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Evaluating quarterbacks for the NFL Draft requires a balance of film study and advanced analytics to understand a player’s current skill set and projectable upside. At Football Scout 365, our model integrates these factors into a comprehensive quarterback grading system, blending technical proficiency, situational effectiveness, and playmaking ability to determine a quarterback’s long-term value at the NFL level.
This ranking system does not exist in isolation. Instead, it provides valuable cross-class comparisons, evaluating both the 2024 and 2025 NFL Draft quarterback classes in the same framework. By applying the same methodology across multiple classes, we gain a realistic perspective on how this year's top QB prospects compare to last year’s first-round picks and risers. This gives NFL front offices, scouts, and fans a better understanding of how these prospects might translate to the league.
Our model assigns 50% weight to film evaluation, ensuring a prospect's mechanics, decision-making, and processing ability hold the highest importance. The remaining 50% comes from data-driven efficiency metrics, focusing on a quarterback’s ability to create positive outcomes in both passing and rushing situations.
The Key Components of Our Evaluation Model
1. Film Grade (50% of Total Score) – The Foundation of Projection
Film study remains the most critical piece of quarterback evaluation. Every quarterback is assigned both a Final Grade (evaluating their current NFL readiness) and a Ceiling Grade (assessing their long-term potential).
Final Grade: Reflects a QB’s projected value entering the NFL based on film and performance metrics.
Ceiling Grade: Projects their maximum potential if they develop properly.
Why It Matters:
Traits like footwork, arm mechanics, pocket presence, field vision, and decision-making cannot be captured fully by raw statistics, making film study the cornerstone of projection.
To ensure consistency and objectivity, we rank each quarterback’s Ceiling Grade against the entire dataset, assigning a percentile rank (0-99%) to reflect their film-based potential compared to peers.
2. Expected Points Added (EPA) – Measuring a QB’s Real Impact
EPA (Expected Points Added) is the gold standard for evaluating a quarterback’s efficiency. Instead of just counting yards or touchdowns, EPA assigns a value to every play, determining whether a quarterback increased or decreased their team's chance of scoring.
What Is EPA?
Each play starts with an expected point value based on down, distance, and field position.
A positive EPA means the play improved the team's chance of scoring.
A negative EPA means the play hurt the team’s scoring chances.
Why It Matters:
Unlike traditional stats, EPA reflects a QB’s ability to consistently create positive outcomes, rather than just accumulating raw production. We assess quarterbacks based on their EPA percentile rankings in multiple key areas:
✅ 3rd Down 5+ Passing EPA (20%) – How well a QB performs in the most challenging passing situations (3rd and 5 or longer). These are must-pass downs that separate good quarterbacks from great ones.
✅ 3rd Down Running EPA (10%) – A QB’s ability to extend drives with their legs on critical downs. Mobile QBs who can create on 3rd downs add significant value to modern NFL offenses.
✅ All Passing Plays Total EPA (10%) – A measure of overall passing efficiency, capturing how well a quarterback creates positive plays across all downs.
✅ All Downs Running EPA (10%) – How effective a QB is as a scrambler outside of designed runs, highlighting their ability to create offense off-script.
3. Positive Play Rate, Boom%, and Bust% – The Hidden Indicators of QB Success
In addition to EPA-based rankings, we assess quarterbacks using Positive Play Rate, Boom%, and Bust%—advanced metrics that quantify consistency and explosiveness in a quarterback’s performance.
Positive Play Rate (% of Plays That Increase Expected Points)
Measures how often a quarterback creates a net-positive outcome for their offense.
A higher rate means greater consistency in moving the ball.
Boom Rate (% of Plays That Create a Large EPA Gain)
Captures how frequently a QB produces explosive plays that significantly impact scoring chances.
High Boom% indicates big-play ability, but extreme volatility could signal risk-taking tendencies.
Bust Rate (% of Plays That Severely Decrease Expected Points)
Measures the frequency of game-changing mistakes like sacks, interceptions, or drive-killing negative plays.
A lower Bust% is ideal, reflecting a QB’s ability to avoid costly errors.
Why This Model Is a Great Way To ID Future NFL Potential
By combining film grades with advanced efficiency metrics, this model paints the clearest picture of a quarterback’s true value and long-term NFL projection.
📌 Film remains KING – The best NFL QBs demonstrate consistent mechanics, processing ability, and pocket presence that only film can reveal.
📌 Clutch Play Matters – Quarterbacks who thrive in 3rd & 5+ passing situations translate well to the NFL, where success on high-leverage downs determines games.
📌 Athleticism Adds Value – Modern QBs must be functional runners, either to extend plays or pick up first downs when needed.
