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The 2024 NFL Draft's first round was highlighted by a quarterback showcase, with six quarterbacks selected, setting a record for the highest number taken in the first round since the common draft era began in 1967.
While Caleb Williams going No. 1 to the Chicago Bears was no surprise, there was some suspense about who would go second to the Washington Commanders. Washington chose LSU's Jayden Daniels, while North Carolina's Drake Maye went third to the New England Patriots. When the Atlanta Falcons selected Michael Penix Jr. at No. 8, it marked the first time in the common draft era that four quarterbacks were chosen within the first eight picks. Minnesota traded up to 10th overall with the New York Jets to draft J.J. McCarthy, and the Broncos took Bo Nix 12th overall.
In this analysis, I am going to rank and grade each of the 2024 NFL Draft quarterbacks based on their scheme fit and surrounding personnel. I will also provide some 2024 yards and touchdown projections for each QB. Each player drafted is in a unique situation. The Bears went out of their way to surround Caleb Williams with outstanding talent, while the Minnesota Vikings were already in a good place when they drafted J.J. McCarthy. However, a team like the Patriots has question marks about their skill players, and Drake Maye still needs time to develop.
The reality is that this is not a one-size-fits-all situation for every player. A few of these players will struggle in one way or another, but it is always a good exercise to identify the players who land in the best spots while also recognizing the players who landed in the not-so-great spots.
Coaching Scheme Fit Grade
This grade evaluates how well a player's skills and attributes align with the offensive or defensive system they are entering in the NFL. It considers how their play style, experience, and strengths match the strategies and preferences of the coaching staff.
A: Excellent fit. The player's abilities align perfectly with the team's schemes and coaching strategies.
B: Good fit. The player has most of the skills needed to succeed, with minor adjustments or development needed.
C: Average fit. The player fits the system in general but may face significant challenges or require substantial development.
D: Poor fit. There are notable mismatches between the player's style and the team's schemes that might hinder their success.
F: Very poor fit. The player's skills and the team's strategies are fundamentally misaligned, posing serious challenges for effective integration.
Surrounding Cast Grade
This grade assesses the quality and compatibility of the teammates surrounding the player, including the offensive line for a quarterback or the defensive line for a linebacker, as well as key skill position players.
A: Excellent support. The player has a strong, talented group of teammates that enhance their ability to perform and adapt.
B: Good support. The supporting cast is competent, providing the player with a solid foundation to succeed.
C: Average support. The team provides basic support, but improvements could significantly enhance the player’s performance.
D: Poor support. The supporting cast may hinder the player's ability to perform well due to lack of talent or poor fit.
F: Very poor support. The player is surrounded by teammates who are significantly below average, likely affecting their development and success.
These grades help in understanding the potential for a player to succeed in their new NFL environment by analyzing how well they fit into their team's system and the quality of the support they receive.
Bonus Fantasy Football Points Projections
The last part is a bonus for fantasy football readers. I added a projected high-low fantasy points projection using 4 points per TD pass and -2 per interception format for each of the quarterbacks in the analysis.
Rookie QB Scheme Fit and Situational Rankings
1). Caleb Williams - Chicago Bears
Height: 6'1" | Weight: 214 lbs
Projections: 3500-4000 passing yards, 25-30 passing TDs, 15-20 interceptions, 300-400 rushing yards, 3-5 rushing TDs
Fantasy Projection
High Projection: 320 Fantasy Points
Low Projection: 248 Fantasy Points
Overview:
Caleb Williams was the expected No. 1 overall pick, celebrated for his elite arm talent and mobility. His ability to make off-schedule throws and extend plays has made his transition to the NFL highly anticipated.
Play Style and Scheme Fit: Grade: A
Williams demonstrates exceptional improvisational skills and an ability to dissect defenses from the pocket. His adeptness at evading pass rushers and making accurate throws on the run aligns perfectly with Bears offensive coordinator Shane Waldron's system, which favors quick passes, play-action, and deep balls.
