.png){kind=small}
About Mock Draft 4.0 And My Draft Strategy
This will be a one-round mock draft that will include trade scenarios. Per usual, this season, I am using the PFF Mock Draft Simulator and our own Football Scout 365 NFL Draft Big Board rankings to make my draft decisions.
We have trades
The Vikings trade up to number 5 overall with the LA Chargers to get their QB of the Future; the Cincinnati Bengals trade up from pick 18 to pick 10, to grab a generational TE.
Why The Vikings Might Trade-Up
The mindset centers around Kirk Cousins seeking an extension in the reported 2-year, $90M range. There has been speculation that the Vikings might consider paying up big time to move up in the draft for a QB, but they may not need to pay as big of a cost as once believed. By going after a rookie QB, you can better align the current youth on the roster with a rookie QB contract that you can build around. In this scenario, you can save a lot of money by not retaining Kirk Cousins. Even if you do retain him and he becomes the mentor to the rookie QB, you can use him as the bridge to the future. In my proposed scenario, using the Classic Jimmy Johnson Valuation Model, the Vikings swap 2024 firsts with the LA Chargers to move ahead of the Giants and send their 2024 2nd-round pick (42 overall) and a 2025 5th-rounder.
The Bengals Trading Up to Grab A Generational Tight End
There is only one TE in the draft class worth a top-ten pick, and if Brock Bowers falls, as some believe he could due to the positional value of a TE, why not make a move to get him and pair him with Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase? The price is not that hefty. Using the Classic Jimmy Johnson Valuation Model, I have the Bengals swapping firsts with the Jets and sending the Jets their 2nd round pick, pick number 49.
The Positional Breakdown In The Mock Draft
As I mentioned in prior mock drafts, I expect at least 4 QBs to go in the first round, 5-7 WRs, but we could see more. The WR class is 20 deep in my top 100 rankings. The cornerback class is very talented and deep; I expect 5-7 in round one. Edge rushers are the big question mark. I believe we will see at least 4, but the talent is there for us to get 6. For the interior defensive line, it looks like we will get at least one, maybe two. There are no RB's expected to be drafted in the first round; Brock Bowers is the only TE expected to go in round one.
Quarterbacks (QB): 5
Wide Receivers (WR): 6
Offensive Tackles (OT): 7
Cornerbacks (CB): 6
Tight Ends (TE): 1
Edge Rushers (Edge): 5
Centers (C): 1
Interior Defensive Linemen (IDL): 1
Mock Draft 4.0
(1). Chicago Bears
Pick: USC QB Caleb Williams
Draft Picks: 1, 9, 75, 111, 123, 143
Team Needs: IOL, WR, TE, Edge, CB
Pick Analysis: Caleb Williams is not necessarily the top pick for the Chicago Bears if they indeed move on from Justin Fields. They could overlook Caleb Williams and instead draft Drake Maye or potentially trade back a few spots to select Jayden Daniels or J.J. McCarthy. The Bears possess significant leverage in this situation. In our mock draft, we assume the Bears have opted to trade away Justin Fields. The team they trade him to remains subject to speculation: the Atlanta Falcons are reportedly very interested, while other sources suggest the Raiders and Steelers are also potential destinations.
(2). Washington Commanders
Pick: UNC QB Drake Maye
Draft Picks: 2, 36, 40, 67, 101, 103, 138, 181, 220
Team Needs: QB, Edge, WR, IOL, LB
Pick Analysis: The Commanders, like the Chicago Bears, possess considerable leverage with their draft pick. They could trade back a few spots if they prefer Jayden Daniels over Drake Maye or J.J. McCarthy. Given Kliff Kingsbury's role as the offensive coordinator, Caleb Williams would be the ideal fit. However, if the Bears select Williams as the number one overall pick, the Commanders will face a significant decision in addressing the most important position in football.
(3). New England Patriots
Pick: LSU QB Jayden Daniels
Draft Picks: 3, 34, 68, 104, 136, 182, 229
Team Needs: QB, TE, OT, WR, RB
Pick Analysis: Similar to the two teams ahead of them in the draft order, the New England Patriots are in need of a quarterback. They are in an excellent position to select one of the top four presumed quarterbacks, although which two will be available at their pick remains uncertain. While I have previously mocked J.J. McCarthy to the Patriots, they could also acquire significant additional draft capital if they choose to pursue a free-agent quarterback or give Mac Jones another opportunity.
