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Our "Elite QB Blueprint Model" evaluates top quarterback prospects against the core attributes of today’s NFL stars, like Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow, using data-driven benchmarks to project who has the talent, adaptability, and skill to thrive at the highest level.
What is The Elite QB Blueprint Model?
In the ever-evolving landscape of the NFL, finding a franchise quarterback has become both a high-stakes art and a science. Our Elite QB Blueprint Model serves as a roadmap for identifying top quarterback prospects by evaluating them against the attributes of today’s elite quarterbacks, like Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Josh Allen. Using six core attributes—arm talent, accuracy, mobility, improvisational skills, football IQ, and experience—each weighted by its importance to NFL success, this model provides a comprehensive benchmark for what it takes to thrive at the highest level.
Building the Perfect Quarterback Profile: Core Attributes and Weights
The Elite QB Blueprint Model evaluates prospects against six key attributes, each carefully weighted based on its importance to NFL success. The model uses data-driven benchmarks, elite quarterback comparisons, and scouting insights to gauge how closely new prospects match up to NFL stars like Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Josh Allen. Below, each core trait is defined along with benchmarks and notable NFL comparisons, creating a profile to evaluate new quarterbacks.
Arm Talent and Arm Strength (20%)
Definition: This measures a quarterback's ability to throw with both power and control, crucial for deep throws and tight-window passes.
Benchmark: Consistent, high-velocity throws across field levels, with quarterbacks averaging 250–300 passing yards per game.
Elite Comparisons: Patrick Mahomes (diverse arm angles), Josh Allen (deep-throw power), Justin Herbert (blend of accuracy with power).
Why it Matters: A quarterback’s arm strength opens up the playbook by challenging defenses at all depths, keeping them honest on every down.
Accuracy (20%)
Definition: Precision across short, intermediate, and deep routes, especially in pressured scenarios, is essential for sustaining offensive drives.
Benchmark: Completion rates above 65%, consistent across game situations and under defensive pressure.
Elite Comparisons: Joe Burrow (touch and timing at all levels), Russell Wilson (deep-ball accuracy).
Why it Matters: A high completion rate under pressure demonstrates reliability in passing and is critical for maintaining possession in high-stakes moments.
Mobility and Athleticism (15%)
Definition: The ability to extend plays, maneuver in the pocket, and evade pressure is crucial for versatility in high-stakes situations.
Benchmark: 500+ rushing yards per season, or evident escapability and maneuverability within the pocket.
Elite Comparisons: Lamar Jackson (top-end speed), Kyler Murray (quickness and agility), Russell Wilson (stability and balance in the pocket).
Why it Matters: Mobility gives quarterbacks the ability to adapt when protection breaks down, allowing them to create plays on the ground or buy time for downfield options.
Improvisational Skills (15%)
Definition: The ability to adapt outside of the offensive structure, managing pressure with composure and creativity, is critical when plays break down.
Benchmark: High completion rates on broken plays and effective yardage generation under pressure.
Elite Comparisons: Patrick Mahomes (creative, off-script playmaking), Russell Wilson (effectiveness outside of designed plays).
Why it Matters: This skill allows quarterbacks to create positive yardage in chaotic situations, ensuring offensive flexibility when defenses disrupt the initial play structure.
Mental Processing and Football IQ (20%)
Definition: The ability to quickly read defenses, make adaptive decisions, and efficiently process post-snap information is essential for high-level quarterbacking.
Benchmark: High-efficiency rating (160+) and low turnover rates; quick, adaptive reads under pressure.
Elite Comparisons: Joe Burrow (defensive reads and adaptability), Justin Herbert (rapid decision-making).
Why it Matters: A quarterback’s Football IQ enables quick adaptation to complex defenses, making them less predictable and more effective across different play types.
Experience and Production (10%)
Definition: A quarterback’s collegiate experience, combined with consistent production, indicates their readiness for NFL complexities and adaptability to various scenarios.
Benchmark: 30+ games played, a passer rating above 160, and multi-season high production.
Elite Comparisons: Joe Burrow (extensive college production), Patrick Mahomes (high-volume passing).
Why it Matters: Experience provides quarterbacks with the ability to read defenses effectively and handle varied situations, laying a strong foundation for NFL adaptability.