Supporting Cast: Grade: A
With targets like DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Keenan Allen, along with tight end Cole Kmet, Williams is well-equipped to thrive. His rushing ability, highlighted by 27 touchdowns over three seasons in college, adds a dynamic component to the Bears' offense.
Year One Starter?: Yes. Williams has been designated the starting quarterback following the trade of Justin Fields to Pittsburgh.
2). J.J. McCarthy - Minnesota Vikings
Height: 6'3" | Weight: 214 lbs
Projections: 3,000-3500 passing yards, 20-25 passing TDs, 14-19 interceptions, 250-300 rushing yards, 2-4 rushing TDs.
Fantasy Projection
High Projection: 285.0 Fantasy Points
Low Projection: 214.0 Fantasy Points
Overview:
J.J. McCarthy, chosen tenth by the Minnesota Vikings, brings a record of 27-1 as a college starter. His ability to execute tight-window throws and make plays under pressure makes him a valuable addition to the Vikings.
Play Style and Scheme Fit: Grade: A
McCarthy's efficiency, his clutch ability in key situations, and his proficiency in executing a similar style of offense at Michigan are well-matched with head coach Kevin O'Connell’s offensive strategies, which emphasize a balanced attack with dynamic playmaking. His ability to extend plays and execute on designed runs fits seamlessly into the Vikings' scheme.
Supporting Cast: Grade: A
Surrounded by playmakers like Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and tight end T.J. Hockenson, McCarthy is poised to succeed. The offensive line, highly ranked in both pass protection and run blocking in 2023, according to PFF, will support his transition to the NFL.
Year One Starter: McCarthy is not expected to start immediately with Sam Darnold on the roster, providing him time to develop under the guidance of new QB coach Josh McCown.
3). Michael Penix Jr. - Atlanta Falcons
Height: 6'3" | Weight: 218 lbs
Projections: 500-1000 passing yards, 5-10 passing TDs, 2-5 interceptions, 50 rushing yards, 0 rushing TDs
Fantasy Projection
High Projection: 74.0 Fantasy Points
Low Projection: 29.0 Fantasy Points
Overview:
After revitalizing his career at Washington, Michael Penix Jr. was selected eighth overall by the Atlanta Falcons. Known for his deep accuracy and quick decision-making, Penix is a playmaker and a leader poised to be the Falcons QB of the future.
Play Style and Scheme Fit: Grade: A
Penix is renowned for his arm strength and ability to navigate the pocket. His deep-ball accuracy and quick reads are ideally suited for a hybrid West Coast spread style of offense. The good news for Penix is that new Falcons OC Zac Robinson is a Sean McVay disciple who will likely deploy a similar style of offense to that of McVay, which focuses on the run and play-action pass games from various formations. The use of presnap motion and scheming guys open could be a staple in Atlanta for years to come.
Supporting Cast: Grade: A
Penix will benefit from a strong supporting cast, including dynamic receivers like Darnell Mooney and Drake London, and a tight end in Kyle Pitts with elite potential. Add in a three-down RB with elite pass-catching ability in Bijan Robinson with an offensive line that ranked 4th in pass protection last season; Penix is in a solid spot to develop.
Year One Starter?: Unlikely right away. Kirk Cousins is expected to remain the starter for the next few years, but Penix provides a solid backup option and potential future starter as he adapts to the NFL.
4). Bo Nix - Denver Broncos
Height: 6'2" | Weight: 214 lbs
Projections: 3,000-3500 passing yards, 15-20 passing TDs, 15-20 interceptions, 200-400 rushing yards, 1-4 rushing TD
Fantasy Projection
High Projection: 287.0 Fantasy Points
Low Projection: 209.0 Fantasy Points
Overview:
Bo Nix, drafted twelfth by the Denver Broncos, has evolved into a sound decision-maker with extensive experience from his time at Auburn and Oregon. His quick release and the ability to make plays on the run are what set him apart. He is also a good decision-maker and game manager.
Play Style and Scheme Fit: Grade: A
Nix's style aligns well with head coach Sean Payton’s system, which focuses on timing, rhythm, and tempo. His wealth of collegiate experience and ability to execute a detailed-oriented playbook make him a good fit for the Broncos’ offensive strategy.