(4). Arizona Cardinals
Pick: Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
Draft Picks: 4, 27, 35, 66, 71, 90, 105, 137, 161, 188, 222, 224, 241
Team Needs: WR, DT, IOL, Edge, CB
Pick Analysis: The 4th overall pick in the draft has consistently been associated with Marvin Harrison Jr. going to the Arizona Cardinals. While this seems to be the most likely scenario, Malik Nabers should not be dismissed as a potential choice for this spot. Moreover, the Cardinals are in an advantageous position to trade back and acquire more draft capital. Nevertheless, they already possess a significant amount of draft capital for 2024, including two first-round picks and an early-round two-pick, which holds nearly as much value as a late first-round pick, especially in this year's deep, wide receiver class.
(5). Minnesota Vikings (via LAC)
Pick: Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy
Trade Scenario: Vikings send the Chargers pick 11 overall, 42 overall, and a 2025 5th.
Draft Picks: 11, 42, 109, 130, 156, 166, 179, 190
Team Needs: QB, Edge, OG, LB, DT
Pick Analysis: The Vikings are a potential trade-up candidate looking for a QB, even if they do retain Kirk Cousins. J.J. McCarthy mentioned he had a great interview with the Vikings, and he could be available, I wouldn't bank on this, so if they really want to draft a rookie QB, they will need to move up. The other key need is an edge rusher, and this is the prime territory where you could get a Dallas Turner, Jared Verse, or Laiatu Latu.
(6). New York Giants (Via CIN)
Pick: Washington WR Rome Odunze
Draft Picks: 6, 39, 47, 70, 108, 140, 185
Team Needs: DT, RB, IOL, Edge, CB, WR
Pick Analysis: The Giants are a credible candidate for trading up in the draft, potentially targeting a quarterback from this year's class. They might have one of the top four quarterbacks fall to them unless another QB-needy team decides to trade up ahead of them. If a preferred quarterback is available at their pick, I believe they should select him. If not, the clear choices would be Malik Nabers, Marvin Harrison Jr., or one of the two top offensive tackles in the 2024 NFL Draft.
(7). Tennessee Titans
Pick: Notre Dame OT Joe Alt
Draft Picks: 7, 38, 107, 145, 184, 219, 240
Team Needs: OT, CB, WR, Edge, RB
Pick Analysis: The consensus in this spot for the Tennessee Titans is that they will draft an Offensive Tackle, but they could also use an elite WR. Regardless, the plan should center around supporting Will Levis. The draft capital is not great, so seeing how the Titans address free agency will be interesting.
(8). Atlanta Falcons
Pick: LSU WR Malik Nabers
Draft Picks: 8, 43, 74, 79, 110, 142, 199
Team Needs: QB, WR, Edge, CB, DT
Pick Analysis: The Falcons' strategy largely depends on whether they decide to trade for a quarterback, compete with other QB-needy teams for a free-agent quarterback, or trade up to secure one of the presumptive top-four QBs in the draft. The latest consensus suggests the Falcons could trade for Justin Fields. However, in a previous mock draft, I had the Falcons trading up to the top pick in the 2024 NFL Draft with the Chicago Bears to select Caleb Williams. Although moving back might seem excessive for the Bears, there remains a possibility.
(9). Chicago Bears
Pick: Toledo CB Quinyon Mitchell
Draft Picks: 1, 9, 75, 111, 123, 143
Team Needs: IOL, WR, TE, Edge, CB
Pick Analysis: With two top-ten picks, the Chicago Bears are in a highly favorable position in the draft. They have the luxury to consider acquiring a new quarterback, keeping Justin Fields, or trading back while retaining Justin Fields. They could also opt to select Marvin Harrison Jr., and then choose between an elite offensive tackle or pairing D.J. Moore and Marvin Harrison Jr. with Rome Odunze. Ryan Poles, indeed, possesses significant leverage, affording the team a multitude of strategic options that are notably beneficial.
(10). Cincinnati Bengals (via NYJ)
Pick: Georgia TE Brock Bowers
Trade Scenario: Bengals trade Pick 18 overall and pick 80 overall
Draft Picks: 18, 49, 80, 116, 148, 175, 196, 235, 252
Team Needs: WR, OT, DT, TE, CB
Pick Analysis: The Bengals look like a team in the market for an OT or a cornerback. They could take a WR, but they did retain Tee Higgins. They are also a rumored candidate to trade up for, or stay in position to snag, Brock Bowers, assuming Bowers falls.
(11). Los Angeles Chargers (via MIN)
Pick: Iowa CB Cooper DeJean
Trade Scenario: Vikings send the Chargers pick 11 overall, 42 overall, and a 2025 5th.
