Will Jeremiah Smith & Ryan Williams Spark an NIL Bidding War In 2025?

As Jeremiah Smith and Ryan Williams emerge as generational talents, how much will Ohio State and Alabama need to spend to keep them in 2025?

Both players are performing at an elite level and are already being tagged as generational talents. NFL scouts are projecting that, if eligible, both players would be top 5 picks in the 2025 NFL Draft. So today, let's explore their value and the potential for both players to reset the NIL market in a massive way in 2025.

The NIL Landscape is Evolving Rapidly

The NIL landscape is changing fast, especially as freshman wide receivers like Jeremiah Smith at Ohio State and Ryan Williams at Alabama emerge as potential generational talents. Both athletes are projected to be top-5 picks in the 2025 NFL Draft, but they must wait two years to be draft-eligible due to NFL rules. The critical question is: How much NIL compensation will it take to keep both players at Ohio State and Alabama in 2025?

NFL Draft Potential Boosts Their NIL Value

If NFL evaluators believe both players are top-5 NFL Draft-worthy as true freshmen, that dramatically increases their value while still in college. Considering both players' importance to their schools' on-field success, it's easy to envision them resetting the NIL market in 2025, commanding far more than the current top NIL valuations.

NIL Valuations and the Transfer Portal's Impact

This shift wouldn’t be limited to NIL valuations calculated by platforms like ON3 or Opendorse, which account for performance, social influence, and exposure. The real potential lies in the leverage these players could have in the transfer portal, where they might leave for the highest bidder, driving their value even higher.

Top NIL Valuations for WRs in 2024:

1. Ryan Williams (FR, Alabama Crimson Tide) - $1.5M

2. Jeremiah Smith (FR, Ohio State Buckeyes) - $1.4M

3. Evan Stewart (JR, Oregon Ducks) - $1.1M

4. Emeka Egbuka (SR, Ohio State Buckeyes) - $866K

5. Luther Burden (JR, Missouri Tigers) - $859K

6. Tre Harris (SR, Ole Miss Rebels) - $828K

7. Tetairoa McMillan (JR, Arizona Wildcats) - $819K

8. Isaiah Bond (JR, Texas Longhorns) - $770K

9. Tez Johnson (SR, Oregon Ducks) - $688K

10. Tai Felton (SR, Maryland Terrapins) - $657K

A Top-5 NFL Rookie Contract Averages $7.5M Annually—Will Ohio State and Alabama Need to Allocate Up to 50% of Their NIL Budget to Keep Jeremiah Smith and Ryan Williams?

The average signing bonus for first-round wide receivers in this past 2024 NFL Draft was approximately $15.5 million. The average total contract value is about $20.5 million, and the average per-year value comes out to around $5.1 million.

1. Pick 4: WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (Arizona Cardinals)

   4 years, $35.3M ($22.5M signing bonus)Average per year: $8.83M

2. Pick 6: WR Malik Nabers (New York Giants)

   4 years, $29.2M ($18.1M signing bonus)Average per year: $7.3M

3. Pick 9: WR Rome Odunze (Chicago Bears)

   4 years, $25.0M (projected)Average per year: $6.25M

4. Pick 23: WR Brian Thomas Jr. (Jacksonville Jaguars)

   4 years, $14.5M (projected)Average per year: $3.63M

5. Pick 28: WR Xavier Worthy (Kansas City Chiefs)

   4 years, $13.79MAverage per year: $3.45M

6. Pick 31: WR Ricky Pearsall (San Francisco 49ers)

   4 years, $13.0M (projected)Average per year: $3.25M

7. Pick 32: WR Xavier Legette (Carolina Panthers)

   4 years, $12.4M ($5.8M signing bonus)Average per year: $3.1M

As Jeremiah Smith's and Ryan Williams's Roles grow, Ohio State and Alabama Could Face a Financial Dilemma in 2025—Will They Spend a Third or Half of Their NIL Budget on One Player or Risk Losing Him to Another Program?

As each week passes and these teams chase their goals—say Ohio State beats Michigan, wins the Big Ten, and takes home a national title, with Jeremiah Smith playing a huge role—his value will only continue to skyrocket. Ohio State and Alabama could be facing a difficult decision heading into the 2025 season. They might need to spend a third or even half of their NIL budget on one player, creating potential financial strain.

So, the real question becomes: how will they address this? Will they raise the necessary funds, or will they allow these players to transfer to other programs willing to offer more? I believe this is where programs that have installed a front office-style GM to oversee their program's NIL will become a much more valuable piece of the NIL puzzle. Schools and their collectives will need to figure out how much of their total NIL funds they will allocate to one player while maintaining the rest of their roster.

Remember, there is still no cap on NIL compensation, and there may never be one outside of what a school itself can offer. This means schools risk entering bidding wars to retain talent, which could destabilize their rosters. While raising the funds may not be difficult for Ohio State or Alabama in the short term, it may not be a sustainable trend in the long run.