📌 Explosiveness vs. Efficiency – While big-play ability is important (Boom%), avoiding mistakes (Bust%) is just as critical.
Comparing the 2024 & 2025 NFL Draft Classes
The 2025 QB class enters this evaluation compared directly to the 2024 class, providing a clearer picture of how top prospects like J.J. McCarthy, Caleb Williams, and Jayden Daniels compare to their 2025 counterparts like Cam Ward, Shedeur Sanders, and Jaxson Dart.
This historical comparison is critical because it helps NFL Evaluators:
🔹 Contextualize positional value in a given draft year.
🔹 Understand how a new class stacks up against recently drafted players.
🔹 Identify strengths and weaknesses relative to past first-round picks.
What’s Next?
With this comprehensive evaluation system in place, we now reveal our final quarterback rankings, starting with the highest-graded prospects based on this methodology.
NFL Draft: Top Quarterback Rankings (Ranked by Total Score)
1. Jayden Daniels – LSU (Total Score: 95.87)
✅ Key Strength: Elite Dual-Threat Ability
Jayden Daniels is the most dynamic quarterback in this evaluation, blending elite athleticism with efficient passing production. His film grade ranks 97th percentile, emphasizing his polished mechanics and ability to command an offense. His 99th percentile rank in both 3rd Down Running EPA and All Downs Running EPA showcases his ability to extend plays and create offense both in structure and off-script.
Clutch Factor: While his 90th percentile 3rd Down 5+ Passing EPA suggests strong situational passing, he isn’t as dominant in must-pass downs as some of his peers.
Big-Play Potential: His explosive rushing ability makes him a dangerous weapon in any system, particularly an RPO-heavy or spread offense.
NFL Projection: Daniels projects as an instant-impact playmaker with dual-threat capabilities, making him an ideal fit for a creative offensive scheme that maximizes his mobility.
2. Cam Ward – Miami (Total Score: 91.19)
✅ Key Strength: Clutch Passing
Cam Ward thrives under pressure, boasting a 99th percentile rank in 3rd Down 5+ Passing EPA, meaning he excels in must-pass situations. His film grade (84th percentile) confirms his NFL-caliber arm talent and ability to deliver in high-pressure moments.
Clutch Factor: His elite 3rd Down 5+ Passing and top-tier Boom% show he can create explosive plays when it matters most.
Pocket Poise: Ward’s ability to make throws under duress gives him a significant edge over pure system-based passers.
NFL Projection: While he has playmaking ability, Ward will need continued development in decision-making to reach his full potential. His skill set aligns well with teams looking for a high-upside QB who can thrive in both structure and off-script.
3. J.J. McCarthy – Michigan (Total Score: 90.48)
✅ Key Strength: Clutch Passing Consistency
J.J. McCarthy ranks 98th percentile in 3rd Down 5+ Passing EPA, proving he is one of the most reliable quarterbacks in high-pressure situations. His film grade (93.75th percentile) highlights his polished mechanics, quick release, and ability to operate efficiently in a pro-style offense.
Clutch Factor: McCarthy’s high-pressure passing efficiency makes him one of the most NFL-ready quarterbacks in this class.
Pocket Control: He processes defenses quickly, excels in rhythm-based passing, and makes high-level reads within structure.
NFL Projection: McCarthy is a safe projection for teams prioritizing high-floor passers with clutch efficiency. He fits best in a West Coast or play-action-heavy offense that values accuracy and decision-making.
Shedeur Sanders – Colorado (Total Score: 89.85)
✅ Key Strength: Balanced Clutch Performance
Shedeur Sanders displays elite poise and decision-making, excelling in both high-leverage passing and running situations. His film grade ranks 88th percentile, highlighting his polished mechanics, pocket awareness, and quick processing ability. Sanders thrives in critical moments, ranking in the 96th percentile in 3rd Down 5+ Passing EPA and 94th percentile in 3rd Down Running EPA, making him one of the most well-rounded quarterbacks in this evaluation.
Clutch Factor: Sanders’ ability to operate in structure and create outside of it gives him one of the highest combined clutch passing and running scores in this study.
Big-Play Potential: While not the most explosive athlete, his elite ball placement, anticipation, and command of the offense allow him to consistently move the chains and sustain drives.
NFL Projection: Sanders profiles as a high-level pocket passer with enough mobility to evade pressure and extend plays, making him a strong fit in a West Coast or Spread offense that emphasizes quick reads and rhythm-based throws.
