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How a Transfer Used To Work I remember the days where if you transferred, you had to sit out a year unless the NCAA granted you a waiver. I can attest as someone who follows the sport of college football closely; it would be easier to fit a camel through the eye of a needle than to get the NCAA to approve a transfer. Your circumstances would have to be extreme and generally involved a sick parent, and even then, the NCAA had a rule that you had to transfer within a certain distance of that parent to get the waiver. The New Transfer Rules And The Transfer Portal (AKA, CFB Free Agency) In the fall of 2018, the NCAA introduced the transfer portal. The Student-athlete can now enter their name into the portal indicating their desire to transfer from their current school. The significant difference is that student-athletes can bypass seeking approval from their school and hop into the portal without question. The kicker, you get one free transfer year where you do not lose year eligibility or have to sit out a year. After you use that free year, you can still transfer as often as you want with the consideration of your remaining eligibility. Still, once you burn that free transfer year, you might need an NCAA waiver to avoid losing a year of eligibility while also sitting out a year. When is The Deadline To Transfer? You can transfer anytime during a calendar year, but if you want to use your free year, you have until May 1st (subject to change) to take advantage of not losing your free year and having to sit out for an entire year. What About Those Pesky Transfer Destination Limitations The Old Ball Coach Used To Prevent A Student-Athlete From Leaving? The rule that allowed your coach to place transfer restrictions on where you can go is no more. You are free to transfer anywhere you want, to any division, conference, etc., unless it is the University of Michigan where your credit hours cannot transfer because of the supreme academic overlords who believe Michigan is Harvard (sarcasm). The Recent History of The Transfer Portal and Some Success Stories When I think of the transfer portal, I think of Oklahoma who has had tremendous success landing QB's from other schools and turning them into Heisman contending players who also ascend to championship level QBs. It began with Baker Mayfield as walkon at Texas Tech, who left for Oklahoma back in 2013, followed by Kyler Murray, who left Texas A&M after Kyle Allen was named the starter. Then Jalen Hurts, the ultimate team player, a great leader who stayed the course at Alabama before transferring to Oklahoma in 2019. All three are going to be NFL starters in 2021. You also had Shea Patterson, who transferred from Ole Miss to Michigan back in 2018; he had to get waiver approval. Patterson had a successful two seasons in Ann Arbor. The other high-profile transfer player that comes to mind is Justin Fields, who transferred from Georgia to Ohio State and ascended into a Big Ten MVP, Heisman Trophy Finalist, and a National Championship contending QB. Not all transfer players have success, but we will try to pinpoint who we think will provide the most significant impact in 2021. LB Henry To'o To'o, Alabama Crimson Tide HS Star Rating (247 Sports Comp): 4 Star Measurables: 6-2, 225lbs Yr: SO Old School: Tennessee Volunteers Best Season: 2020, 76 tac, 10 TFL's, 1 Sack, 1 INT Analysis: The 2019 freshman All-American racked up 76 tackles, ten tackles for loss, a sack, and an INT. The former 4-star recruit is considered one of the most talented LB recruits ever to don a Tennessee uniform and left the Alabama program. The Crimson Tide, who is never hard up for talent, added depth at LB, and they were able to procure a very good one via the transfer portal. To'o To'o should not need to learn much as he played in a similar system defensively under Jeremy Pruitt, a former Saban DC. His sideline to side speed, ability to cover backs, and his stout run stop ability will be a major asset in Tuscaloosa. QB McKenzie Milton, Florida State HS Star Rating (247 Sports Comp): 3 Star Measurables: 5-11, 190lbs Yr: RSSR Old School: UCF Golden Knights Best Season: 2017, 4037 passing yards, 37/9 TD/INT Ratio Analysis: Milton won 26 games as a starter at UCF, including two conference championships; he led the Golden Knights to an undefeated season in 2017. Milton has not played football in two years after dislocating his right knee and suffering ligament, nerve, and artery damage during a game in November 2018. RB Eric Gray, Oklahoma Sooners HS Star Rating (247 Sports Comp): 4 Star Measurables: 5-10, 205lbs Yr: JR Old School: Tennessee New School: Oklahoma Best Season: 2019, 772 rush yds, 4 Rush TD's, 30 rec, 254 yds receiving, 2 TD's Analysis: The Sooners are getting a very good player via the portal. Gray entered the college football scene as the nation's 3rd rated all-purpose back according to 247 sports. His playstyle will fit well in the Big 12 conference, and in the Lincoln Riley offense, a player like Gray can flourish as a receiver out of the backfield. He possesses good speed and athleticism. Kennedy Brooks and Eric Gray's one-two combo will give Big 12 defenses a lot to think about in 2021. As if they wouldn't already have a lot to deal with when facing the Sooners. OT Wanya Morris, Oklahoma Sooners HS Star Rating (247 Sports Comp): 5 Star Measurables: 6-5, 320lbs Yr: JR Old School: Tennessee Best Season: 2020, played in 9 of 10 games for the Volunteers, allowed two sacks, and surrendered three penalties. Analysis: A long-limbed athlete from the 2019 recruiting cycle, Morris was a 5-star recruit. If morris reaches his potential at Oklahoma as a left tackle, he could place himself in 1st round 2022 NFL Draft discussions. QB Charlie Brewer, Utah Utes HS Star Rating (247 Sports Comp): 3 Star Measurables: 6-1, 210lbs Yr: SR Old School: Baylor Bears Best Season : 2019, 3161 yards passing, 21/7 TD/INT ratio, 344 yds rushing, 11 TD's Analysis: Charlie Brewer was a four-year starter at Baylor who amassed over 10K total yards and 65 passing TD's. He brings experience, leadership, and good athletic ability to the QB position for the Utes. CB Derion Kendrick, Georgia Bulldogs HS Star Rating (247 Sports Comp): 5 Star Measurables: 6-0, 190lbs Yr: SR Old School: Clemson Best Season: 2019, 43 Tac, 2 INT's Analysis: Derion Kendrick arrived at Clemson as a WR; he transitioned over to the defensive side and took off in his first season as a DB. He progressed more in 2020, improving all facets, man, press, and zone coverage. With room to grow, he will be on NFL team radars in 2021. TE/WR Arik Gilbert, Georgia Bulldogs HS Star Rating (247 Sports Comp): 5 Star Measurables: 6-5, 248lbs Yr: SO Old School: LSU Best Season: 2020, 35 rec, 368, 2TD's Analysis: Gilbert is a physical player who will play WR in Athens but could transition to an off-ball H-Back style TE at the NFL level. Gilbert should provide instant versatility to the Georgia offense in 2021. WR Wan'Dale Robinson, Kentucky Wildcats HS Star Rating (247 Sports Comp): 4 Star Measurables: 5-10, 185lbs Yr: JR Old School: Nebraska Best Season: 2019, 793 Yds From Scrimmage, 5 Total TD's Analysis: The versatile Robinson was hard to defend while at Nebraska. He can play WR and return punts and kicks if needed. He brings a unique versatility to the Wildcats offense and will have a great opportunity to show NFL scouts that he can play at a high level in the SEC. DL Antonio Shelton Florida Gators HS Star Rating (247 Sports Comp): 3 Star Measurables: 6-2, 325lbs Yr: SR Old School: Penn State Best Season: 2020, 13 tac, 4 sacks, 1 FF Analysis: Florida needed a solid interior defender, and they landed one with Penn State transfer Antonio Shelton. He provides a big body in the middle for the Gators and is a capable pass rusher who can get after opposing QB's. LB Mike Jones JR., LSU Tigers HS Star Rating (247 Sports Comp): 4 Star Measurables: 6-0, 220lbs Yr: SO Old School: Clemson Best Season: 2020, 26 tac, 1 sack, 1 FF Analysis: Jones played in 29 games with the Clemson Tigers and started 7. The former 4-star recruit from the 2018 class brings experience to the LSU LB core. He reportedly transferred to LSU for a shot to play inside linebacker, reportedly what LSU brought him in to do. He possesses good athletic ability, which LSU fans have grown accustomed to seeing in recent years at the LB position.

Football Scout 365 Founder/Analyst Brandon Lundberg Interviews Mary Hardin Baylor Basketball Player McKenzie Cano. They discuss her background as an athlete, her views and experiences with NIL so far, and more. Follow: McKenzie Cano on Instagram This show series will be a part of the Football Scout 365 Athlete Brand Development initiative. You can learn more about our Athlete Brand Development initiative and how you can get involved by visiting the Athlete Brand Development Home Page . Todays Show Focus Today we have a special guest interview with McKenzie Cano; she is a freshman College Basketball Player at Mary Hardin Baylor in Texas. McKenzie played high school basketball at Mason Highschool , a 2A program in West Texas; she is considered a dynamic post player who could be impactful early on as a freshman at Mary Hardin Baylor. She was a four-year varsity player in high school who earned a two-time Texas Association of Basketball Coaches honorable mention while achieving first-team All-District honors twice. Subscribe and Follow Don't forget to subscribe to our podcast ( Football Scout 365 ) and the 5 Tool Sports Podcast . Follow Football Scout 365 on our socials-> Here . Stay tuned for more great content!