Common Development Areas Analyzed
Evaluating potential weaknesses provides an even clearer view of each quarterback’s readiness. Here are common developmental areas, each benchmarked for improvement:
Mechanics and Footwork (20%)
Definition: This evaluates a quarterback's consistency in footwork and throwing mechanics, which are vital for precise and powerful throws under pressure.
Benchmark: Stability in throwing mechanics and footwork under duress, contributing to sustained accuracy and power across different situations.
Elite Comparisons: Josh Allen (improved mechanics post-draft), Lamar Jackson (refined release and precision).
Why it Matters: Consistent mechanics help quarterbacks maintain accuracy and minimize unnecessary turnovers. Poor mechanics can lead to erratic throws and misreads, particularly under defensive pressure.
Pocket Presence and Navigation (20%)
Definition: This assesses a quarterback’s ability to sense pressure, evade rushers, and keep the field in view to make quick decisions under stress.
Benchmark: Minimal sack rates and effective evasion in high-pressure situations, with quarterbacks showing composure and adaptability.
Elite Comparisons: Justin Herbert (calm pocket presence), Kyler Murray (effective pressure navigation while keeping eyes downfield).
Why it Matters: Pocket presence separates the great quarterbacks from the good, as it determines how well a QB can avoid negative plays and stay poised to make accurate throws under pressure.
Consistency in Accuracy (15%)
Definition: This focuses on a quarterback’s ability to maintain precision on throws, especially under pressure or during crucial downs.
Benchmark: High completion percentage under pressure, including short and intermediate throws, and minimal drop-off in accuracy when pressured.
Elite Comparisons: Joe Burrow (consistently accurate despite defensive pressure), Russell Wilson (reliable accuracy across levels, including deep throws).
Why it Matters: Accurate quarterbacks sustain offensive drives, converting on key downs and keeping their teams in scoring positions. Inconsistent accuracy, particularly under duress, can lead to missed opportunities and stalled drives.
Decision-Making Under Pressure (25%)
Definition: This measures a quarterback’s ability to make sound, efficient decisions when facing defensive pressure, avoiding forced throws and turnovers.
Benchmark: Low turnover rates, high adjusted completion rates when pressured, and success on critical downs.
Elite Comparisons: Russell Wilson (calm, efficient decisions in high-pressure scenarios), Lamar Jackson (avoids forced plays, keeps drives alive).
Why it Matters: Decision-making under pressure is crucial for maintaining drive efficiency and avoiding costly mistakes. A QB who can make safe, productive decisions under duress will limit turnovers and maximize scoring opportunities.
Trusting Offensive Structure (20%)
Definition: This assesses a quarterback’s balance between improvisation and reliance on the designed play structure. Over-reliance on broken plays can disrupt offensive rhythm.
Benchmark: High efficiency within structured offensive plays and low reliance on improvisation as the primary source of production.
Elite Comparisons: Patrick Mahomes (developed trust in structured plays, enhancing overall efficiency).
Why it Matters: While improvisation is essential, a quarterback who can trust and execute within an offense’s structure can elevate the entire team’s performance, staying efficient while minimizing chaos.
Ranking Quarterbacks from 2021-2024 Based on Elite QB Profile Matches
The following rankings reveal how recent first-round quarterback prospects align with the elite quarterback model:
1). Caleb Williams (2024) – 85% Match
Strengths: Elite arm talent, creativity, high football IQ; excels with multi-angle throws and power in off-schedule plays.
Weaknesses: Footwork inconsistencies; reliance on improvisation sometimes affects rhythm.
Comparison: Patrick Mahomes
Key Match Drivers: Arm talent (20%), improvisational skills (15%).
Lowering Factor: Footwork inconsistencies impacting accuracy (20% weight).
2). Trevor Lawrence (2021) – 84% Match
Strengths: Arm strength, composure under pressure, field vision.
Weaknesses: Occasional accuracy drops under heavy pressure.
Comparison: Justin Herbert
Key Match Drivers: Arm strength (20%), mental processing (20%).
Lowering Factor: Accuracy under pressure (20% weight).
3). Drake Maye (2024) – 82% Match
Strengths: Accurate, quick decision-making, pocket awareness.
Weaknesses: Inconsistent deep-ball accuracy.
Comparison: Josh Allen
Key Match Drivers: Accuracy (20%), mental processing (20%).
Lowering Factor: Deep-ball accuracy (20% weight).
