.png){kind=small}
Buckeyes strive to prove their toughness, while the Ducks aim to validate their Big Ten readiness in a crucial 2024 showdown.
How to Watch: No. 3 Oregon Ducks take on the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes in one of 2024's biggest college football matchups. Preview and prediction for the showdown at Autzen Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 12, with kickoff at 7:30 p.m. on NBC.
The 2024 college football season is critical for the Ohio State Buckeyes, a team on a mission to redefine its reputation. Recent seasons have not been kind, as Ohio State faced stinging criticism after three consecutive losses to their arch-rival, Michigan, from 2021 to 2023. These defeats led many to label them a "finesse" team, and head coach Ryan Day knew that a cultural shift was necessary. With a renewed emphasis on physicality, particularly within the trenches, Ohio State looks to prove that it’s more than just hype. The upcoming showdown against the Oregon Ducks, who have recently joined the Big Ten, serves as the perfect proving ground for this transformation.
Oregon, on the other hand, is in the midst of its own adaptation process. Adjusting to the physicality and demands of Big Ten football has been a considerable challenge for the Ducks, who previously dominated in the less physical, speed-oriented Pac-12. Head coach Dan Lanning is guiding the team through this transition, with the matchup against Ohio State providing an opportunity to measure their progress. This isn’t just another regular-season contest; it’s a pivotal clash that could shape the identity of both programs. A decisive performance by Ohio State would validate their commitment to toughness, while a strong showing by Oregon would signal their readiness to be a competitive force in the Big Ten.
Ohio State Run Offense vs. Oregon Run Defense
Ohio State's Rushing Attack
Ohio State’s ground game has been a juggernaut, showcasing dominance across Power Four teams. The Buckeyes average 6.2 yards per carry and accumulate an impressive 221.6 rushing yards per game, placing them 2nd in yards per attempt nationally.
The dynamic backfield duo of Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson powers this efficiency. Judkins, averaging 7.8 yards per carry, has established himself as a consistent playmaker, while Henderson’s explosive 8.0 yards per carry adds another layer of threat to the Buckeyes’ ground attack.
Ohio State’s offensive line is anchored by standouts like Seth McLaughlin (PFF grade: 82.9) and Josh Simmons (PFF grade: 89.0), both instrumental in creating clean lanes for their running backs. This cohesive unit excels in minimizing stuff rates (13%) and maximizing yards after contact, making Ohio State a formidable challenge for any defensive front.
Can Oregon Contain the Ohio State Run Game?
Oregon's defense faces a significant test, as their performance against the run has shown inconsistencies. Ranked 51st in yards per attempt allowed and 47th in yards after contact per attempt, the Ducks struggle to maintain gap integrity consistently.
Jordan Burch (PFF grade: 63.9) and Derrick Harmon (PFF grade: 64.7) are key figures on the defensive line, yet they must elevate their performance to match Ohio State’s physical style of play. Oregon currently allows 4.8 yards per carry and 117.8 rushing yards per game, ranking 41st among Power Four teams in rushing yards allowed. To contain Ohio State's ground attack, these players must elevate their level of play and dominate at the point of attack.
Oregon Run Offense vs. Ohio State Run Defense
Oregon’s Ground Game
Oregon’s rushing attack, led by Jordan James, has been effective, averaging 4.6 yards per carry and totaling 164.4 yards per game. Although they rank in the middle of the pack among Power Four teams, their offensive line, spearheaded by Iapani Laloulu (PFF grade: 81.1) and Josh Conerly Jr. (PFF grade: 77.7), has demonstrated the ability to create lanes for explosive plays.
Oregon’s approach emphasizes breaking tackles, as shown by their 20% broken/missed tackle rate, highlighting their potential for generating yards after contact. However, against an elite Ohio State defensive front, Oregon's line must maintain its physicality and consistency. Laloulu and Conerly, as well as the rest of the Oregon offensive line, will need to win their individual matchups to open opportunities for James in the run game.
Ohio State's Stout Defensive Front
Ohio State’s defense ranks 3rd among Power Four teams, limiting opponents to just 3.2 yards per carry and 90.2 rushing yards per game while posting an impressive 27.5% stuff rate, showcasing their dominance in the trenches. Led by Tyliek Williams (PFF grade: 91.8) and Jack Sawyer (PFF grade: 85.1), the Buckeyes excel at controlling the line of scrimmage and disrupting run plays, making them a formidable force against any rushing attack.
Williams has been a standout in the trenches, using his strength to plug gaps and prevent runs from developing, while Sawyer’s ability to set the edge and chase down plays adds another layer of difficulty for opposing offenses.
Players in the Ohio State secondary have been outstanding in run support this season, led by Lathan Ransom (PFF grade: 93.8), who has been quick to read plays and close down lanes effectively. Caleb Downs (PFF grade: 76.6) and Jordan Hancock (PFF grade: 72.5) have also contributed significantly, showcasing their ability to provide support near the line of scrimmage.
Final Thoughts
Ohio State's Run Offense vs. Oregon's Run Defense: Ohio State’s powerful ground game, anchored by their dynamic running back duo and an elite offensive line, gives them a clear edge. Oregon's defense, despite the talents of players like Burch and Harmon, has shown vulnerabilities in containing yards per attempt, making them susceptible to Ohio State’s explosive rushing attack led by Judkins and Henderson.
