twitter, Linkedin, and YouTube. Football Scout 365 on Instagram Football Scout 365 on Twitter Football Scout 365 on LinkedIn Football Scout 365 on YouTube
- NFL Week Four: High Impact Game of The Week Cowboys vs Browns Reviewed
Featured Analysis High Impact Play Rate And Every Play Analysis Our High Impact Game of The Week will highlight a different team each week during the NFL season by taking a more in-depth look at the matchup using our High Impact Play Rate analysis combined with our every play analysis. What is High Impact Play Rate? High Impact Play Rate accounts for big in-game moments such as sacks, turnovers, TFL's, and explosive plays. Our High Impact Play Rate analysis works as a diagnostic tool created to help identify the critical areas of focus when performing an every play film review. What is an Every Play Analysis? We created a customizable (to fit your needs) every play evaluation process made for coaches that analyzes every situation, from down & distance, field position, offensive and defensive personnel groupings, play type, and play area. The custom analysis process can use 70 different metrics, more or less, based on your needs. Cowboys vs. Browns Game Report and Final Review. Our High Impact Play game of the week featured the Dallas Cowboys vs. Cleveland Browns. Player Matchup of The Week Baker Mayfield: 19-30, 165 yds passing, 2TD's/1INT, 0 sacks, Rating: 100.00, 3 rush attempts for 6 yds, and 0 TD. Dak Prescott: 41-58, 502 yds passing, 4 TD/1INT, 3 Sacks, Rating: 112.9, 2 rush attempts for 12 yds, and 0 TD's. High Impact Play Rate Differential Decision Of The Game High Impact Player Of The Game Miscellaneous Stats For daily analysis, please follow us on Instagram. We are also on Twitter, Linkedin, and YouTube. Football Scout 365 on Instagram Football Scout 365 on Twitter Football Scout 365 on LinkedIn Football Scout 365 on YouTube
- NFL: Five Notable Trends and Stats Through Three Weeks (Free Access To NFL Advanced Stats)
Weekly NFL Advanced Stats (Free Access For 2020) Check out our weekly NFL Advanced Stats, where you can get advanced team, player, and fantasy stats in one spot released every Wednesday. We use a google sheets format keeping overhead low. Click here to go to the NFL Advanced Stats page. Fantasy Defenses to Target We have a new number one defense trending toward 2000 PPR fantasy points allowed through three games, the Seattle Seahawks. This is not a big surprise; the Seahawks were trending towards 2k last week, ranking 2nd to the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta switches spots with Seattle, and we have a new face in the top three, the Dallas Cowboys, who are trending towards 1860 PPR points allowed through three games. Pay attention to each team's schedule. The Seahawks have faced three top ten scoring teams to open the year and will be matched up against a Miami Dolphins team that scored 31 on the Jaguars last Thursday, yet the offense didn't surpass 300 total yards. Seattle will undoubtedly have a far easier time vs. the Dolphins offense in week 4, maybe. The Dallas Cowboys being on this list is a big concern, considering I picked them to make it to the NFC title game. Their defense is surrendering the third-most points in the NFL. They are also trending the third-highest fantasy PPR points (1860). 45% of the Cowboys total fantasy points allowed are from opposing teams WR's. But consider their first three opponents of 2020, the Rams, Falcons, and the Seahawks. The Cowboys secondary opened the season against Kupp and Woods, week two, they faced Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, and this past week they faced D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett with Russell Wilson, who is having an NFL MVP start to his season. The Cowboys will meet the Cleveland Browns this week in what might feel like a break for their secondary compared to the last three games. Darrell Henderson, Alvin Kamara, and Autin Ekeler lead the NFL in first down rate (Rushing and Receiving Combined) The top three players who move the chains through three games are Darrell Henderson, Alvin Kamara, and Autin Ekeler. All three backs play a significant role in the passing game for their team. Henderson shared the backfield with Malcolm Brown against the Bills. Both had 34 snaps, but Henderson led the way with 24 carries and 114 yds on the ground. Henderson also had ten first down conversions on the ground. Jared Goff only targeted Henderson three times with one catch for six yards on Sunday. Hendersons value is on the rise. Top three defenses in total yards per play allowed through three weeks. The Colts, Bucs, and Steelers are the stingiest defenses n the NFL through three games allowing the lowest total yds per play. The Steelers and Bucs defenses get a lot of publicity, but the Colts defense is beginning to show that it is real, at least until competition ramps up. Yes, it becomes easy to pad your stats against Sam Darnold and the