5. Drake Maye – North Carolina (Total Score: 89.28)
✅ Key Strength: Explosive Running in Clutch Moments
Drake Maye is a prototype modern NFL quarterback, blending elite arm talent with high-end mobility. His film grade ranks 91st percentile, showcasing his ability to make NFL throws from multiple platforms, operate under pressure, and push the ball downfield. Where he truly separates himself is as a clutch runner, ranking in the 98th percentile in both 3rd Down Running EPA and All Downs Running EPA, making him one of the most dangerous scrambling quarterbacks in the class.
Clutch Factor: His 83rd percentile 3rd Down 5+ Passing EPA is solid, but his 98th percentile rushing ability makes him lethal when plays break down.
Big-Play Potential: Maye’s blend of arm strength and athleticism allows him to create explosive plays in and out of structure, but his aggressive decision-making can lead to inconsistency at times.
NFL Projection: Maye projects as a high-upside franchise QB, best suited for a vertical passing offense that utilizes his ability to push the ball downfield while allowing him to create with his legs when needed.
6. Caleb Williams – USC (Total Score: 88.70)
✅ Key Strength: Elite Arm Talent
Caleb Williams is the most physically gifted quarterback in this study, boasting elite arm talent, improvisational ability, and off-platform throwing skills. His film grade ranks 99th percentile, reflecting his unique ability to extend plays and throw with velocity and accuracy from any angle. Williams is at his best creating outside of structure, using his mobility to escape pressure and deliver accurate throws downfield.
Clutch Factor: Williams’ playmaking ability allows him to generate big plays, but his 74th percentile 3rd Down 5+ Passing EPA suggests he’s not as dominant in structured clutch passing situations.
Big-Play Potential: Williams thrives when improvising, but his reliance on off-script playmaking can sometimes lead to unnecessary risk-taking and inconsistency.
NFL Projection: Williams projects as a high-upside franchise quarterback with elite tools, best suited for an offense that allows him to use his creativity while refining his decision-making in structured situations.
7. Jaxson Dart – Ole Miss (Total Score: 85.80)
✅ Key Strength: Dynamic Creator
Jaxson Dart is one of the most dangerous quarterbacks outside of structure, combining a live arm with elite mobility. His film grade ranks 75th percentile, showcasing his ability to extend plays and deliver accurate throws on the run. Dart thrives as a playmaker, ranking 99th percentile in both 3rd Down Running EPA and All Downs Running EPA, making him one of the most effective scrambling QBs in this class.
Clutch Factor: Dart’s 93rd percentile 3rd Down 5+ Passing EPA highlights his ability to make plays in must-pass situations.
Big-Play Potential: His athleticism and ability to create outside of structure allow him to generate explosive plays at a high rate.
NFL Projection: Dart projects as a high-upside dual-threat QB who fits best in an offense that incorporates RPOs and designed QB runs while refining his pocket presence.
8. Bo Nix – Oregon (Total Score: 71.03)
✅ Key Strength: Overall Passing Efficiency
Bo Nix stands out for his ability to efficiently distribute the football, excelling in quick-game concepts and structured offenses. His film grade ranks 56th percentile, indicating solid but unspectacular long-term potential. Nix's 99th percentile rank in All Passing Plays Total EPA reflects his ability to operate within structure and get the ball out quickly.
Clutch Factor: Despite his passing efficiency, his 62nd percentile 3rd Down 5+ Passing EPA suggests he isn’t elite in high-pressure situations.
Big-Play Potential: Nix’s ability to manage an offense and avoid costly mistakes makes him an ideal system quarterback.
NFL Projection: Nix projects as a high-floor, low-ceiling QB best suited for a timing-based system, such as a West Coast offense that values quick reads and accuracy.
9. Tyler Shough – Louisville (Total Score: 70.37)
✅ Key Strength: Clutch Passing Reliability
Tyler Shough is a battle-tested veteran with good size and a strong arm, allowing him to operate effectively in structured offenses. His film grade ranks 78th percentile, reflecting solid mechanics and experience in multiple offensive systems. Shough's 93rd percentile rank in 3rd Down 5+ Passing EPA indicates his ability to make critical throws in high-pressure situations.
Clutch Factor: His ability to consistently convert in must-pass downs is one of his biggest strengths.
Big-Play Potential: While not the most dynamic athlete, Shough's deep ball touch and command of the offense allow him to generate big plays when needed.
NFL Projection: Shough projects as a reliable developmental QB with the tools to be a quality backup or mid-level starter in a vertical passing offense.
10. Will Howard – Ohio State (Total Score: 69.55)
✅ Key Strength: Consistent Passing Efficiency
Will Howard is a well-rounded passer who operates efficiently within structure while displaying flashes of second-reaction playmaking. His film grade ranks 63rd percentile, reflecting his solid mechanics and ability to execute a pro-style offense. Howard's 99th percentile rank in All Passing Plays Total EPA highlights his ability to create positive plays consistently.