Today, Host and Football Scout 365 Founder/Analyst Brandon Lundberg is joined by his podcast partners Nate Parker and C.J. McLaughlin from the 5 Tool Sports Podcast to discuss the newest phenomenon sweeping college sports, name, image, and likeness . Below is an outline of events that we discuss in this first episode of Athlete Brand Development. Supreme Court Rules Against The NCAA On June, 21st 2021, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against the NCAA (NCAA v. Alston) in favor of student-athletes in a rare yet unanimous 9-0 decision. NCAA Announces Interim Name Image and Likeness Policy The biggest day in the history of collegiate athletics occurred on July 1st, 2021, when the NCAA released a statement announcing an interim policy allowing student-athletes to monetize using their name, image, and likeness. Mark Emmert's Recent Statements Post NIL Decision In a 30-minute interview with a small group of reporters, Emmert stressed he was not putting forth a mandate or even a recommendation. But he laid out a vision for the future of college sports that puts fewer limitations on athletes and de-emphasizes the role of a national governing body like the NCAA, founded 115 years ago and oversees more than 450,000 students who play sports. Todays Show Focus Brandon provides his theory on the future of major college football, leading into the panel discussion with 5 Tool Sports Podcast Analysts C.J. McLaughlin and Nate Parker. Subscribe and Follow Don't forget to subscribe to our podcast ( Football Scout 365 ) and the 5 Tool Sports Podcast . Follow Football Scout 365 on our socials-> Here . Stay tuned for more great content!

The analysis covers only power five programs. The data we are going to use will come from our Returning Starter and Total Talent Dashboard . The dashboard includes: 247 Sports Total Talent ratings for the last three years. The total number of players sent to the NFL the last three years. The last three years' win percentages. The data will provide a solid baseline for the analysis as all three are vital elements to the success of a major college football coach. The Value Of Recruiting Recruiting, as everyone who is an avid follower of college football knows, is the lifeblood of the sport. If you are not recruiting at a high level in today's college football, you are not competing for national titles. The days of recruiting several developmental three-star players and coaching them up for several years are gone. However, there are a few exceptions at schools with lower expectations, for example, Tom Allen at Indiana. Aside from the two or three exceptions, the coaches who recruit at a high level and win at a high level will be rated higher, while coaches who recruit at a high level yet fail to succeed at a high level will be listed lower. Sending Players to The NFL One trend you will likely see in the rankings will be that teams who recruit at the highest level are sending the most players to the NFL. Some teams send many players to the league yet fail to win at a high level, which presents a red flag. Michigan Football is an excellent example of a team in recent years that has had success sending players to the NFL, yet they are not performing at the highest level. Alabama and Ohio State are on the other end of that spectrum; they both recruit well, send players to the NFL at a high rate and win at a high level. The obvious rule of thumb, teams who can develop their players at a high level, especially teams who recruit at a high level, have the highest success rate. Winning The bottom line in college football is that you have to win. Winning matters, and we decided to add a three-year trend percentage to the dashboard so we can quickly evaluate the teams who are on the rise, stagnant, or consistently winning at a high level. The other day, I had a conversation with one of the 5 Tool Sports Podcast analysts about the difference in expectations between Ohio State and Michigan. My short answer; it is acceptable to consistently go 9-3 or 10-2 at Michigan, while 9-3 or 10-2 can get you fired at Ohio State. That is the difference. The expectations of the top-flight programs are higher, and for a good reason. If teams are consistently winning, the alumni and big-time donors are happy, which keeps the AD, school President, or the Regents comfortable. Once the higher brass starts to feel the heat, it rolls downhill fast in major college football. Coach Salaries Another critical data point to consider is coaching salary. According to USA Today Sports, the average Power Five head coach makes $2.7M per year. The top coaches in the country make $5M or more per year, and the elite coaches (we will use Nick Saban as an example) bring home $8-10M per year. LSU's Ed Orgeron, whose LSU Tigers completed an undefeated 15-0 season in 2019, followed up their incredible 2019 season in 2020 by going 5-5. Ed Orgeron earned $9M in 2020. That is an excellent $1.8M per win, or if you are a glass half empty kind of human, $1.8M per loss. The reality for a coach like Ed Oregon heading into the 2021 season is that the heat will turn up if they have another bad year, even after the historic 2019 season. Winning matters, LSU is in the toughest conference in college football, and for every coach, the leash is short. How many .500 seasons has Nick Saban had? The Football Scout 365 Top Ten Power Five Head Coaches #1 Nick Saban, Alabama Crimson Tide Strength: Recruiting, Development, Defense Three-Year Win %: 92.7% (1st) Three-Year 247 Sports Total Talent Composite Rank: 1st 2021 Class Rankings Updated (7/15) 247 Sports : 1st Three-Year Total Players Drafted: 29 (1st) Nick Saban wins games at the highest level winning six national titles with Alabama, including this past year and one with the LSU Tigers. Alabama's recruiting under Saban has been superb; they rank first in average total team talent, a measure we compiled using the previous three years' data from 247 sports total team talent composite rankings. As far as sending players to the NFL, no coach does it better. Under Saban, the Crimson Tide has been an NFL feeder school. Saban has sent 39 players to the NFL through the first round alone since he arrived in Tuscaloosa, and in the last three years, the Tide continues to roll, sending 29 total players to the NFL according to the data pulled from Pro Football Reference. Nick Saban is also 91-8 since the College Football Playoff era began. #2 Dabo Swinney, Clemson Tigers Strength: Recruiting & Development Three-Year Win %: 92.2% (2nd) Three-Year 247 Sports Total Talent Composite Rank: 6th 2021 Class Rankings Updated (7/15) 247 Sports : 5th Three-Year Total Players Drafted: 18 (8th) The numbers scream more with less when compared to Nick Saban above, and some of that is true, but the reality is that Dabo is still building Clemson into the level that Alabama has been at for years. There were several seasons where Clemson was outside of the top ten in recruiting and still winning at a high level, but they are now bringing in consistent top ten classes. The key component for Dabo has been getting it right when recruiting QB's. Under Swinney, the Tigers had three back-to-back-to-back program-changing signal callers, Tajh Boyd, Deshaun Watson, and Trevor Lawrence. Swinney has two national titles under his belt, and arguably another program-changing QB (DJ Uiagalelei) heads into the 2021 season. #3 Lincoln Riley, Oklahoma Sooners Strength: Scheme, Development, Offense Three-Year Win %: 84.4% Three-Year 247 Sports Total Talent Composite Rank: 11th 2021 Class Rankings Updated (7/15) 247 Sports : 10th Three-Year Total Players Drafted: 17 *(9th) Lincoln Riley is an offensive genius and a consistent go-to for offensive coaches around the country who are looking for new ideas. Since his days as an OC under Bob Stoops, he has been the constant force behind the Sooners Offensive resurgence since 2015. Since taking the reigns as the Sooner head coach, Riley has won 4 Big 12 titles and made appearances in three College Football Playoffs. The Sooners have the 4th highest win percentage in FBS since Riley arrived as the OC in Norman back in 2015. Riley has produced two Heisman Trophy-winning QB's (Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield) and one Heisman runner-up in Jalen Hurts. In 2020, Riley started his first QB (Spencer Rattler) as head coach recruited and developed by his staff rather than a transfer from another program. Rattler is now a projected top-five NFL Draft prospect ahead of the 2021 college football season. There is a reason NFL teams covet Riley as a potential candidate for open NFL jobs. That trend will continue moving forward due to his ability as an offensive guru. Riley needs to procure a national title to further cement his status as one of the top three coaches. #4 Mack Brown, North Carolina Tarheels Strength: CEO, Recruiting Three-Year Win %: 46.23% (44th) (Brown Has Been on Campus Two Years). Three-Year 247 Sports Total Talent Composite Rank: 25th 2021 Class Rankings Updated (7/15) 247 Sports : 14th Three-Year Total Players Drafted: 8 *(27th) (5 drafted in 2021 NFL draft) Number will continue to increase under Brown. Mack Brown has turned the Tarheels football program around in two short seasons, similar to his first stint in Chapel Hill, where he coached from 1988 to 1997. Brown bookended his first stint in Chapel hill by going 1-10 in 1988 to 10-1 and a top-five finish in 1997. Brown boasts a career 65% win percentage; from 1998 to 2013, Brown won 76% of his games at Texas, won a national title, produced a few Heisman winners (Ricky Williams and Vince Young). He has coached for 32 years and won 253 games. So why is Mack Brown rated 