Jets, but you can say the same about the Bucs, who just faced the Panthers and Broncos on back to back weeks. The Steelers have had the Giants and Broncos in two of their three games. The Colts did face Jags and Gardner Minshew, who completed 19-20 passes for only 173 yards but did throw three TD's. Philip Rivers's poor two-interception debut did not help the Colt defense. The Colts will face the Chicago Bears this week. Top three red zone scorers (non QB) Through three weeks. Alvin Kamara (5), Aaron Jones (4), and Ezekiel Elliott (4). There is a tie for 2nd between Jones, Elliott, CMC, and Cam Newton who all have 4 TD's. Rex Burkhead is third with 3 TD's. Top three WR's total target success rate through three weeks. JuJu Smith-Schuster (89.5%), Keelan Cole (88.2%), and DeAndre Hopkins (86.5%). DeAndre Hopkins also leads the NFL in total first downs (21) among players who are trending 75 total opportunities (combined rush att and targets). For daily analysis, please follow us on Instagram. We are also on Twitter, Linkedin, and YouTube. Football Scout 365 on Instagram Football Scout 365 on Twitter Football Scout 365 on LinkedIn Football Scout 365 on YouTube
- NFL Week Three: High Impact Game of The Week Ravens vs Chiefs Reviewed
Featured Analysis High Impact Play Rate And Every Play Analysis Our High Impact Game of The Week will highlight a different team each week during the NFL season by taking a more in-depth look at the matchup using our High Impact Play Rate analysis combined with our every play analysis. What is High Impact Play Rate? High Impact Play Rate accounts for big in-game moments such as sacks, turnovers, TFL's, and explosive plays. Our High Impact Play Rate analysis works as a diagnostic tool created to help identify the critical areas of focus when performing an every play film review. What is an Every Play Analysis? We created a customizable (to fit your needs) every play evaluation process made for coaches that analyzes every situation, from down & distance, field position, offensive and defensive personnel groupings, play type, and play area. The custom analysis process can use 70 different metrics, more or less, based on your needs. Ravens vs. Chiefs Game Report and Final Review. Our High Impact Play game of the week featured the Baltimore Ravens vs. the Kansas City Chiefs. Damned if you do, damned if you don't The story of the night, the Ravens blitzed, and Mahomes made them pay. Mahomes completed 17-21 passes for 219 yards and three TD's when the Ravens brought five or more pass rushers. The most impressive throw against the blitz came on a 49 yard TD pass off his back foot with a man in his face to Mecole Hardman on a third down and 14. The Chief's offense looks unstoppable The Chiefs offense is a juggernaut with the right blend of players and coaches. The creativity was on full display early in the game when Patrick Mahomes threw an awkward-looking shovel pass to his FB Anthony Sherman, who would score from five yards out on 3rd down. The creativity would continue in critical moments throughout the night, allowing the Chiefs to convert on third downs multiple times. When the Ravens defense appeared poised to get off of the field, the Chiefs offense would convert. On third down, the Chiefs converted 10 for 13 vs. the Ravens 3 for 9. Third down in a big game like this once again proves to be the key to winning or losing. Chiefs dominate in the red zone In the red zone, the Chiefs were a perfect 3 of 3, vs. The Ravens 1 of 4. The Raven's inability to convert on third down and in the red zone would be their ultimate undoing. Mahomes can take over a game (is he the Michael Jordan of Football)? Mahomes finished the night with 385 yards and five total TD's (4 Passing, one rushing). Lamar Jackson Struggled Lamar Jackson struggled to throw the football. The game started well for Lamar when he ripped off an early zone-read run for 30 yards on the opening drive. The Ravens would get into the red zone, and the offense would sputter, leading to a field goal attempt. Jackson's struggles were aided throughout the night by his WR's and TE's, who dropped five passes. Two of the drops by my count would have been TD's, including the most obvious to Mark Andrews when the Ravens were fighting their way back into the game midway through the third QTR. Lamar Could not get into a rhythm Lamar Jackson could not get into a good rhythm throwing the football. He did manage to rush for 83 yards, but he did not surpass 100 yards passing. The Chiefs, as described by Jackson last night, did a lot of the same stuff on defense that the Titans were doing to him in last year's playoffs (something to dig into more later). The Ravens with Lamar Jackson as the starting QB are winless in games where they trailed by 10+ points at halftime One stat that was brought up, and I cannot remember who said it this morning, so forgive me, is that Lamar is 0-9 in games when the Ravens trail by ten or more points at halftime. This