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Evaluating the Michigan vs. Ohio State rivalry through the lens of NFL Draft success, recruiting, and on-field performance, highlighting Ohio State's consistent top-5 classes and Michigan's resurgence with three straight wins, Big Ten titles, and a national championship.
In this analysis, I aimed to examine how Michigan and Ohio State compare in terms of player development by evaluating the number of players each program places in the NFL. To do this, I reviewed data starting with the 2014 NFL Draft class to the current day, which includes players developed under two coaching regimes at each school: Urban Meyer (2012–2018) and Ryan Day at Ohio State (2019-current), versus the end of Brady Hoke’s tenure in Ann Arbor (2014) and the subsequent hiring of Jim Harbaugh.
The Hypothesis?
The hypothesis is straightforward: I want to evaluate each school’s overall success by examining total wins per season and whether there is a correlation with the number of NFL Draft prospects each school produces. Of course, several factors can influence this data. For example, Michigan lost nearly its entire offense from the 2023 National Championship team and is now under the leadership of a new head coach, Sherrone Moore, in 2024. As a result, they enter the season's final week at 6–5.
On the other hand, Ohio State, much like Michigan in 2023, managed to retain many of its top players through NIL deals. They also filled roster gaps with high-level talent from the transfer portal, positioning themselves for a run at the National Title in 2024. This contrast highlights how roster management strategies can significantly impact a program’s success in both player development and on-field performance.
With that said, this analysis will naturally have limitations and gaps. However, the focus here is on recognizing the immense talent these two programs have put on the field, particularly in recent years, as Michigan has bridged the gap and won three consecutive games in the rivalry.
Ohio State Football Is a Football Talent Factory
Let's start the analysis with a quick overview of the recruiting rankings since 2014. Using 247 Sports recruiting rankings from 2014 to 2024, it’s clear that Ohio State has consistently been an elite football talent factory, regularly ranking in the top 5 year after year. Michigan, while competitive with an average class rank in the top 15 during this period, has seen more success breaking into the top 10 in recent years. Ohio State outpaces Michigan with nearly all its classes ranked in the top 10 and a majority in the top 5, whereas Michigan has managed only one top 5 class and consistently lags behind in overall rankings.
Ohio State has consistently outperformed Michigan in recruiting rankings over the past decade, with nearly all its classes ranked in the top 10 and a majority in the top 5. Michigan, while showing competitiveness, has only one top 5 class and averages a significantly lower recruiting rank overall.
Recruiting Rankings Summary (2014–2024)
Average Recruiting Rank
Ohio State: 4.64
Michigan: 15.00
Top 10 Recruiting Classes
Ohio State: 10
Michigan: 5
Top 5 Recruiting Classes
Ohio State: 9
Michigan: 1
NFL Draft Breakdown (2014–2024)
Ohio State has consistently demonstrated its dominance in producing NFL-ready talent, with a total of 82 draft picks compared to Michigan's 72. This trend highlights Ohio State’s ability to develop players who transition to the next level effectively. The Buckeyes also maintain a significant edge in elite-level talent production, with 24 Day One picks—more than double Michigan’s 11. Ohio State continues to outperform in Day Two selections, with 31 picks compared to Michigan’s 24, further solidifying its reputation as a top-tier talent pipeline.
Michigan, while trailing in Day One and Day Two picks, leads in Day Three selections with 37 compared to Ohio State’s 27. This reflects Michigan’s ability to develop a broader pool of draftable players, even if those players typically lack the immediate impact associated with Day One or Day Two picks. Notably, this disparity aligns with recruiting trends, as Ohio State consistently ranks in the top 5–10 nationally, with an average recruiting rank of 4.6 since 2014.
Draft Data (2014–2024)
Total NFL Draft Picks
Ohio State: 82
Michigan: 72
Day One Picks (First Round)
Ohio State: 24
Michigan: 11
Day Two Picks (Rounds 2–3)
Ohio State: 31
Michigan: 24
Day Three Picks (Rounds 4–7)
Ohio State: 27
Michigan: 37
On-Field Performance: All Opponents (2014–2024)
When evaluating on-field performance, Ohio State has been the more dominant program over the past decade. Their consistency is reflected in their higher win totals, superior win percentage, and significantly fewer losses compared to Michigan. While Ohio State controlled the rivalry from 2014–2019, Michigan has shifted the balance in recent years, highlighted by their three consecutive wins since 2021. The following breakdown provides a clearer picture of each program’s performance against all opponents and in head-to-head matchups.
Overall Performance (2014–2024)
Total Wins:
Ohio State: 125
Michigan: 100
Win Percentage:
Ohio State: 89%
Michigan: 70%
Total Losses:
Ohio State: 16
Michigan: 37
Head-to-Head Rivalry (2014–2023)
Record:
Ohio State: 7 wins
Michigan: 3 wins
Average Margin of Victory:
Ohio State (2014–2019): 18.17 points per game
Michigan (2021–2023): 14.33 points per game
The Recent Trends and Michigan's Resurgence (2021–2024)
Michigan has averaged 9 NFL Draft picks per year over the past three drafts, surpassing Ohio State's 5.3 picks. Its three consecutive wins in the rivalry, three Big Ten titles, and a national championship in 2023 underscore just how dominant Michigan has been in the head-to-head vs. Ohio State both on the field and in the NFL Draft.
Conclusion: Evaluating Michigan vs. Ohio State Player Development and Success (2014–2024)
Based on this analysis, Ohio State has consistently outperformed Michigan in several key areas tied to player development and overall success. The Buckeyes' dominance in recruiting rankings, NFL Draft productivity, and on-field performance highlights their sustained position as a top-tier program. Ohio State's ability to consistently rank in the top 5 for recruiting, produce elite Day One and Day Two NFL talent and maintain an 89% win percentage underscores their long-term efficiency in developing top-caliber players.
However, Michigan's recent resurgence has shifted the dynamics of this rivalry. With three consecutive wins over Ohio State, three Big Ten titles, and a 2023 National Championship, Michigan has demonstrated its ability to close the gap both on the field and in NFL Draft productivity. Michigan's increase to an average of nine NFL Draft picks per year over the past three drafts reflects its improved ability to develop talent. But moving forward without Jim Harbaugh, can Michigan maintain this level of consistency?
Key Insights:
Recruiting Rankings: Ohio State's average rank of 4.64 is significantly better than Michigan's 15.00, with the Buckeyes securing nearly all of their classes in the top 10. Michigan, while competitive, has only achieved one top-5 class in the past decade.
NFL Draft Productivity: Ohio State leads with 82 total draft picks since 2014, compared to Michigan's 72. The Buckeyes dominate in Day One (24 vs. 11) and Day Two (31 vs. 24) picks, reflecting their edge in producing elite NFL-ready talent.
On-Field Performance: Ohio State's 125 wins and 89% win percentage outshine Michigan's 100 wins and 70% win percentage, though Michigan has been the dominant force in the rivalry since 2021, averaging a 14.33-point margin of victory during this period and winning 93% of their games from 2021 to 2023.
Final Assessment of the Hypothesis:
The hypothesis—evaluating success through wins per season and NFL Draft productivity—holds true in this comparison. Ohio State's correlation between recruiting dominance, elite NFL talent production, and on-field success is evident. Michigan, while less consistent historically, has leveraged improved recruiting, player development, and on-field performance to significantly narrow the gap in recent years.