4th on our list? Brown is known for his recruiting prowess and has been dynamite the last two years. The total talent rating using the 247 Sports combined three-year total from 2017-2020; the Tarheels have risen to 25th with an 86.62 average rating. Their 2021 recruiting class rating of 90.88 ranks 15th, which shows they will continue their talent ascension. Again, recruiting matters, and Brown has been dynamite as a recruiter and a team CEO in his first few years in Chapel Hill. The Tarheels are a legitimate ACC title contender and a darkhorse CFB playoff contender in 2021. #5 Ryan Day, Ohio State Strength: Recruiting, Offense, QB Guru Three-Year Win %: 91.0% (3rd) Three-Year 247 Sports Total Talent Composite Rank: 2nd 2021 Class Rankings Updated (7/15) 247 Sports : 2nd Three-Year Total Players Drafted: 28 (2nd) The last few years before 2020, we have watched Alabama take on Clemson for the king of college football. Ohio State is now in the driver seat at number two in key categories such as 247 Sports total talent ranking and sending players to the NFL. Ohio State is and always has been a football factory. They have gone from Jim Tressel to Urban Meyer, and now they have Ryan Day. Tressel set the tone in the early 2000s for a program that should have won several titles in the '90s had John Cooper found the secret recipe to beating arch-rival Michigan. Jim Tressel discovered that recipe (closing the Ohio Border to recruiting), Urban Meyer took that approach and expanded it nationally. Now Ryan Day is expanding the horizons of Ohio State with a coach dedicated to offense and high-level QB play. Ryan Day has one feat he must conquer to continue his ascension, win a national title. The two coaches prior did it in a few short years on campus. At Ohio State winning 11, or 12 games a year is the norm; making the college football playoff and winning a national title is expected. Ryan Day is positioning himself to reach that goal of a national title. #6 Tom Allen, Indiana Hoosiers Strength: CEO, Development, Defense Three-Year Win %: 59.4% (24th) Three-Year 247 Sports Total Talent Composite Rank: 53rd 2021 Class Rankings Updated (7/15) 247 Sports : 53rd Three-Year Total Players Drafted: 3 Tom Allen is the outlier on our list for many reasons, but the key reason is that he is at Indiana, where football is secondary to basketball. Allen inherited a cusp under current Ohio State OC Kevin Wilson, an offensive-focused coach fired for player mistreatment claims. Allen, unlike Wilson, is a defensive-minded coach. And the Hoosiers have never been better in the modern era on the defensive side of the ball. The Hoosiers ranked 43rd in yards allowed a season ago, but do not be fooled; they ranked 1st in the country in the red-zone scoring rate (64%). In addition, the Hoosier's offense was equally good in unique ways. They took care of the football ranking 9th in turnover margin nationally, and they ranked 31st in time of possession offense, two stats that benefit a team who wants to protect their defense. Compared to the previous five coaches, Allen does not have the resources, facilities, prestige that the others possess at name-brand universities known for football. Indiana is rated 53rd in total talent, according to 247 Sports Total Talent Rating in 2021. With 77% of their starters returning, the Hoosiers can make a play to compete in the Big Ten East and a potential shot at a trip to Indy for the Big Ten Title. It is a long shot, but certainly not out of the question. #7 Matt Campbell, Iowa State Strength: Motivator, Development, Offense Three-Year Win %: 63.5 (16th) Three-Year 247 Sports Total Talent Composite Rank: 54th 2021 Class Rankings Updated (7/15) 247 Sports : 59th Three-Year Total Players Drafted: 3 *(56th) Matt Campbell is a highly coveted (does more with less) coach whose name popped up in NFL coaching discussion(s) this offseason. He reportedly turned down the Texas Longhorns to stay in Aimes, Iowa. Campbel is a player(s) coach, similar to Tom Allen; according to sources, his players love and respect him so much they would go into a literal war, not just on the football field with him if needed. In football, this is a highly valuable trait that some coaches try to develop but fail. Some of the best coaches in the game do not possess this leadership trait. Campbell, who owns the best winning percentage in Iowa State history, initiated his rebuilding plan and laid the foundation by instilling in his team to “Trust The Process.” His team(s) responded, delivering Iowa State into the most prosperous period in its history. Campbel is a three-time Big 12 Coach of The Year (2017, 2018, 2020) and could be in a position to win it again and even more in 2021. #8 Brian Kelly, Notre Dame Strength: CEO, Recruiting, Offense Three-Year Win %: 86.8% (4th) Three-Year 247 Sports Total Talent Composite Rank: 8th 2021 Class Rankings Updated (7/15) 247 Sports : (9th) Three-Year Total Players Drafted: 21 (6th) Think about Notre Dame before Brian Kelly. Charlie Weis won 56% of his games, and before Weis, Bob Davie and Tyrone Willingham combined to win 58% of their games. Brian Kelly has returned Notre Dame to a notch below Lou Holtz Era success, winning 72% of his games; Holtz won 76% of his games in the 80s and early 90s. In 2016, Brian Kelly's Notre Dame squad went 4-8, an unacceptable mark. With Kelly at a crossroads, he let go of several coaches on his staff and retooled to keep Notre Brass from letting him go. The changes were a huge success. Since that 4-8 season, the Irish have went 43-7, appeared in the College Football Playoff two times, and played for an ACC title in 2020. Kelly has 252 victories in his career with stints at Grand Valley State, where he won two FCS championships, Central Michigan, where he won the MAC Title, and the Cincinnati Bearcats, where he won two Big East Titles before he moved on to Notre Dame in 2010. Brian Kelly has reached great heights, but Irish fans, alumni, and big-money donors are hungry for more. There were rumors a year ago that if Urban Meyer wanted the Notre Dame job, it was his to have. What this says to me is 10-11 wins, and a CFP beatdown is not enough. Kelly must deliver more soon to ascend higher, but as of right now, he is our 8th highest-rated CFB coach. #9 Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern Strength: CEO, Development, Defense Three-Year Win %: 55.7% Three-Year 247 Sports Total Talent Composite Rank: 41st 2021 Class Rankings Updated (7/15) 247 Sports : 50th Three-Year Total Players Drafted: 4 (54th) Like Tom Allen Indiana, Pat Fitzgerald is a coach who achieves more with less. The Wildcats are consistent, and from time to time, they have a down year, but each time they have a bad season, they follow it with a strong year. Northwestern is not a five-star NFL factory; they are known more for academics than sports. Pat Fitzgerald is the perfect coach because he played at Northwestern in the '90s and understands what it takes to be a student-athlete at a prestigious academic institution. His program consistently embodies toughness and resilience. Winning 55% of his games the last three seasons, the Wildcats finished 7-2 in 2020, won the Big Ten West, and represented the West Division in the Big Ten title game. The Wildcats lost talent to the NFL draft from its 2020 team, and they return only 31% of their starters from a season ago. Fitzgerald can solidify his top-ten status as a top ten head coach by putting together another Big Ten West contending season in 2021. #10 Jimbo Fisher, Texas A&M Strength: CEO , Recruiting, Offense Three-Year Win %: 73.6% (10th) Three-Year 247 Sports Total Talent Composite Rank: 13th 2021 Class Rankings Updated (7/15) 247 Sports : 8th Three-Year Total Players Drafted: 13 (13th) There is Jim Harbaugh, and there is Jimbo Fisher. The two are not the same, considering Jim has not won a conference title or a national title, but the conversation of coaching salary and failed expectations is very comparable. According to USA Today , Jimbo received the 5th highest pay of $7.5M last season, while Jim Harbaugh made the 4th highest pay at $8M. Why is this relevant? Fisher has yet to defeat Alabama. Now, Fisher is still an excellent football coach; he is one of the nation's best recruiters; though his offense has become stagnant, his teams are efficient. The Aggies know that the road to a title travels through Alabama. If there will be a better year to take down Alabama, it's 2021 while they are "reloading." For Jimbo to live up to this top ten ranking or move up higher, he has to beat Saban, win the SEC and make the College Football Playoff. Coaches on The Hotseat Ed Orgeron, LSU Tigers Strength: Recruiting Improvement Area: Development and Staff Three-Year Win %: 75.6% (8th) Three-Year 247 Sports Total Talent Composite Rank: 4th 2021 Class Rankings Updated (7/15) 247 Sports : 3rd Three-Year Total Players Drafted: 24 (3rd) It feels like an eternity since the Tigers went 15-0 in a historic year where they had arguably the greatest offense of all time. That was in 2019, and in college football years, that's like ten years ago. After a 5-5 season in 2020 and a 4th place SEC west division finish, Orgeron is looking at a year where he has to prove he is not a one-hit-wonder. Being the head coach at LSU like Alabama, Ohio State, and Clemson, the expectation is to make the playoff and compete for national championships. According to our three-year total talent average, the Tigers boasted the 4th most talented roster, yet in 2020 the on-field product appeared to be far from what the expectations require in Baton Rouge. There is one guy they could go after if things go south, and that is Carolina Panthers