Draft Picks: 5, 37, 69, 106, 139, 183, 223, 256
Team Needs: CB, RB, DT, TE, C
Pick Analysis: Jim Harbaugh's first draft with the Chargers could see them selecting Brock Bowers, one of the most highly anticipated tight end talents from Georgia in recent memory. However, there are concerns regarding the potential value of drafting a tight end this high. Given that the Chargers already have their franchise quarterback, they could realistically consider trading out of this spot. Alternatively, they have the option to secure one of the top two offensive tackle prospects in this draft class.
(12). Denver Broncos
Pick: Washington QB Michael Penix Jr.
Draft Picks: 12, 76, 122, 144, 146, 237
Team Needs: QB, DT, TE, CB, Edge
Pick Analysis: Sean Payton needs a QB. IDK who is will be. The speculation is that they would like to draft one, and I even mocked J.J. McCarthy to the Broncos in a prior mock, that is less likely unless they trade up.
(13). Las Vegas Raiders
Pick: Clemson CB Nate Wiggins
Draft Picks: 13, 44, 77, 113, 147, 210, 221, 225, 227
Team Needs: QB, IOL, OT, CB, RB
Pick Analysis: Another team with a QB need and maybe one of the more desperate in this draft. Antonio Pierce can front all he wants; the reality is, he is going to need a legit franchise QB in the AFC West if he is going to survive as the Raiders' Head Coach. The Raiders are a team high on the Justin FIelds potential trade list. They can trade themselves into the top 5 and go after a rookie like Jayden Daniels, J.J. McCarthy, or Drake Maye. If they do not get a QB via the draft in round one, they can target offensive tackle, defensive back, or the interior of the offensive line.
(14). New Orleans Saints
Pick: Oregon State OT Taliese Fuaga
Draft Picks: 14, 45, 149, 167, 169, 174, 192, 201, 230
Team Needs: Edge, WR, OT, CB, DT
Pick Analysis: The Saints were once in the discussion of having an interest in drafting a QB, but they have a lot of other needs, including edge rusher, Wide receiver, cornerback, and offensive tackle, all of which they are in prime position to draft one of the top non-QB's in the 2024 NFL Draft.
(15). Indianapolis Colts
Pick: Alabama Edge Dallas Turner
Draft Picks: 15, 46, 82, 118, 150, 193, 232
Team Needs: DT, WR, CB, Edge, S
Pick Analysis: The Colts have a lot of projected salary cap, so they can go many different ways with this particular pick. The consensus appears to be that they will target a defensive back, they can also continue to build depth on the defensive line as well.
(16). Seattle Seahawks
Pick: Penn State Edge Chop Robinson
Draft Picks: 16, 78, 81, 119, 151, 194, 233
Team Needs: QB, LB, IOL, DT, Edge
Pick Analysis: With a new head coach in place, the franchise's direction at QB is in question. They could trade Geno Smith, but I do not see a top-ten trade partner unless one of the presumptive top-four QB's fall out of the top ten, that could be the ticket for the Seahawks to make a move. They will likely go edge rusher or a versatile offensive lineman if they remain in this spot.
(17). Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: FSU Edge Jared Verse
Draft Picks: 17, 48, 96, 115, 117, 152, 195, 211, 234
Team Needs: Edge, OG, WR, CB, OT
Pick Analysis: Edge rusher Josh Allen could be on the way out, and the Jaguars do not possess a lot of salary cap space as it currently stands. They can go get an edge rusher in what feels like a prime spot to draft one of the best available, or they go get another wide receiver to support Trevor Lawrence. They have a need at LG with Ezra Cleveland potentially on his way out, but they might be better off addressing this need in the 2nd round.
(18). New York Jets (via CIN)
Penn State OT Olu Fashanu
Trade Scenario: Bengals trade Pick 18 overall and pick 80 overall
Draft Picks: 10, 72, 112, 114, 187, 253, 254, 257
Team Needs: OT, WR, S, DT, QB
Pick Analysis: The easiest evaluation for me yet, the Jets need an offensive tackle or a wide receiver. Nothing more, nothing less with this pick. The other option is to trade back and get some extra draft capital.
(19). Los Angeles Rams
Pick: Alabama CB Terrion Arnold
Draft Picks: 19, 52, 83, 100, 153, 154, 177, 191, 212, 217, 218
Team Needs: CB, Edge, S, K, QB
Pick Analysis: The Rams have needs at cornerback and could add depth to their defensive line. If a QB falls in the draft they could grab a QB.