stat's significance is alarming, yet it makes sense considering the style of offense that the Ravens like to play. The Ravens offense is predicated on the run game and controlling the clock. I brought this up yesterday in the game preview when I discussed how important it would be for the Ravens to not fall behind by two or more scores as they did a year ago against the Chiefs. The Ravens committing uncharacteristic penalties One other major factor that did not helo the Ravens, penalties. The Ravens came into his game with zero penalties against them. They would finish the game committing 6 for 45 yards. The penalties were often at inopportune moments that would result in a 2nd or 3rd and long situation for the Ravens. You cannot aid that struggle by committing multiple undisciplined errors in a game where you are struggling to throw the football for 100 yards. The winner of this game is in the driver seat for a first-round bye The winner of this game is in the driver seat to obtain the first-round bye. The Chiefs look unbeatable after watching them destroy the Ravens. Spread, Game Total Chiefs covered, game total 54 (under) Player Matchup of The Week Patrick Mahomes: 31-42, 385 yds passing, 4TD's, 0 sacks, Rating: 133.5, 4 rush attempts for 26 yds, and 1 TD. Lamar Jackson: 15-28, 97 yds passing, 1 TD, 4 Sacks, Rating: 73.1, 9 rush attempts for 83 yds, and 0 TD's. High Impact Play Rate Differential Drive Of the Game Decision Of The Game High Impact Player Of The Game Miscellaneous Stats For daily analysis, please follow us on Instagram. We are also on Twitter, Linkedin, and YouTube. Football Scout 365 on Instagram Football Scout 365 on Twitter Football Scout 365 on LinkedIn Football Scout 365 on YouTube
- The Ravens vs. Chiefs Monday Night Showdown Is a Potential AFC Title Preview
The 2019 matchup A year ago, week three, at Arrowhead, the Chiefs beat the Ravens 33-28. The Ravens led 6-0 in the first QTR before the Chiefs would score 23 unanswered 2nd QTR pts. With the Chiefs leading 23-6 at halftime, the pressure would be on the Ravens to score on their first drive of the 3rd QTR. The Ravens would do just that going 75 yards on nine plays using more than 4 minutes of the clock. The Ravens, down 23-13 were back in it and would need their defense to get a stop vs. a red hot Chiefs offense that had scored 3 TD's and a FG on their previous four possessions. The Ravens would get the stop they needed on the next Chiefs possession, but the Ravens offense did nothing with their next opportunity punting the football back to the Chiefs. The Chiefs would go on an eight-play 80-yard drive in 4:14, scoring another TD while taking a commanding 30-13 lead. The Chiefs ability to gain and maintain a lead in 2019 vs the Ravens The 2019 Baltimore Ravens were a run-first team that ate up clock and leaned on their opponents with their dominant offensive line, and with the Chiefs up three scores, they would need to depend on Lamar in the passing game to cut the deficit. Lamar would make some big-time plays down the stretch in the passing game, including two critical 4th down throws that would keep drives alive. But it would prove to be too much for the Ravens offense. Once the Chiefs were up two scores, they maintained that advantage into the 4th QTR, and that is not a situation the Ravens and Lamar Jackson can flourish. The Chiefs would love to get a two-score lead on the Ravens to apply pressure and force them out of their comfort zone tonight. The importance of 3rd/4th down stops The 2020 Baltimore Ravens defense ranks 2nd in the NFL through two weeks in third-down defense. The Ravens were a top ten defense a season ago defending against third-down conversions. Against the Chiefs in 2019, the Ravens struggled to get the Chiefs into third-down situations, and when they were able to, they allowed them to convert 5 of their 9 third-down attempts. The Ravens offense went 5-13 on third downs vs the 2019 Chiefs defense. The Chiefs defense forced 8 third-down stops vs. the Ravens defense, who only forced four third-down stops. The Ravens offense did go 3 for 4 on 4th down attempts in what would prove to be the difference in keeping them in the game. The 3rd/4th down stop differential between the Ravens and the Chiefs would favor the Chiefs, who forced four more 3rd/4th down stops than the Ravens. A handful of plays decides the outcome of most NFL games . The difference in most NFL games will come down to a handful of plays. You can point to these plays as the reason for the outcomes that transpire in any game. In 2019, the difference between the Chiefs and the Ravens came down to a handful of High Impact plays. Getting stops on 3rd/4th down is the most impactful to winning or losing a football game. Both teams will do their best to stay ahead of the chains to prevent third down and long. Stay ahead of the chains (on-schedule) If the Ravens are going to win tonight, they will need to stay ahead of the chains (2nd and