OC and the OC when they won the National Title in 2019, Joe Brady. Jim Harbaugh, Michigan Strength: Recruiting Three-Year Win %: 59.8% Three-Year 247 Sports Total Talent Composite Rank: 14th 2021 Class Rankings Updated (7/15) 247 Sports : 13th Three-Year Total Players Drafted: 23 *(4th) After a 2-4 season in 2020, Jim Harbaugh is taking the 2017 Brian Kelly route. He has retooled the majority of his staff, including his recruiting coordinator, to turn things around. Recruiting and talent have not been the issue; developing talent when it arrives in Ann Arbor is the issue. Will the changes be enough to get Michigan to 9 or 10 wins in 2021 and at least a competitive game vs. Ohio State? Harbaugh is betting on himself to do so, even taking a pay cut in a new contract to prove he can get Michigan back on track. If not, Harbaugh could be out by the end of the 2021 season. Clay Helton, USC Trojans Strength: Recruiting Improvement Area: Development Three-Year Win %: 62.2% Three-Year 247 Sports Total Talent Composite Rank: 5th 2021 Class Rankings Updated (7/15) 247 Sports : 7th Three-Year Total Players Drafted: 11 *(21st) Like Jim Harbaugh, talent is not the issue. Helton avoided the calls for Urban Meyer to replace him in 2021, but that still does not mean he is out of the woods. Helton won the Pac 12 and the Rose Bowl in 2017. Since then, he has posted a 5-7 record in 2017, 8-5 in 2018 but bounced back with a 5-1 record in 2020. He has an opportunity to bounce back even stronger in 2021. He has a promising QB Kedon Slovis who is getting 1st round NFL draft buzz, and the Trojans return 59% of their 2020 starters. The talent is there; they rank 5th in total talent average the last three seasons. Coaches On The Rise Mario Cristobal, Oregon Ducks Strength: Recruiting, Offensive Line Three-Year Win %: 70.7% Three-Year 247 Sports Total Talent Composite Rank: 17th 2021 Class Rankings Updated (7/15) 247 Sports : 6th Three-Year Total Players Drafted: 13 (13th) Cristobal is building Oregon into a potential OL U. Cristobal, a former Miami Hurricanes OL Under Jimmy Johnson in the '80s is building Oregon from inside out by focusing on the trenches. Ducks fans should be happy to see a coach who believes in the trenches in a conference not known for physicality. For Oregon to ascend into a realistic national title contender, they will have to be more physical when facing the Ohio State's and Alabama's of the world, and Cristobal appears to get that. Cristobal is a CFB playoff appearance away from ascending into the top ten. Lane Kiffen, Ole Miss Rebels Strength: Offense, QB's Three-Year Win %: 41.7% Three-Year 247 Sports Total Talent Composite Rank: 23rd 2021 Updated (7/15) 247 Sports Total Talent Ranking : 17th Three-Year Total Players Drafted: Lane Kiffen is on the rise once again, and this time we think it's for real. He is a brilliant offensive mind who can be a high-level head coach at a prestigious program if given the opportunity. Mark Stoops, Kentucky Wildcats Strength: Defense, Development Three-Year Win %: 61.3% (21st) Three-Year 247 Sports Total Talent Composite Rank: 39th 2021 Class Rankings Updated (7/15) 247 Sports : 34th Three-Year Total Players Drafted: 13 *(13th) How many Stoops are there? Stoops has built the Wildcats into a middle-tier SEC team after winning just 12 games in his first three seasons. Since that stretch, Stoops has won 37 games, and the Wildcats have made five straight bowl appearances. They are also developing and putting guys in the league.

Over the last five weeks, we have covered the top offenses and defenses using different categories. For offense, we graded and ranked passing offense, run offense, receivers, run blocking, and pass blocking. On the defensive side of the football, we graded and ranked the top pass-rush, run stop, and pass coverage defenses. The results of each, when combined, provide us with a preseason situational analysis grade for both the offense and defense of every NFL team that we use to determine NFL power rankings, the strength of schedule for all teams, and projected win totals. About The Analysis Today's analysis wraps up our total team grades combining pass offense, run offense, receiving, run blocking, and pass blocking team grades with the defensive grades, pass coverage, run stop, and pass rush. The average for each team determines how a team will be ranked heading into the 2021 NFL season. The Grade Scale The team grades use the individual player grades to get an average for each category. For offense, it's passing, run offense, run blocking, and pass blocking. As mentioned above, we use pass rush, run stop, and pass coverage for the defense. The scale is a 1 to 10 rating scale, with one being the lowest and ten being the highest. On average, based on preliminary analysis, a grade of 6 to 6.99 is a playoff-caliber position group, or if the entire offensive grade is in the area of 6 to 6.99, that will represent a playoff-caliber offense. A seven or higher average represents a Super Bowl Caliber offense, defense, or position group. You can find all of our preseason NFL team grades by visiting our beta version of the Team and Player Grade Dashboard. Click Here To View Player And Team Grade Dashboard Top Ten (w/14 Teams Because of Ties) Projected NFL Teams Heading Into 2021 Today's analysis covers the top ten NFL teams using the grades from all offensive and defensive categories that we use to grade every NFL team. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TOTAL TEAM RANK: 1st OFFENSE: 1st DEFENSE: 1st Cleveland Browns TOTAL TEAM RANK: 2nd OFFENSE: 2nd DEFENSE: 6th Los Angeles Rams TOTAL TEAM RANK: 3rd OFFENSE: 7th DEFENSE: 2nd Baltimore Ravens TOTAL TEAM RANK: 4th OFFENSE: 4th DEFENSE: *9th (Tied w/Jets) Kansas City Chiefs TOTAL TEAM RANK: * 5th (Tied w/49ers) OFFENSE: 5th DEFENSE: 17th San Francisco 49ers TOTAL TEAM RANK: * 5th (Tied w/Chiefs) OFFENSE: 11th DEFENSE: 8th New Orleans Saints TOTAL TEAM RANK: * 6th (Tied w/Packers, Steelers) OFFENSE: 16th DEFENSE: 5th Green Bay Packers TOTAL TEAM RANK: * 6th (Tied w/Saints, Steelers) OFFENSE: 8th DEFENSE: *13th (Tied w/Colts) Pittsburgh Steelers TOTAL TEAM RANK: * 6th (Tied w/Packers, Saints) OFFENSE: 26th DEFENSE: 3rd Dallas Cowboys TOTAL TEAM RANK: 7th OFFENSE: 3rd DEFENSE: 23rd Denver Broncos TOTAL TEAM RANK: 8th OFFENSE: 21st DEFENSE: 7th Buffalo Bills TOTAL TEAM RANK: 9th (Tied w/Colts) OFFENSE: 9th DEFENSE: 16th Indianapolis Colts TOTAL TEAM RANK: 9th (Tied w/Bills) OFFENSE: 12th DEFENSE: *13th (Tied w/Packers) Washington Football Team TOTAL TEAM RANK: 10th OFFENSE: 25th DEFENSE: 4th

We have compiled every NFL team's personnel group usage since the 2018 season. What is the significance of analyzing a team's personnel group usage, and how can you use the data to your advantage? Click to Go To Personnel Group Analysis Dashboard The Role of Personnel Groups Varies By The Team At All Levels Personnel is dictated mainly by roster construction, and sometimes circumstances can dictate how a team utilizes particular personnel. For example, some run-heavy teams like to use multiple TE's more than others and might roster more TE's than other teams. Teams that use 12 personnel (1 back, two TE's) might be more run-heavy, but that doesn't always have to be the case. Some run-heavy teams use only one TE more often and are in an 11 Personnel (1 back, 1 TE) consistently. How Personnel Groups Can Be Used Strategically Teams at all levels of football will use personnel groups to dictate the type of personnel groups an oppossing team defense will trot out on the field. For example, a run-heavy offense might use 12 personnel at a 30% rate, and when in 12 personnel, they run the football 70% of the time on first down. Teams can use the personnel to dictate the defense's personnel and then break their tendency in a key moment. For example, let's say team X is up by 3 with 12:00 mins to go in the 4th QTR, and on 1st and ten, team Y, the defense has been loading the box matching your personnel with their bigger personnel throughout the game, and they have been giving you man to man on the outside. Now might be that critical moment to take that shot vs. man to man. Now, this is just one example of the strategic use of different personnel groups. The Most Common Personnel Groups Used Today 11 personnel remains the dominant personnel group in the NFL. From 2018-2019, 11 personnel (one back, one TE) usage in the NFL did drop by 5% YOY, and from 2019 to 2020, 11 personnel held steady at 60%. How and Why 11 Personnel Became Dominant? The evolution of 3 WR sets in football is where the transition from two TE run-heavy looks (12 personnel) and 2 Backs, one TE looks have evolved (21 personnel). In 2008, NFL teams used a higher rate of 12 and 21 personnel combined with 11 personnel still being the dominant grouping at 34%, 12 personnel, and 21 personnel accounted for 43%, and 22 personnel (two backs, two TE's) accounted for 10% of the average league total for personnel group usage in 2008. Let's fast forward to 2020; 22 personnel is nonexistent except for a few teams who employ a fullback and multiple TE's, and even those teams run a low rate of 22 and 21 personnel. Personnel groups have evolved to a higher rate of 11 personnel through the years because of the emergence of highly skilled slot receivers and RB's who excel both as pass catchers and pass blockers out of the backfield. In addition, some highly skilled RB's are even more versatile and can line up in the slot or flex out wide, which allows an OC to keep them on the field consistently in key passing situations as a receiver. The emergence of more athletic TE's has also elevated the use of 11 personnel. Instead of trotting