4). C.J. Stroud (2023) – 81% Match
Strengths: Accuracy, pocket stability, intermediate route precision.
Weaknesses: Limited off-script playmaking.
Comparison: Joe Burrow
Key Match Drivers: Pocket presence (20%), accuracy (20%).
Lowering Factor: Off-script limitations (15% weight).
5). Jayden Daniels (2024) – 79% Match
Strengths: Dual-threat, athletic, creative out of structure.
Weaknesses: Needs improvement in pocket mechanics.
Comparison: Lamar Jackson
Key Match Drivers: Mobility (15%), improvisational skills (15%).
Lowering Factor: Pocket mechanics inconsistency (15% weight).
6). Justin Fields (2021) – 78% Match
Strengths: Athleticism, deep ball power, playmaking out of structure.
Weaknesses: Intermediate accuracy, pressure navigation.
Comparison: Lamar Jackson
Key Match Drivers: Arm strength (20%), improvisational skills (15%).
Lowering Factor: Intermediate accuracy (20% weight).
7). Bryce Young (2023) – 78% Match
Strengths: Decision-making, accuracy under pressure, field awareness.
Weaknesses: Durability concerns due to smaller stature.
Comparison: Russell Wilson
Key Match Drivers: Mental processing (20%), accuracy (20%).
Lowering Factor: Durability (10% weight).
8). Michael Penix Jr. (2024) – 77% Match
Strengths: Deep-ball accuracy, poised pocket presence.
Weaknesses: Durability issues, footwork inconsistencies.
Comparison: Justin Herbert
Key Match Drivers: Deep-ball accuracy (20%), pocket management (20%).
Lowering Factor: Durability (10% weight).
9). J.J. McCarthy (2024) – 76% Match
Strengths: Play extension, accuracy in short-to-intermediate range, mobility.
Weaknesses: Needs rhythm development in timing routes.
Comparison: Joe Burrow
Key Match Drivers: Play extension (15%), short-range accuracy (20%).
Lowering Factor: Timing consistency (20% weight).
10). Bo Nix (2024) – 74% Match
Strengths: Efficient decision-making, experience, and pocket awareness.
Weaknesses: Limited deep-ball consistency and arm strength for high-velocity throws
Comparison: Joe Burrow
Key Match Drivers: Mental processing (20%), accuracy (20%).
Lowering Factor: Arm strength limitations impacting deep-ball consistency (15% weight).
11). Kenny Pickett (2022) – 74% Match
Strengths: Leadership, intermediate accuracy, sound processing.
Weaknesses: Limited arm strength for deep throws.
Comparison: Joe Burrow
Key Match Drivers: Leadership (10%), intermediate accuracy (20%).
Lowering Factor: Arm strength (20% weight).
12). Trey Lance (2021) – 73% Match
Strengths: Raw arm talent, physicality, and dual-threat potential.
Weaknesses: Limited experience, needs development in decision-making.
Comparison: Josh Allen
Key Match Drivers: Arm strength (20%), mobility (15%).
Lowering Factor: Experience and decision-making (10% weight).
13.) Anthony Richardson (2023) – 72% Match
Strengths: Explosive arm, elite athleticism.
Weaknesses: Inconsistent footwork and structured decision-making.
Comparison: Josh Allen
Key Match Drivers: Arm strength (20%), athleticism (15%).
Lowering Factor: Footwork and decision-making (20% weight).
14). Zach Wilson (2021) – 70% Match
Strengths: Dynamic arm, short-area accuracy, off-platform versatility.
Weaknesses: Decision-making under pressure, reading defenses.
Comparison: Patrick Mahomes
Key Match Drivers: Improvisational skills (15%), arm versatility (20%).
Lowering Factor: Decision-making under pressure (20% weight).
15). Mac Jones (2021) – 69% Match
Strengths: Processing speed, accuracy in short-to-intermediate range.
Weaknesses: Limited arm strength and mobility.
Comparison: Joe Burrow
Key Match Drivers: Processing speed (20%), accuracy (20%).
Lowering Factor: Arm strength (20% weight).
These comparisons use the benchmark traits and weightings to quantify each quarterback's match to an elite profile, focusing on how their skills align with NFL-level success factors. This systematic analysis provides insights into each player’s strengths, developmental needs, and overall fit in comparison to top-tier quarterbacks in the league.