(20). Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick: Georgia OT Amarius Mims
Draft Picks: 20, 51, 84, 120, 121, 197, 238
Team Needs: CB, OT, IOL, LB, DT
Pick Analysis: The Steelers have needs on the offensive line. They could target the QB position if one is available. They may be a candidate to trade up for a QB. Other needs include cornerback, IDL, and LB.
(21). Miami Dolphins
Pick: LSU WR Brian Thomas Jr.
Draft Picks: 21, 55, 157, 186, 200, 239
Team Needs: IOL, S, WR, DT, TE
Pick Analysis: The Dolphins are consistently mock drafting a WR, they have needs on theor defensive line and in the secondary.
(22). Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Oregon C Jackson Powers-Johnson
Draft Picks: 22, 50, 53, 97, 160, 170, 171, 178, 189
Team Needs: RB, WR, CB, LB, Edge
Pick Analysis: The Eagles have good draft capital and can go best available, they can target the Jason Kelce replacement, they could use another cornerback, and wide receiver could be a need.
(23). Houston Texans
Pick: Alabama OT J.C. Latham
Draft Picks: 23, 59, 86, 124, 128, 236, 245, 250
Team Needs: OT, DT, CB, Edge, WR
Pick Analysis: I believe they go with defensive line depth, maybe they go after another offensive tackle or someone with positional versatility that can flip to guard early on.
(24). Dallas Cowboys
Pick: Washington OT Troy Fautanu
Draft Picks: 24, 56, 87, 173, 213, 231, 242
Team Needs: OT, RB, IOL, CB, WR
Pick Analysis: The Cowboys will likely go after an offensive tackle. They can also target cornerback.
(25). Green Bay Packers
Pick: Alabama CB Kool-Aid McKinstry
Draft Picks: 25, 41, 58, 88, 91, 127, 168, 204, 216, 243, 251
Team Needs: S, OT, CB, IOL, Edge
Pick Analysis: In round one, I can see the Packers looking at the best available cornerback or offensive line, they can target IOL or OT.
(26). Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: EDGE Laiatu Latu
Draft Picks: 26, 57, 89, 126, 203, 244, 255
Team Needs: QB, WR, IOL, S, Edge
Pick Analysis: Tampa Bay might need to grab a WR, but they also have a need an edge rusher on the interior of the defensive line. They might target safety at some point.
(27). Arizona Cardinals
Pick: Texas IDL Byron Murphy
Draft Picks: 4, 27, 35, 66, 71, 90, 105, 137, 161, 188, 222, 224, 241
Team Needs: WR, DT, IOL, Edge, CB
Pick Analysis: The best available IDL, Edge, or cornerback makes the most sense.
(28). Buffalo Bills
Pick: Texas WR Adonai Mitchell
Draft Picks: 28, 60, 99, 129, 159, 162, 198, 202, 206, 246
Team Needs: S, DT, Edge, WR, CB
Pick Analysis: With many pending free agents, they can go best available at any position of need.
(29). Detroit Lions
Pick: Oregon CB Khyree Jackson
Draft Picks: 29, 61, 73, 92, 163, 207, 247
Team Needs: CB, OG, Edge, WR, DT
Pick Analysis: They need to upgrade the secondary.
(30). Baltimore Ravens
Pick: Alabama EDGE Chris Braswell
Draft Picks: 30, 62, 93, 131, 134, 164, 226, 248
Team Needs: DT, OG, WR, CB, RB
Pick Analysis: Ravens have many pending free agents, the best available option at a position of need will make the most sense.
(31). San Francisco 49ers
Pick: Oklahoma OT Tyler Guyton
Draft Picks: 31, 63, 94, 98, 125, 132, 176, 209, 214, 215, 249
Team Needs: CB, Edge, OT, IOL, DT
Pick Analysis: The 49ers can go best available with many pending free agents.
(32). Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: Georgia WR Ladd McConkey
Draft Picks: 32, 64, 95, 133, 158, 172
Team Needs: DT, WR, OT, CB, RB
Pick Analysis: They must add an elite WR to help Patrick Mahomes.
Teams Without a 1st Round Pick
(33). Carolina Panthers
Pick: Texas WR Xavier Worthy
Draft Picks: 33, 65, 102, 141, 165, 180
Team Needs: Edge, WR, LB, IOL, CB
Pick Analysis: They need WR's
(54). Cleveland Browns
Pick: Florida IDL Braden Fiske
Draft Picks: 54, 85, 135, 155, 205, 208, 228
Team Needs: DT, LB, Edge, RB, OT
Pick Analysis: Adding defensive line depth will be a priority, they might try to grab an OT in this spot.