out an additional slot receiver, teams can keep their TE's on the field and move them all around. TE's are no longer inline consistently and counted on as blockers; they are used in the slot, out wide, and the backfield. Top Five Teams By Personnel Usage We examined the top five NFL teams by the top three personnel groups used in the NFL. The top three, as mentioned above, are 11 personnel, 12 personnel, and 21 personnel. Top Five NFL Teams Who Utilized 11 Personnel (One Back, One TE) in 2020 NFL Average- 60% Cincinnati Bengals 11 Personnel Usage- 76% The Bengals 11 personnel usage is warranted, and the expectation is that it will continue in 2021. By drafting Ja'Marr Chase, the Bengals now can slide Tyer Boyd back inside to the slot, with Tee Higgins playing opposite of Chase on the outside. In addition, they possess versatility at RB with Joe Mixon, who can be an every-down back and is an excellent receiver out of the backfield. They can use a higher rate of 12 personnel with the emergence of TE Drew Sample and the player he replaced due to injury TE C.J. Uzomah. Pittsburgh Steelers 11 Personnel Usage- 75% The Steelers are a team we expect might drop in year over year 11 personnel usage. Still, they are so loaded at WR making any assertion other than them maintaining a 75% 11 Personnel usage might be invalid. The one argument is that they drafted TE Pat Friermuth from Penn State, who will team up with Eric Ebron at TE in 2021. Kansas City Chiefs 11 Personnel Usage- 73% The Chiefs are an air raid offense built around having a versatile 11 personnel. The RB's in this offense must be good receivers, and the TE must line up all over the formation and use his athleticism for mismatch advantages. One of those boxes has been checked with Travis Kelce at TE, while the RB is in question. CEH is a good receiver and an adequate runner. As a result, the Chiefs should maintain a top-five status in 11 personnel usage in 2021 using three wide receivers, one TE, and one back. Team to Watch Jacksonville Jaguars 11 Personnel Usage- 73% The Jags will be interesting to watch in 2021. Urban Meyer is testing the idea of using more 21 personnel based on his statement on Ettiene working as a WR. Of course, Etienne is a RB, and to believe anything otherwise is silly, but Urban Meyer envisions his role in the offense for 2021 to be Percy Harvin-esque. This means you have another mismatch style back in Etienne paired with James Robinson on the field all at once. We already know Robinson has strong receiver ability, and Etienne, coming out of Clemson, showed us his ability as a high-level receiver. The Jags are an exciting team to keep an eye on regarding how they might change the game in personnel usage. If the Urban Meyer two RB thought process works, other teams will, of course, try to mimic what the Jags do. New York Jets 11 Personnel Usage- 72% Top Five Teams Who Utilized 12 (One Back, Two TE's) Personnel In 2020 NFL Average- 20% Tennessee Titans 12 Personnel Usage- 35% Philadelphia Eagles 12 Personnel Usage- 35% Team To Watch Arizona Cardinals 12 Personnel Usage- 30% The Cardinals used nearly four times the amount of 10 personnel (one back, zero TE's) in 2019 than the next team. In 2020, they flipped their personnel usage to a more NFL-centric approach using more 11 and 12 personnel. Kingsbury learned that there is a big difference between the college and NFL game in that 10 Personnel cannot be a base level group like it is in the college game. As a result, the Cardinals surrendered 50 sacks in 2019 (bottom third). 21 of the 50 sacks surrendered in 2019 happened when they were in 10 personnel. They improved in 2020, allowing only 29 total sacks, partly related to decreased ten personnel usage. Los Angeles Rams 12 Personnel Usage- 29% Houston Texans 12 Personnel Usage- 28% Top Five NFL Teams Who Used 21 (Two Backs, One TE) Personnel In 2020 NFL Average- 8% New England Patriots 21 Personnel Usage- 37% Team To Watch San Francisco 49ers 21 Personnel Usage- 33% The 49ers are one of a handful of teams who use a traditional FB. The 49ers are run-heavy, and they rely on the use of constraint-style plays that can get LB's in a bind. The TE in this offense has to be a good blocker and a pass-catcher, and they have that part covered. The 49ers might be even more 21 personnel heavy, with an athlete potentially starting at the QB position in Trey Lance. With or without Lance starting in 2021, don't expect much to change in their offense or personnel usage style. Minnesota Vikings 21 Personnel Usage- 26% Baltimore Ravens 21 Personnel Usage- 18% Green Bay Packers 21 Personnel Usage- 14%

Over the last five weeks, we have covered the top offenses and defenses using different categories. For offense, we graded and ranked passing offense, run offense, receivers, run blocking, and pass blocking. On the defensive side of the football, we graded and ranked the top pass-rush, run stop, and pass coverage defenses. The results of each, when combined, provide us with a preseason situational analysis grade for both the offense and defense of every NFL team that we use to determine NFL power rankings, the strength of schedule for all teams, and projected win totals. About The Analysis Today's analysis wraps up our total offensive team grades combining passing offense, run offense, run blocking, and pass blocking team grades. The average for each team determines how a team will be ranked heading into the 2021 NFL season. The Grade Scale The team grades use the individual player grades to get an average for each category. For offense, it's passing, the run offense, receivers, run blocking, and pass blocking. As mentioned above, we use pass rush, run stop, and pass coverage for the defense. The scale is a 1 to 10 rating scale, with one being the lowest and ten being the highest. On average, based on preliminary analysis, a grade of 6 to 6.99 is a playoff-caliber position group, or if the entire offensive grade is in the area of 6 to 6.99, that will represent a playoff-caliber offense. A seven or higher average represents a Super Bowl Caliber offense, defense, or position group. You can find all of our preseason NFL team grades by visiting our beta version of the Team and Player Grade Dashboard. Click Here To View Player And Team Grade Dashboard Top Ten Projected NFL Offenses Heading Into 2021 Today's analysis covers the top ten NFL defenses using the grades from the five offensive categories (passing offense, run offense, receivers, run blocking, and pass blocking). Tampa Bay Buccaneers TOTAL OFFENSE RANK: 1st PASS OFF: 1st RUN OFF: 9th REC: 1st RUN BLOCK: *1st (Tied w/49ers) PASS BLOCK: 7th (Tied w/Steelers, Jags, Rams) Cleveland Browns TOTAL OFFENSE RANK: 2nd PASS OFF: 12th RUN OFF: 2nd REC: 10th RUN BLOCK: 2nd PASS BLOCK: 1st Dallas Cowboys TOTAL OFFENSE RANK: 3rd PASS OFF: 7th RUN OFF: 8th REC: 2nd RUN BLOCK: 13th PASS BLOCK: 5th Baltimore Ravens TOTAL OFFENSE RANK: 4th PASS OFF: 17th RUN OFF: 3rd REC: 15th RUN BLOCK: *6th (Tied w/Cards, Bills, Chiefs, Chargers) PASS BLOCK: 6th Kansas City Chiefs TOTAL OFFENSE RANK: 5th PASS OFF: 2nd RUN OFF: 18th REC: 4th RUN BLOCK: *6th (Tied w/Cards, Bills, Ravens, Chargers) PASS BLOCK: 14th Arizona Cardinals TOTAL OFFENSE RANK: 6th PASS OFF: 15th RUN OFF: 15th REC: 18th RUN BLOCK: *6th (Tied w/Ravens, Bills, Chiefs, Chargers) PASS BLOCK: 2nd Los Angeles Rams TOTAL OFFENSE RANK: 7th PASS OFF: 10th RUN OFF: 12th REC: 12th RUN BLOCK: 4th PASS BLOCK: 7th (Tied w/Steelers, Jags, Bucs) Green Bay Packers TOTAL OFFENSE RANK: 8th PASS OFF: 3rd (*W/Rodgers) RUN OFF: 6th REC: 16th RUN BLOCK: 16th PASS BLOCK: 4th Buffalo Bills TOTAL OFFENSE RANK: 9th PASS OFF: 4th RUN OFF: 21st REC: 8th RUN BLOCK: *6th (Tied w/Ravens, Cards, Chiefs, Chargers) PASS BLOCK: 20th Tennessee Titans TOTAL OFFENSE RANK: 10th PASS OFF: 6th RUN OFF: 1st REC: 3rd RUN BLOCK: 11th PASS BLOCK: 30th

Over the last five weeks, we have covered the top offenses and defenses using different categories. For offense, we graded and ranked passing offense, run offense, run blocking, and pass blocking. On the defensive side of the football, we graded and ranked the top pass-rush, run stop, and pass coverage defenses. The results of each, when combined, provide us with a preseason situational analysis grade for both the offense and defense of every NFL team that we use to determine NFL power rankings, the strength of schedule for all teams, and projected win totals. Check Out Our Previous Analysis Top Five Pass Rush Defense Top Five Run Stop Defense Top Five Pass Coverage Defense About The Analysis Today's analysis wraps up our total defensive team grades combining pass rush, run stop, and pass coverage team grades. The average for each team determines how a team will be ranked heading into the 2021 NFL season. The Grade Scale The team grades use the individual player grades to get an average for each category. For offense, it's passing, run offense, run blocking, and pass blocking. As mentioned above, we use pass rush, run stop, and pass coverage for the defense. The scale is a 1 to 10 rating scale, with one being the lowest and ten being the highest. On average, based on preliminary analysis, a grade of 6 to 6.99 is a playoff-caliber position group, or if the entire offensive grade is in the area of 6 to 6.99, that will represent a playoff-caliber offense. A seven or higher average represents a Super Bowl Caliber offense, defense, or position group. You can find all of our preseason NFL team grades by visiting our beta version of the Team and Player Grade Dashboard. Click Here To View Player And Team Grade Dashboard Top Ten Projected NFL Defenses Heading Into 2021 Tampa Bay Buccaneers TOTAL DEFENSE RANK: 1ST RUN D 6TH PASS COV 2ND PASS RUSH 1ST Los Angeles Rams TOTAL DEFENSE RANK: 2ND RUN D: 2ND PASS COV: 8TH PASS RUSH: 4TH Pittsburgh Steelers TOTAL DEFENSE RANK: 3RD RUN D: 3RD PASS COV: 11TH PASS RUSH: 3RD Washington Football Team TOTAL DEFENSE RANK: 4TH RUN D: 5TH PASS COV 21 PASS RUSH: 2ND New Orleans Saints TOTAL DEFENSE RANK: 5TH RUN D: 1ST PASS COV: 24TH PASS RUSH: 8TH Cleveland Browns TOTAL DEFENSE RANK: 6TH RUN D: 10TH PASS COV: 4TH PASS RUSH: 7TH Denver Broncos TOTAL DEFENSE RANK: 7TH RUN D: 4TH PASS COV: 1ST PASS RUSH: 13TH San Francisco 49ers TOTAL DEFENSE RANK: 8TH RUN D: 7TH PASS COV: 14TH PASS RUSH: 9TH Baltimore Ravens TOTAL DEFENSE RANK: 9TH RUN D: 3RD PASS COV: 3RD PASS RUSH: 14TH New York Jets TOTAL DEFENSE RANK: 10TH RUN D: 11TH PASS COV: 30TH PASS RUSH: 5TH