four yds or less, 3rd and three yds or less. Staying ahead of schedule on early downs will help them win the 3rd and 4th down stop rate vs. the Chiefs. The run game once again becomes vital to early-down success. Lamar Jackson will need to put pressure on the Chiefs defense with his legs early in the game, setting up RPO and play-action opportunities, and opening the run game for Mark Ingram and company. The Chiefs will do what they can early to get a lead on the Ravens and take them out of their comfort zone. If the Chiefs can get early 3rd down stops, force punts, or get a turnover that leads to a multiple possession lead, they can try to control the game as they were able to do in 2019. Both teams are top five at getting third-down stops through two weeks (Ravens 1st, Chiefs 5th). The importance of the run game for both teams The run game for both teams will need to be a factor. The Ravens secondary will face its toughest battle yet, while the Chiefs defense will be forced to defend all eleven because of Lamar's ability to run the football. The Chiefs can also put pressure on defenses with Mahome's ability to move the chains with his legs. The Ravens will need to scale their man defense on third down and keep a spy on Mahomes in key situations. The Chiefs will spy Lamar the entire night. I expect the Chiefs to be more than happy to force the RB on the inside zone-read plays where Lamar is looking to take the edge. The Ravens could exploit this scenario by running a midline zone-read attacking the one or the three techs. The Midline would allow Lamar to keep it through the middle of the defense while reading inside out. If the Chiefs force the give on a midline zone read, Lamar will give to the RB going outside. Lamar Wants to win from the pocket and will do what it takes to keep plays alive, but should take what is given to him vs. the Chiefs. Lamar wants to throw the football. I recently diagramed a few examples of Lamar Jackson wanting to throw the football by keeping a play alive so his receivers can get open. Even when there is open grass, Lamar keeps his head up, eyes up, looking to make a throw instead of taking off running. How Lamar handles these situations will be a factor. Steve Spagnuolo will use simulated pressure before dropping 7, or even eight into coverage. Lamar should take what they give him if they drop 7, or 8 into coverage. If Lamar can get into space, he should take the quick 5 yards on the ground in situations where the Chiefs are only rushing four. Doing this will force the Chiefs to dedicate another defender or two to contain Lamar and open man to man opportunities in the passing game. The Chiefs will do what they can to get Lamar to force a bad throw, and that can be the difference in a game as evenly matched as this one. One possession lost due to an unforced error could be the difference. The Ravens don't need to blitz Mahomes consistently . The Ravens need not blitz Mahomes as consistently as they have the other QB's they have faced the last few weeks. The Ravens have the third-highest blitz rate in the NFL through two weeks (47%). On the other hand, the Chiefs offense has faced a blitz on 19% of their pass plays through two weeks (5th lowest). Since 2018, Patrick Mahomes has been deadly against the blitz, throwing 25 TD's to only 1 INT according to PFF. If the Ravens are going to try to get after Mahomes with extra defenders, it will have to get home, or he will make them pay. Through two weeks, opposing defenses have utilized two-high shells to help contain the Chiefs explosive pass offense. It may better serve the Ravens to take a less blitz-happy approach against the Chiefs. The red zone might be the difference . The red zone might be an area that decides the outcome of the game. The Chiefs have had some red zone issues the first two weeks of the season, scoring a TD on 57% of their opportunities. If the Ravens attempt to play a bend but don't break style of defense against the Chiefs, they could take advantage of the Chiefs red zone woes as the field becomes more condensed. Expect a chess match that will be highly entertaining. These teams are evenly matched, and the outcome of this game should come down to one or two possessions. There will not be a home filed advantage making this game more of a toss-up. If the Ravens can limit the Chief's explosive plays, keep the 3rd and 4th down stops even on both sides while successfully running the football, they will put themselves in a position to win the game. The Chiefs can win if they can keep the Ravens off schedule on 1st and 2nd down, forcing third and medium to long consistently. The Chiefs defense will have to make themselves susceptible to the big play over the top on occasion if they decide to sell out to stop the Ravens run game. The Chiefs, like the Ravens, are in a rob Peter to pay Paul scenario defensively. If the game comes down to who can score TD's in the red zone, the Ravens might have the advantage.