Clutch Factor: Despite his overall efficiency, his 97th percentile 3rd Down 5+ Passing EPA makes him one of the best situational passers in this evaluation.
Big-Play Potential: Howard thrives when given time to process, but his athletic limitations reduce his ability to create outside of structure.
NFL Projection: Howard projects as a high-floor quarterback with a chance to develop into a system-dependent starter in a spread or West Coast offense.
11. Michael Penix Jr. – Washington (Total Score: 65.83)
✅ Key Strength: Passing Efficiency
Michael Penix Jr. is one of the most polished passers in this class, with elite touch and ball placement on deep throws. His film grade ranks 81st percentile, indicating strong technical refinement and pocket awareness. His 94th percentile rank in All Passing Plays Total EPA reflects his ability to operate an explosive downfield passing attack.
Clutch Factor: While Penix is efficient overall, his 79th percentile 3rd Down 5+ Passing EPA suggests he isn’t elite in must-pass situations.
Big-Play Potential: His ability to push the ball downfield makes him one of the most dangerous vertical passers in this class.
NFL Projection: Penix projects as a high-upside pocket passer who can thrive in a pass-heavy offense built around vertical concepts.
12. Kyle McCord – Syracuse (Total Score: 64.99)
✅ Key Strength: Overall Passing Efficiency
Kyle McCord is a rhythm-based passer who operates well in structure, using timing and anticipation to deliver the football accurately. His film grade ranks 59th percentile, showing solid but unspectacular potential as a pocket passer. McCord's 97th percentile rank in All Passing Plays Total EPA highlights his ability to move the ball efficiently within a clean pocket.
Clutch Factor: His 90th percentile 3rd Down 5+ Passing EPA suggests he can perform well in key moments but lacks the ability to create outside of structure.
Big-Play Potential: McCord is a capable deep-ball thrower, but his lack of mobility limits his ability to generate off-script plays.
NFL Projection: McCord projects as a system-dependent quarterback best suited for a timing-based offense with strong protection.
13. Quinn Ewers – Texas (Total Score: 63.92)
✅ Key Strength: Film Potential
Quinn Ewers is a naturally talented passer with the arm strength to make any throw on the field, but inconsistencies in mechanics and decision-making have limited his production. His film grade ranks 66th percentile, reflecting his raw ability but uneven execution. While his 77th percentile 3rd Down 5+ Passing EPA suggests moderate success in clutch passing situations, his 47th percentile 3rd Down Running EPA limits his ability to extend plays when pressured.
Clutch Factor: Ewers has shown flashes in big moments, but his 5th percentile rank in Clutch EPA (3rd Down 5+ Passing) indicates major struggles in high-leverage downs.
Big-Play Potential: His ability to push the ball downfield is an asset, but inconsistent accuracy and footwork create volatility.
NFL Projection: Ewers projects as a high-upside developmental passer who needs mechanical refinement and a strong offensive structure to succeed.
14. Dillon Gabriel – Oregon (Total Score: 43.50)
✅ Key Strength: Clutch Passing
Dillon Gabriel is an experienced and efficient passer who excels in high-pressure situations. His film grade ranks 0th percentile in this study, reflecting concerns about his translatability to the NFL due to arm strength limitations and a system-dependent playstyle. However, his 99th percentile 3rd Down 5+ Passing EPA makes him one of the most effective clutch passers in this evaluation.
Clutch Factor: Gabriel thrives in must-pass situations, ranking at the top in 3rd Down 5+ Passing EPA, showing a strong command of situational football.
Big-Play Potential: While he has been productive, Gabriel's lack of elite arm talent and mobility limits his ability to create explosive plays off-script.
NFL Projection: Gabriel projects as a high-floor backup quarterback with potential to be a bridge starter in a quick-game-oriented offense.
15. Jalen Milroe – Alabama (Total Score: 33.63)
✅ Key Strength: Clutch Running Ability
Jalen Milroe is the most physically gifted athlete among the quarterbacks in this evaluation, boasting elite speed and rushing ability. His film grade ranks 6th percentile, reflecting significant concerns about his consistency as a passer. His 73rd percentile 3rd Down Running EPA highlights his ability to create with his legs, but his 54th percentile 3rd Down 5+ Passing EPA raises concerns about his ability to win as a passer in high-leverage downs.
Clutch Factor: While his running ability adds a dynamic element, his inconsistent passing production on 3rd and long remains a major red flag.
Big-Play Potential: Milroe is a true dual-threat who can turn broken plays into explosive gains, but his passing limitations create boom-or-bust results.
NFL Projection: Milroe projects as a long-term developmental quarterback who may transition into a gadget role or need multiple years to refine his passing mechanics.