Oregon's Run Offense vs. Ohio State's Run Defense: Ohio State’s defense will be a tough task for the Oregon offense, boasting one of the top-ranked defensive units in the country. With standout players at all three levels and an elite defensive front, the Buckeyes have consistently shut down opposing run games. Oregon may not have a lot of consistent success in the run game, but they cannot give up on it.
Ohio State Pass Offense vs. Oregon Pass Defense
Will Howard’s Efficiency Will Be Key
Ohio State quarterback Will Howard, while effective overall (71.5% completion rate), shows a decline in efficiency when it comes to deep throws. His completion rate on passes of 20+ yards stands at 45.5%. Despite averaging 17.8 yards per attempt on deep shots, inconsistency remains a concern.
Howard has completed only 5 of 11 deep attempts this season for 196 yards, with one touchdown and one interception. His adjusted deep accuracy percentage (45.5%) ranks him in the middle tier nationally compared to other elite quarterbacks.
This inconsistency provides Oregon an opportunity—if they can maintain coverage long enough to force Howard into challenging throws. However, for this to happen, the Ducks’ pass rush must be effective. Without consistent pressure, Oregon’s coverage grades suffer, and their defensive backs are more vulnerable.
Oregon’s Secondary Vulnerabilities
Oregon’s secondary, featuring players like Jabbar Muhammad and Brandon Johnson, faces one of its toughest tests against Ohio State's potent passing attack. With elite receivers like Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka, Oregon’s defensive backs must elevate their performance to contain Ohio State’s passing game.
Oregon allows an 18.8% completion rate on deep throws (20+ air yards). However, they become significantly more vulnerable without pressure. On non-pressured deep throws, Oregon allows an average of 11.1 yards per attempt and a passer rating of 33.8, highlighting that when the pass rush is absent, quarterbacks can exploit coverage gaps.
On the other hand, the secondary improves when pressure is applied, showing a 0% completion rate and 0 yards per attempt on pressured throws of 20+ yards yards or more. Nevertheless, their overall yards per coverage snap stands at 6.9, indicating that they tend to be substantial gains when deep throws connect.
While Oregon's secondary displays some resilience with a low completion percentage on deep throws, the data reveals significant issues when they fail to pressure the quarterback. The yards allowed per attempt (particularly in non-pressured situations) and the elevated passer rating indicate that teams with adequate time in the pocket can exploit Oregon's coverage. To mitigate these deep threats, Oregon must maintain consistent pressure to limit big plays.
Oregon Pass Offense vs. Ohio State Pass Defense
Can The Ducks Challenge The Buckeyes Through the Air?
Oregon’s passing game, led by quarterback Dillon Gabriel, averages 289.8 yards per game, placing them among the top 15 nationally. Gabriel has completed 78% of his passes for 1,449 yards and 11 touchdowns, displaying impressive efficiency and consistency.
Oregon’s ability to utilize playmakers like Tez Johnson and Traeshon Holden makes their passing game versatile, capable of attacking various levels of the defense. Johnson’s speed and route-running precision provide a consistent downfield threat, while Terrance Ferguson’s size as a tight end gives Gabriel a reliable option underneath and in the middle of the field.
Oregon’s offensive line, anchored by Iapani Laloulu (PFF grade: 81.1) and Josh Conerly Jr. (PFF grade: 77.7), has protected Gabriel effectively, ensuring he has time to find open targets. This protection will be critical as Oregon attempts to spread out Ohio State’s defense and exploit matchups against linebackers and safeties.
Can The Buckeye Secondary Keep The Ducks In The Pond?
Ohio State’s defense has been dominant against opposing pass offenses. Cornerback Denzel Burke (PFF grade: 71.6) and safety Lathan Ransom (PFF grade: 93.8) have excelled, allowing Ohio State to limit opponents to just 6.8 points per game.
The front seven, featuring Jack Sawyer (PFF grade: 85.1) and JT Tuimoloau (PFF grade: 77.1), has been relentless, recording 17 sacks this season. Sawyer’s ability to disrupt plays off the edge will be crucial in challenging Oregon’s offensive line.
Ohio State’s secondary, anchored by Burke, has also been effective at preventing big plays. Ransom’s versatility allows him to assist in coverage and support the run, forming a well-rounded and adaptable defense. The Buckeyes rank in the top 10 nationally in pass yards allowed per game and have consistently created turnovers, with 14 passes defended and four interceptions.
Final Thoughts
Ohio State's Pass Offense vs. Oregon's Pass Defense: Ohio State has a clear advantage with their dynamic quarterback-receiver duo and strong offensive line. Oregon’s secondary has shown potential weaknesses, and unless they can generate consistent pressure, Howard and his receivers are poised to exploit those weaknesses.
Oregon's Pass Offense vs. Ohio State's Pass Defense: Ohio State’s defense is well-positioned to contain Oregon’s passing attack. With dominant performances from their front and solid secondary play led by Ransom, the Buckeyes have consistently stifled opposing air games. Oregon’s success will depend on their ability to protect Gabriel and execute quick, efficient completions to counter Ohio State’s pressure.
Comments