.png){kind=small}
DeAndre Hopkins' contested-catch ability can boost Mahomes' red zone efficiency in 2024, turning more of his 92.3% on-target throws into TDs.
While DeAndre Hopkins is expected to improve the Kansas City Chiefs' offense overall, one key area that deserves a closer look is red zone passing in 2024. Given the Chiefs’ struggles in converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns, Hopkins could be a reason for optimism, particularly when it comes to improving Patrick Mahomes' efficiency when targeting outside wide receivers.
Evaluating Deandre Hopkins' Endzone Target Efficiency in the Redzone (2021-23)
From 2021-2023, in the red zone, Hopkins was targeted 22 times on throws to the endzone, catching 8 TDs with an 88% catchable throw rate. These numbers aren’t necessarily elite—players like Mike Evans had 34 end zone targets, 17 TDs, and a 49% catch rate during the same period. Similarly, Davante Adams had 31 end zone targets, 16 TDs, and a 53% catch rate. While Hopkins’ end zone catch rate (39%) might not stand out, his contested-catch ability in tight spaces makes him an invaluable asset in the red zone.
DeAndre Hopkins: 39% catch rate, 8 TDs
Mike Evans: 49% catch rate, 17 TDs
Davante Adams: 53% catch rate, 16 TDs
Patrick Mahomes' performance in the red zone passing game in 2024 has been subpar, but the blame cannot solely be placed on him.
Looking at Patrick Mahomes' 2024 red zone passing numbers, there’s a clear gap between his accuracy and his scoring output. Mahomes has an elite 92.3% on-target throw rate in the red zone, but his completion rate is at 69.2%, and his TD rate sits at just 15.4%. Compare that to other quarterbacks in 2024:
Josh Allen: 15 attempts, 26.7% TD rate, 53.3% completion rate, 80% on-target throw rate
Joe Burrow: 22 attempts, 27.3% TD rate, 50% completion rate, 85% on-target throw rate
Justin Herbert: 12 attempts, 25% TD rate, 66.7% completion rate, 75% on-target throw rate
Despite Mahomes' accuracy, his red zone efficiency when it comes to touchdowns is notably lower than other top QBs. This is where Hopkins can make a huge difference.
Hopkins' contested-catch ability and success in tight spaces, especially in the end zone, can help Mahomes convert more of those on-target throws into touchdowns. Not only will Hopkins likely become the primary target, but his presence will demand additional defensive attention, freeing up more opportunities for Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, and even the run game in critical red zone situations.