- NFL: Five Notable Trends and Stats Through Two Weeks (Free Access To NFL Advanced Stats)
Weekly NFL Advanced Stats (Free Access For 2020) Check out our weekly NFL Advanced Stats, where you can get advanced team, player, and fantasy stats in one spot released every Wednesday. We use a google sheets format keeping overhead low. Click here to go to the NFL Advanced Stats page. We are now two weeks into the NFL season and with that, we have two weeks worth of data to sift through. This week, we take a look at a few trends leading up to NFL week three. Fantasy Defenses to Target As I was compiling information yesterday, one of the most intriguing statistics involved NFL defenses or lack thereof. The Atlanta Falcons are trending towards giving up 2264 PPR points after two weeks, a trend that is a near 500 pts higher than the worst team in 2019 (Arizona), who gave up 1774 PPR points. Following Atlanta, the Seattle Seahawks (2108), Minnesota (1888), and Cleveland (1883). All of these teams are trending above the Cardinals 2019 season total through two weeks. Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry Total Volume Trend Jacobs and Henry are trending at a 488 total volume rate through two weeks. While Jacobs is averaging a healthy 4.1 yds per opportunity, Henry is at 3.6 yds per opportunity. Both will see some regression in volume trend as the season moves forward, but the regression will most likely lead to higher yds per opportunity number as the season moves on. Just because their total volume trend decreases does not mean they are less valuable. Both are front runners to win the 2020 NFL rushing title. RedZone TD Leader (Non Passing) Cam Newton, Christian McCaffrey, and Alvin Kamara all have four total TD's. CMC is injured and will not return for at least three weeks after being placed on the IR on Wednesday; therefore, he will regress. Newton has four rush TD's through two weeks. Newton has been a battering ram once the Patriots are inside the five-yard line this season. Expect to see this trend continue for Newton as the season wears on, or until they can get one of his backfield mates to step up. As for Kamara, he has three rush TD's and one receiving, a trend I would expect to see from the Saints until the return of Michael Thomas. Total Target Leaders Your top five total target leaders are as follows, Deandre Hopkins (25), Darren Waller (24), Amari Cooper (23), Diontae Johnson (23), and Calvin Ridley (22), tied with Stefon Diggs, D.J. Moore, and A.J. Green for the 4th most targets. Russell Gage is alone with a tie (21) in 5th place through two weeks. Six Teams Are Running the Football At a 50% Or Higher Rate The teams are; LA Rams (58%), Baltimore Ravens (57%), LA Chargers (57%), New England Patriots (51%), Tennessee Titans (50%), and the Cleveland Browns (50%). The six teams are a combined 9-3 through two weeks. For daily analysis, please follow us on Instagram. We are also on Twitter, Linkedin, and YouTube. Football Scout 365 on Instagram Football Scout 365 on Twitter Football Scout 365 on LinkedIn Football Scout 365 on YouTube
- 2020 NFL Week Two: High Impact Game of The Week Seahawks vs Patriots Reviewed
Featured Analysis High Impact Play Rate And Every Play Analysis Our High Impact Game of The Week will highlight a different team each week during the NFL season by taking a more in-depth look at the matchup using our High Impact Play Rate analysis combined with our every play analysis. What is High Impact Play Rate? High Impact Play Rate accounts for big in-game moments such as sacks, turnovers, TFL's, and explosive plays. Our High Impact Play Rate analysis works as a diagnostic tool created to help identify the critical areas of focus when performing an every play film review. What is an Every Play Analysis? We created a customizable (to fit your needs) every play evaluation process made for coaches that analyzes every situation, from down & distance, field position, offensive and defensive personnel groupings, play type, and play area. The custom analysis process can use 70 different metrics, more