The third and final phase of our defensive team grades is passing coverage defense. Team coverage grades/rankings are often measured by third-level defenders' performance (corners, safeties). For us, we like to analyze the second and third levels (LB's, CB's, S's) of the defense when determining a pass coverage grade. Metrics Used to Analyze Pass Coverage. There are multiple ways you can measure the success of pass coverage. You have the traditional way (INT's, PBU's, TD's), and yards per game allowed. These numbers are essential, but the devil is in the details. What we do is we examine the league's top defenses vs. the pass in terms of yards allowed; we then look at other factors such as yards per target allowed and completion rate by a defender in coverage. Another key metric to consider is passer rate when targeted. How Pass Coverage Affects the Sum Of The Whole The best defenses have identifiable traits. Some defenses possess a great pass rush defense; others are very good vs. the run, some are great in coverage. Bringing all three of these phases together is the goal of every defensive coordinator. Each category that we analyze coordinates with the other in some capacity. For Example, a team with a great pass rush and not-so-great defenders in coverage on the back end are only as good as the pass rush. If you pass rush or aggressive blitz philosophy doesn't get to the QB, especially in the NFL, you are toast. Pass coverage is often only as good as the pass rush, and there are times where a secondary can mask a poor pass rush by playing great coverage for long enough that the pressure gets home. So the main point, pass coverage, and pass rush are joined at the hip, while run defense sets up your pass rush and pass coverage to be successful on late downs by keeping offenses behind schedule. The Projected Top Five Pass Coverage Defenses For 2021 (1st) Denver Broncos Team Grade: 7.00 The Broncos were a 5-11 team in the AFC West a season ago. Inconsistency on both sides of the football including their secondary led the Broncos into the offseason looking to fill voids with high-level players. In 2021, Denver's secondary is full of high-level talent with Kyle Fuller, Ronald Darby, and top-10 pick Patrick Surtain II, all of which will compete, get onto, or stay on the field. Add in Bryce Callahan, who will play in the nickel, and you have the deepest group of corners in the NFL. We haven't even mentioned the two safeties who are arguably going to be the best tandem in the NFL in Justin Simmons and Kareem Jackson. Ronald Darby is the lowest graded player in pass coverage, and he is still a high-level player. The LB's Josey Jewell and Alexander Johnson are also good pass coverage defenders, which further strengthens the league's best pass coverage defense in the NFL (on paper) heading into 2021. Denver By The Numbers The Broncos pass defense ranked in the middle third of the NFL in total yards allowed in 2020; they ranked in the middle of the league in total first downs allowed in coverage. The Broncos were strong in not allowing teams to score on them through the air in 2020. Where they needed to improve in 2020 is giving up explosive plays. The Broncos ranked 4th from last, giving up 59 pass plays of more than 20 yards in 2020. On third down, the Broncos did not do a great job though it was adequate of preventing opponents from converting through the air (40.5%), ranking in the league's middle third. Denver's ability to apply pressure and hurry a QB moving them off their spot in 2020 was a strength that the new secondary will strengthen in 2021. (2nd) Tampa Bay Buccaneers Team Grade: 6.86 The Super Bowl Champs return everyone from last year's defense. That's all nothing more to see here. But seriously, how? Tom Brady is the architect or the glue that bound this roster in 2020, and more than that, he changed the culture and the mindset of a franchise marred by mediocrity. So why is Brady being discussed in the analysis of defensive coverage? Because Tom Brady completed the sum of the whole in Tampa. His presence and his ability elevated the entire team on both sides of the football. The year prior, Jameis Winston famously (no pun) threw thirty interceptions which is not suitable for a defense to be successful. Defense is predicated on getting stops and creating field position advantages for an offense. When the offense turns over the football at a high rate, you put pressure on your defense, giving the opponent short fields and extra opportunities and further tiring the defense with added possessions. The entire Bucs secondary is graded as average to star on the rise, with Jamel Dean leading the way at CB. At safety, the Bucs have two outstanding players, including second-year all-rookie player Antoine Winfield. LB Lavonte David possesses the highest pass cover grade of all players on the Bucs. The one soft spot is Sean Murphy-Bunting, who plays the nickel and can play outside, and even Bunting has an average to above-average grade potential in 2021. Tampa By the Numbers A significant measure to examine year over year from 2019 to 2020 is the average field position defense. In 2019, the Bucs opponents started possessions at their 31-yard line on average vs. 2020, where the opponents began at their own 28. The Bucs ranked third-worst in the NFL in 2019 in average field position defense; they improved to 13th best. The Bucs defense also improved in score percentage on a per drive basis from 39.4% of their opponents, ending in points (Bottom third) to 33.7% (top third). The Bucs blitzed their opponents at the 4th highest rate (39%) in 2020, yet they maintained a top third-lowest percentage of being out of position to make a tackle. The Buc's aggressiveness didn't lead them to give up an excessive number of explosive plays. Their aggressiveness and high usage of man coverage would lead some to believe they would have, but they were in the top third in explosive plays allowed in 2020. The Bucs were near the top of the NFL in 2020 in total sacks. (3rd) Cleveland Browns Team Grade: 6.75 There is a wild possibility that we see a Super of Cleveland vs. Tampa Bay. The Browns are arguably the most complete team outside of Tampa Bay heading into 2021. The edition of John Johnson and Ronnie Harrison at safety gives the Browns one of the best safety tandems in the league. Add in the potential of Grant Delpit, and the Browns have the potential to be the deepest and most talented safety unit in the NFL. John Johnson brings his near-elite coverage skills with him from the Rams, and Ronnie Harrison is on the cusp of becoming a near-elite coverage defender. The corners are bolstered by Denzel Ward, who graded above average a season ago but can climb higher. The Browns added Troy Hill to play in the nickel, a player with an above-average grade. The question mark is how well Grant Newsome, the rookie from Northwestern, can adapt to the NFL. Newsome was our 32nd ranked player on our big board and the 4th rated CB entering the 2020 NFL draft. Cleveland By The Numbers The Browns were solid on defense a season ago, but they did give a lot of explosive plays ranking in the middle of the NFL with 49 plays allowed of 20+ yards or more through the air. 10 of the 49 explosive plays allowed went for 40+. They answered the bell in the offseason by employing two big-time safeties to protect the back half of their defense. (4th) Baltimore Ravens Team Grade: 6.71 The Ravens could arguably possess the top secondary in the NFL. They ranked 6th in yards allowed and 3rd in yds per pass attempt in 2020. Their strength is at CB, where they have Jimmy Smith, Marcus Peters, and Marlon Humphrey. All three are highly graded players. The back half of the secondary employs two very good safeties in DeShon Elliott and Chuck Clark. Baltimore By The Numbers The Ravens blitz a lot, but they are multiple in their coverage scheme, allowing them to succeed with blitzing while not giving up many explosive plays. The Ravens allowed the third-lowest total of explosive plays through the air in 2020 while still ranking in the bottom third of the out-of-position tackle rate. (5th) Buffalo Bills Team Grade: 6.67 The Bills ranked top third in the NFL in explosive deep plays in 2020. In 2021, they return one of the best safety tandems in the league and corner(s) Tre'Davious White and Levi Wallace, both of which are high-quality players with WHite leading the way. Taron Johnson will head the nickel corner. Bills By The Numbers Protecting against the deep ball a season ago was vital for the Buffalo defense. Sean McDermott, who uses a lot of zone coverage, primarily cover three, is one reason they successfully protect against the deep ball. The Bills allowed 25 plays of 20+ yards through the air, which ranked 3rd in the NFL a season ago. Even with a 36% blitz rate, the Bills remained disciplined enough in their secondary to protect against the explosive plays.