Supporting Cast: Grade: B
While the Broncos' supporting cast, including receivers like Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims, and tight end Greg Dulcich, offers reliability and playmaking ability, the offensive line's effectiveness will be critical to Nix’s success. The line is expected to be solid, though the center position may require attention.
Year One Starter?: It depends on Payton's strategy and evaluation during training camp. Given Nix's extensive college experience and Payton's coaching style, he may see significant playing time early in his rookie year.
5). Jayden Daniels - Washington Commanders
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 210 lbs
Projections: 3,500-4000 passing yards, 15-20 passing TDs, 15-20 interceptions, 500-700 rushing yards, 5-8 rushing TDs
Fantasy Projection
High Projection: 348.0 Fantasy Points
Low Projection: 261.0 Fantasy Points
Overview:
Jayden Daniels selected second overall by the Washington Commanders, brings a dynamic dual-threat capability to the team. His collegiate success suggests a smooth transition to the professional level.
Play Style and Scheme Fit: Grade: B
Daniels excels at getting the ball out quickly and with precision when he likes the pre-snap look. His play style, combining quick decision-making with mobility, fits well into Offensive Coordinator Kliff Kingsbury's scheme, which leverages a QB's ability to escape pressure and extend plays. The core of his offense is the Air Raid. However, at times, it can be very vanilla, and that is why I am not completely sold on the fit. I know that people like to compare Jayden Daniels to Kyler Murray, and they instantly think this is a great match, but how did that work out in Arizona? I have always viewed Kingsbury's offenses in Arizona as stagnant, without a lot of motion and varying formational use. He did start to diversify these aspects as time went on, and his time at USC with Lincoln Riley could also improve his creativity. I am in a wait-and-see mindset, but I gave it a solid B overall.
Supporting Cast: Grade: B
While Daniels has elite targets like Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson, the Commanders' offensive line, which allowed 65 sacks last season, remains a concern and could limit his effectiveness unless improvements are made.
Year One Starter?: Yes. With a new owner, general manager, and coach, the Commanders are poised to start Daniels immediately, looking to rebuild and capitalize on his talents.
6). Drake Maye - New England Patriots
Height: 6'4" | Weight: 220 lbs
Projections: 2500-3000 passing yards, 16-20 passing TDs, 13-18 interceptions, 300-500 rushing yards, 2-5 rushing TDs
Fantasy Projection
High Projection: 281.0 Fantasy Points
Low Projection: 207.0 Fantasy Points
Overview:
Drake Maye, chosen third by the New England Patriots, is recognized for his strong arm and mobility. His proficiency in making off-platform throws and extending plays under pressure positions him as a formidable quarterback prospect.
Play Style and Scheme Fit: Grade: C
Maye has a good pocket presence and the ability to keep plays alive or pick up yards with his legs. Offensive Coordinator Alex Van Pelt will be tasked with building an offense that focuses on Maye's core strengths early on while he develops and improves his mechanics. The Patriots will likely lean on the run game a lot if Drake Maye is in the lineup as a rookie, and that will allow them to set up play-action opportunities. Van Pelt was not the primary playcaller in Cleveland; he was tasked with game planning and play design, so there are a lot of unknowns about Van Pelt and his ability to call plays. What we do know is that he is a true quarterback coach who has worked with Aaron Rodgers, Baker Mayfield, and, most recently, Deshaun Watson.
Supporting Cast: Grade: C
The supporting cast, including receivers like Kendrick Bourne, Juju Smith-Schuster, and K.J. Osborn, are not considered elite. Still, the offensive line, ranked 29th in pass protection last year, may hinder his ability to perform consistently, but the run blocking ranked at the top of the NFL and could be how they set things up offensively in 2024. The bottom line is that this is the toughest spot for any of the rookie quarterbacks to have landed, and the Patriots have a lot of work to do to get this offense in a place that can support a young quarterback.
Year One Starter?: Not initially. The Patriots have brought in Jacoby Brissett to mentor Maye, allowing him time to develop without the immediate pressure of starting.