or less, based on your needs. Seattle vs. New England Game Report and Final Review. Our High Impact Play game of the week featured the Seattle Seahawks vs. the New England Patriots. Our initial belief that the game results would come down to one play held firm as the Seattle Seahawks defense would be on the right side of our game projection. With three seconds to go in the game, the Patriots were at the Seattle one-yard line. The Patriots would line up in the shotgun formation, 12 personnel with a "move" or "H" (TE) in the backfield who motions out to the left inline position presnap. The Patriots run a play that they have run the past two weeks with great success. The Seahawks were ready to defend the QB power. They filled each of the ten gaps created by the Patriots OL and TE's upfront forcing Cam to move laterally instead of downhill. The key once the Seahawks managed to fill all available gaps between the TE's would be to gain leverage on the outside. If executed to perfection, Newton would have been able to squeeze through the crease created by inline TE left and the kick block of his FB vs. the safety. Rather than standing up and allowing the larger FB gain leverage, the Safety (Delano Hill) submarines the FB into the run lane, leaving Newton without an open crease and allowing his defensive teammates to scrape through the traffic to finish off any chance Newton had at daylight. The surprise of the game was the Patriot's secondary surrendering 5 TD passes. Three of the TD's were passes downfield of more than 20 yds, including a 54 yard TD to D.K. Metcalf vs. Stephon Gilmore. Seattle is now the NFC West front runner, followed by the Rams, who have also been very impressive. Russell Wilson is your early NFL MVP front runner. Spread, Game Total Player Matchup of The Week Post-Game Report High Impact Play Rate Differential Drive Of the Game Decision Of The Game High Impact Player Of The Game Miscellaneous Stats For daily analysis, please follow us on Instagram. We are also on Twitter, Linkedin, and YouTube. Football Scout 365 on Instagram Football Scout 365 on Twitter Football Scout 365 on LinkedIn Football Scout 365 on YouTube
- 2020 NFL Week One: High Impact Game of The Week Chiefs vs Texans Reviewed
In just a few days, the opening week of the 2020 NFL season will kick off on Thursday night at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, where the defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs take on the Houston Texans. We will be highlighting the week one matchup between these two teams leading up to the game, during the game and after the game. Featured Analysis High Impact Play Rate And Every Play Analysis Our High Impact Game of The Week will highlight a different team each week during the NFL season by taking a more in-depth look at the matchup using our High Impact Play Rate analysis combined with our every play analysis. What is High Impact Play Rate? High Impact Play Rate accounts for big in-game moments such as sacks, turnovers, TFL's, and explosive plays. Our High Impact Play Rate analysis works as a diagnostic tool created to help identify the critical areas of focus when performing an every play film review. What is an Every Play Analysis? We created a customizable (to fit your needs) every play evaluation process made for coaches that analyzes every situation, from down & distance, field position, offensive and defensive personnel groupings, play type, and play area. The custom analysis process can use 70 different metrics, more or less, based on your needs. Pre-Game Analysis High Impact Play Rate Review 2018-20 Averages Spread, Game Total Player Matchup of The Week Post-Game Report Will be added once the game has been completed. High Impact Play Rate Differential Drive Of the Game Decision Of The Game High Impact Player Of The Game Miscellaneous Stats For daily analysis, please follow us on Instagram. We are also on Twitter, Linkedin, and YouTube. Football Scout 365 on Instagram Football Scout 365 on Twitter Football Scout 365 on LinkedIn Football Scout 365 on YouTube