Run Stops/Success Rate In football, situation matters, from field position, down and distance, the QTR, time left, etc. There are a lot of elements that need consideration when evaluating the success of one play vs. another. In this analysis, we are using run stop success as one of the measures to grade and rank the best NFL rush defenses. How to Measure Run Stops We measure a win or a loss on a single defensive play in any situation run or pass using the following based on down and distance. 1st and 10 hold the offense under 4 yards (if 1st down is a different distance, hold the opponent under 40 percent of the yardage) 2nd down Hold the offense under 1/2 the distance for a first down (if 2nd and 6, hold under 3 yards), 3rd Down hold the offense less than distance for conversion, 4th Down hold the offense less than distance for conversion. Third Down Average Yds To Go (Behind Schedule) I often talk about on-schedule off-schedule plays when evaluating a team. One of the ways to keep your opponent off schedule, as alluded to above, is to hold them under a particular percentage of yards gained based on down and distance (See how to measure run stops above). If a team is ultimately in a 3rd down and 4+ yards to go, that is a victory for a defense. Why Keeping Your Opponent Off Schedule Is Important? Keeping the offense off schedule limits their play calling opportunities. The longer the distance on a third-down play, the more obvious their play-calling becomes, and that is where the sum of the whole comes into play. You can limit your opponent as much as you want, but if you cannot apply an effective pass rush in critical third-down situations and your pass coverage is unable to their job, keeping an opponent off schedule becomes useless. The best teams in football are able to consistently keep their opponent off schedule, apply pass rush in critical moments, and are good at defending the passing game in critical moments. Missed Tackle Rate/Out Of Position The overall team missed tackle rate is also a value we take into consideration when evaluating a team. Missed tackle rate measures the total times a player is out of position or in position but somehow loses leverage and does not tackle the opposing ball carrier. We use total player snap counts to determine the total missed tackle rate. Other analyses include film analysis and overall player grade averages that give us a final team grade. (1st) New Orleans Saints Run Stop Grade: 7.71 The Saints defense against the run in 2020 ranked 5th in the NFL in yds per rush attempt total (3.9). The Saints DL returns its nucleus in 2021 with edge rusher Marcus Davenport, DT Shy Tuttle, DT David Onyemata, and rusher edge Cameron Jordan. Second-level defender Mario Davis (LB) and third-level defenders Malcolm Jenkins and Marcus Williams are all rated in the top tier of run stoppers in the NFL. The Saints have an elite or near-elite graded player at every level of their defense, with the core of their DL grading no lower than a tier two level one grade up to tier one elite. Saints By The Numbers In 2020, the Saints ranked in the middle of the league in run stops as a team, but they were very good at keeping offenses off schedule with an average yard(s) to go on third downs of 7.0. The Saints were also solid at preventing third-down conversions holding their opponents to a 38% average conversion rate (Top 3rd). The Saints were above league average and in the middle third in out-of-position tackling rate, and that lines up with their near top third blitz rate of 32% in 2020. The Saints did well to prevent plays of 15+ yards in 2020, ranking 6th in the NFL. The Saints were in the top third of score rate on a per drive scale in 2020 and five percentage points above league average. They also ranked in the top third of pts per drive allowed (1.9). (2nd) Los Angeles Rams Run Stop Grade: 7.40 The Rams rush defense has been a consistently good unit the last two years after ranking dead last in 2018 in yards per rush allowed (5.1). The rams improved their yds per rush average from 2018 to 2019 by a full yard and moved into the top third of NFL rush defenses. In 2020, the Rams improved once again, allowing 3.8 yds per att ranking 3rd in the NFL. The Rams will have a new DC (Raheem Morris) who replaces Brandon Staley, who parlayed his success the last few seasons into a head coaching gig. The Rams defense led by all-world DT and the elite-graded Aaron Donald will remain strong upfront in 2021. Donald leads a defensive front who ranked 5th in run stop rate in 2020, and he is paired with DT Sebastian Joseph-Day and DT A'Shawn Robinson up front. Robinson is the lowest graded player on the Rams defensive front receiving a tier two average starter grade. Robinson projected to play on the interior in the Rams base defense, while Donald generally flips inside in sub-packages (Nickel and Dime). The loss of Michael Brockers to the Lions will be an area to keep an eye on as the Rams try to continue their run stop ascension. The second level of the Rams defense is an area of concern as LB Kenny Young, and Micah Keyser received low grades vs. the run in 2020, making it difficult to project anything but moderate improvement in 2021. The Rams are arguably the best in the secondary, with all four players grading average to tier-one level three in run defense. The Rams no longer have tier one run defender John Johnson who is now in Cleveland; he will be replaced by a combo of safety defenders who are all highly graded to defend against the run in Jordan Fuller and Taylor Rapp. Rams By The Numbers The Rams were the 5th best team in stop rate in 2020; they had the third-lowest rate of plays where a defender was out of position to make a play in 2020, which shows up in the data on plays of 15+ yards or more where the Rams ranked 1st in 2020 (69). The Rams were also bottom third in blitz rate (25.4%). The Rams ranked in the top third of NFL defenses in third-down average yards to go, which is an indicator of first down and second down success rate (behind schedule). The Rams had the top defense in score rate (27.9%) and pts per drive (1.5) in 2020. (3rd) Pittsburgh Steelers Run Stop Grade: 7.17 The Steelers defense ranked middle third of the NFL in rush yds per attempt (3.8) in 2020, down from 3rd overall in 2019 (4.3). But don't let the YPC numbers fool you. The Steelers are very good upfront even after losing Bud Dupree. The Steelers, like the Rams, possess a strong first level that includes DL Tyson Alualu, Cameron Heyward, and Stephon Tuitt, all of which are highly graded run stoppers, with Heyward graded at a near-elite level. The Steelers have all-world player T.J. Watt, an elite-level run stopper on the edge of their defense. The other edge spot projects to be handled by Alex Highsmith, who replaces Dupree. Highsmith has the projectible upside, and we believe he will successfully replace Dupree. On the second level of their defense, the LB's are average to above-average vs. the run. Devin Bush returns from a 2020 ACL injury, and it is his sideline to sideline ability in run pursuit that allows the Steelers to be versatile. Bush is a player with a lot of potential yet to be realized. In the secondary, the Steelers have two strong run defenders on the back half in Minkah Fitzpatrick and Terrell Edmunds. The corners are the big question mark as they boast the lowest run grades. Steelers By The Numbers The Steelers led the NFL in stop rate in 2020 at a 62% clip vs. the run. One area of improvement that will be critical is their discipline in the run game. The Steelers were ranked in the bottom third of the NFL with a high out-of-position rate when making tackles or in pursuit, which is a testament to their aggressive nature on defense, boasting a 40% blitz rate in 2020. Another element that the out-of-position rate tells us to examine is explosive plays allowed. The Steelers ranked bottom third of the NFL in total plays of 15 Yards or more in 2020, with 20 of those coming in the run game. They were also guilty of giving up the big play while ranking in the top third of the NFL in average yards to go (9.3) when giving up the explosive play. The Steelers did rank top third in average third-down yards to (7.7) and also at the top of the NFL in 3rd down conversion rate allowed. The Steelers ranked 2nd in opponent score rate (29.3%) on a per drive basis and ranked 2nd in pts per drive allowed (1.6). (4th) Denver Broncos Run Stop Grade: 6.86 The Broncos have the pieces. Imagine a world where Aaron Rodgers is the QB leading this roster. The sum of the whole would be complete as we believe that even an elite offensive player can elevate the level at which a defense performs. The Broncos defense has talent at all levels, with more proven talent than unproven. The DL bolstered by Dre'Mont Jones and Shelby Harris, who are high-level run defenders in their own right, are surrounded by two of the league's top edge players in Bradley Chubb and Von Miller. On paper from past evals, Miller is the higher graded run defender on the edge of the Denver defense, with Chubb grading out at below average to average, with projected high upside potential. The second and third levels of the Broncos run defense boast Alexander Johnson and Josey Jewell, who are graded average to above average against the run. The secondary is strong vs. the run, with Simmons and Jackson grading out at a tier-one level. Broncos By The Numbers Denver ranked top third of run stop with a 53% stop rate, yet they were exploited in yards per carry (4.8) average ranking near the bottom of the league in 2020. Their out-of-position rate is in the middle third of the NFL, suggesting that they need to improve in this area. Similar to the Steelers, the Broncos also had 122 plays where they gave up 15+ yards. The Broncos were not as aggressive as the Steelers in the blitz department, suggesting that the Broncos must improve their play calling, player positioning, and technique. The Broncos were a fringe top third defense in the area of yds to go average on third down (7.1), and they were slightly above the league average in third-down conversion defense (36.5%) and the middle third of the NFL. The Broncos allowed opponents to score pts on 44.6% of drives ranking in the bottom third of the NFL and five percentage pts below league average in 2020. Den ranked below league average and in the bottom third in pts per drive allowed (2.2) in 2020. (5th) Washington Football Team Run Stop Grade: 6.83 The depth of talented players on Washington's defensive front is absurd. Chase Young, Montez Sweat man the edges, both rated as near-elite vs. the run. On the interior of the DL, they have Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne. Payne is tier-one level three vs. the run and a hair outside of the near-elite tier two-level, while Allen is below average to average. The second level of the defense will have a rookie paired with Jon Bostic, who has a poor 2020 run grade and doesn't have a lot of projected upside vs. the run. Rookie LB Jamin Davis, who the Football team drafted in the first round, was a late draft riser with impressive film. There is no doubt Davis has the talent, but this is the NFL. LB's are tested in multiple ways making discipline even more important, so expect opponents to try and exploit the LB's in Washington this season. The secondary players at the safety position grade as average to below-average vs. the run, while the corners are very strong. Ultimately, the success of this defense begins and ends with the front four in 2021. Football Team By The Numbers The Football Team ranked top third in run-stop rate (52%) and ranked 2nd in the league in out of position tackle rate (11%). Their defense held opponents to average third-down yds to go of 7.3 ranked in the top third. The Football Team ranked 4th in score rate on a per drive basis and 3rd in pts per drive allowed in 2020. They ranked middle third in blitz rate (32.4%), indicating their discipline in 2020 is high.

We are getting closer and closer to real football again, which means that it is time to start the player rankings conversations. Today we examine the top five overall (team) pass rush grades using our new individual player grade system that we developed in recent months. Click here to go to our 2021 NFL Offseason Guide How the Grade System Works The Football Scout 365 process and philosophy are predicated on the connection between advanced metrics and on-field play. The numbers can sometimes tell a different story than the film, and that is where our situational analysis plays a pivotal role in interpreting individual and team performance. Positional Group Grades In recent weeks, we have graded and ranked the top individual players by tier groups. Today's analysis covers the offensive line as a whole. By using the individual player grades, we can get an average grade by position group. The average grade will indicate the teams that possess the highest graded players at each position. Because we believe that certain position groups are only as good as the sum of the whole. You can view the complete player and team grade process by clicking here. Positional Grades Using a Philosophical Holism Approach Using a philosophical holism (the whole is greater than the sum of its parts) style to grading a position group will help us identify where the strengths and weaknesses reside at each position. Learn More About Holism Via Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy Some Average Grade Characteristics To Consider From Years Past Teams with a 6 grade or higher are playoff-caliber teams, while those at 7 or above are considered Super Bowl Contenders. Using the same premise for each position group, we can identify championship-caliber on non-championship caliber position groups. *Subject to change The Teams Whose Pass Rush Project At The Top Of The NFL In 2021 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Team Grade: 7.86 The Bucs return elite-level pass rusher Vita Vea in the middle of their defense with Ndamukong Suh to bolster the interior. Edge Rushers Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaq Barrett are two-tier one, level three defenders who combined to accumulate 124 of the Bucs 340 total pressures in 2020 and a combined 19 sacks. Washington Football team Team Grade: 7.71 The Washington Football Team enter the 2021 NFL season with a DL bookended by near elite-level defender Chase Young, who will climb to an elite level in due time, and Montez Sweat, a tier-one level three player who could ascend to near-elite level in 2021. With 255 total pressures as a group in 2020, the Football Team didn't reach the potential we project them to achieve in 2021. Washington's defensive front is capable of 300 pressures and 60 sacks in 2021. Pittsburgh Steelers Team Grade: 7.57 The Steelers lost Bud Dupree in free agency this offseason to the Titans, but they still have all-pro edge player T.J. Watt. Watt is in the elite grade level of pass rushers, paired with Cam Heyward and Stephon Tuitt, who are tier one, level three players. LA Rams Team Grade: 7.40 Aaron Donald led the NFL in pressures, and depending on where you employ your data, Donald had between 67 to 97 total pressures. Donald has opened the door for guys like Leonard Floyd to pick up ten sacks in 2020. As Donald goes, so will the Rams DL. New York Jets Team Grade: 7.33 Under new GM Joe Douglas and Head Coach Robert Saleh, the Jets added to their pass rush in free agency by snagging Sheldon Rankins, Vinny Curry, and Carl Lawson. The Jets already have young up-and-coming players, Quinnen Williams, Folorunso Fatukasi, making this one of the most intriguing defensive fronts in 2021.

The 2021 NFL season is less than 100 days away, and we are in the midst of full projection season. As we continue to finish our preseason statistical projections, we wanted to throw out a post covering five players to watch out for in 2021. The analysis parameters will include several factors such as statistical projections, recent year stats, current team situation, 2021 player grade projection. In some instances, we use additional outside data or scouting reports to support the analysis. Check out our preseason NFL guide. (Note) Our analysis will exclude highly projected players that missed all of or a high percentage of 2020 due to injury or other circumstances. Players such as Saquon Barkley and CMC are excluded from this list because obvious is obvious (They are elite when healthy). Check out the player and team grade dashboard (Beta). (#1). WR A.J. Brown Tennessee Titans Rec Grade: TIER 1 Level 2 Good 2021 Stat Projections: 138 Tgt, 1236 yds, 9 TD's A.J. Brown is a player on the rise in 2021. In 2020, he amassed nearly 1100 yards on 70 receptions. He tied for 10th in the NFL in yards per target with 10.1. Brown is the definition of yards after the catch savant who averaged 6.1 yards after the catch in 2020, ranking 6th among WR's with at least 50 targets. His ability to be physically dominant against DB's in the NFL in his first two seasons gives us reason to believe he will only continue to ascend. (Analysis prior to Julio Jones Trade). (#2). WR D.K. Metcalf Seattle Seahawks Rec Grade: TIER 1 Level 2 Near Elite 2021 Stat Projections: 131 Tgt, 1225, 8TD's Climbing up the charts like a BillBoard top 100 single, Metcalf has all of the potential to enter the elite level in 2021. His 1300 yards receiving ranked 7th in the NFL in 2020. Among WR's with at least 100 targets, Metcalf ranked 2nd to Calvin Ridley in average depth of target (13.7). Metcalf is a physical player with incredible deep-ball ability. The areas where Metcalf needs to improve, route running at the short and intermediate levels and limiting drops; once he improves in both, he will undoubtedly leap into the elite status. (#3). WR Terry McLaurin Washington Football Team Rec Grade: TIER 1, Level 2, Near Elite 2021 Stat Projections: 146 Tgt, 1110 Yds, 7 TD's McLaurin is possibly the most technically sound young WR in the NFL. A good route runner who can get consistent separation and who boasts 4.3 speed. McLaurin posted 1100 yards in 2020 while working with sub-par QB play. His ceiling is absolutely in the elite tier, and he has an opportunity to prove that with Ryan Fitzpatrick in the fold in 2021. The area where McLaurin will likely see an increase in 2021 will be his average depth of target. His ADOT dropped from 2019 (14.0) to 2020 (9.7). (#4). WR Chris Godwin Tampa Bay Bucs Rec Grade: TIER 1 Level 3 Above Average 2021 Stat Projections: Chris Godwin entered the 2020 season as a player who had elite-level WR written all over him with Tom Brady as his QB. He did not hit the elite level overall but did show why we believe he can reach the elite level of tier one. His route running ability is high-level, and his slot prowess is exactly what Tom Brady needs. Godwin still managed to post 800+ yards on 84 targets while playing in only 12 games. If he can stay healthy in 2021, he will likely be Tom Brady's favorite target. (#5) WR Jerry Jeudy Denver Broncos Rec Grade: Tier 2, level 1, Average 2021 Stat Projections: 108 Tgt, 915 Yds, 6 TD's Jerry Jeudy battled through drops and inconsistent QB play as a rookie in 2020, but he did show flashes of brilliance. His ability as a high-level route runner and finding holes in coverage are the two strengths that we believe Jeudy will continue to build on. Assuming that Denver continues forward with Drew Lock or Teddy B in 2021, Jeudy will play a masterful role in the success of either player, but let's also consider the trade rumors of Aaron Rodgers to Denver. Jeudy managed only 52 catches on 113 targets in 2020. Juedy vowed this offseason to improve his concentration to decrease his total drop rate. If he can do that, he will have the opportunity to enter into the tier one, level three range of WR's in 2021, with a ceiling that can soon reach tier one elite.