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Drake Maye’s rise to the NFL began with a breakout season at the University of North Carolina (UNC) in 2022, where he established himself as one of the top quarterback prospects for the 2024 NFL Draft.
Drake Maye's Transition to the NFL
Standing at 6-foot-4 and weighing 230 pounds, Maye’s physical attributes were only part of what made him an intriguing NFL prospect. His stellar 2022 campaign saw him throw for 4,321 yards, 38 touchdowns, and just seven interceptions, completing 66.2% of his passes. In addition to his passing stats, Maye contributed 698 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns, adding a dual-threat element to his game that made him a true playmaker. His ability to thrive in off-script situations, combined with his arm strength, made him a dynamic quarterback prospect with significant NFL upside.
Maye’s performance earned him numerous accolades, including sweeping all four major ACC awards (Player of the Year, Offensive Player of the Year, Rookie of the Year, and Offensive Rookie of the Year), joining elite company with Jameis Winston as the only other player to achieve that feat. His combination of size, mobility, and arm strength drew comparisons to top NFL quarterbacks like Justin Herbert and Josh Allen. However, Maye was not without his critics, as concerns about his mechanics and decision-making under pressure would later resurface in his junior season.
Drake Maye Took A Step Back In 2023 At UNC
Maye’s 2023 season saw a decline in both his numbers and his overall performance. Statistically, he threw for 3,812 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions—still impressive but a notable dip from his breakout sophomore year. His completion percentage dropped to 63%, and his decision-making came into question, particularly when facing more complex defensive schemes. His turnover rate increased, and while his arm strength and playmaking ability were still evident, Maye’s accuracy, especially in the intermediate range, became an issue.
One of the primary areas of concern was Maye’s mechanics and footwork. While his arm strength was never in doubt, he often relied too heavily on it, leading to inconsistent accuracy, particularly when he was under pressure. His footwork showed little improvement between his sophomore and junior seasons, as he frequently failed to set his feet properly before making throws. This often resulted in balls being left behind receivers or off-target, leading to stalled drives and missed opportunities.
These concerns were compounded by a less-than-ideal supporting cast, with Maye losing his top receiver, Josh Downs, to the NFL. Without Downs and facing tougher defenses, Maye struggled to carry the Tar Heels in the same way he had in 2022. UNC finished the 2023 season 8-5, with Maye still showing flashes of brilliance but unable to fully elevate his team.
Despite this regression, Maye’s physical tools and prior performance in 2022 kept him firmly in the conversation as one of the top quarterbacks available in the 2024 NFL Draft.
NFL Combine Performance and Draft Position
Heading into the 2024 NFL Draft, Drake Maye was still considered one of the premier quarterback prospects, though his stock had fluctuated somewhat due to his 2023 performance. He entered the draft process with the reputation of a player with immense upside but one who also needed refinement, particularly in his mechanics and decision-making.
At the NFL Combine, Maye’s measurable traits reinforced what scouts already knew about him. His size—6’4” and 230 pounds—made him one of the more physically imposing quarterbacks in the class. His arms measured 32.25 inches, and his wingspan exceeded 6’4”, all while showing strong agility in positional drills. While Maye chose not to run the 40-yard dash, his work in throwing drills confirmed his elite arm talent, particularly on deep passes.
Maye was ultimately selected by the New England Patriots with the third overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, after Caleb Williams went to the Chicago Bears at No. 1 and Jayden Daniels to the Washington Commanders at No. 2. Maye’s selection marked the 10th time a North Carolina quarterback had been taken in the NFL Draft and the 25th first-round pick in UNC history.
Pre-Draft Scouting: Drake Maye’s Strengths and Weaknesses
Strengths
Arm Talent: Maye was praised for his arm strength, capable of making all the NFL-level throws, particularly on deep balls. His ability to throw off-platform and push the ball downfield drew comparisons to Josh Allen and Justin Herbert.
Mobility and Playmaking: Maye’s ability to extend plays and make off-script throws was one of his standout qualities, drawing comparisons to Patrick Mahomes. His escapability allowed him to create big plays when the structure of a play broke down.
Deep Accuracy: Maye was consistently accurate on deep throws in college, often completing difficult passes into tight windows, which gave evaluators confidence that his deep ball would translate well to the NFL.
Weaknesses
Inconsistent Footwork and Mechanics: One of the most flagged concerns in Maye’s pre-draft scouting report was his inconsistent footwork, especially when he faced pressure. His tendency to throw off his back foot or rely solely on arm strength led to accuracy issues, particularly in the intermediate range.
Decision-Making Under Pressure: Maye often struggled to handle complex defensive schemes in college, forcing throws into tight windows and making questionable decisions when blitzed.
Intermediate Accuracy: While Maye excelled in pushing the ball downfield, his accuracy in the 10-19 yard range was inconsistent. His mechanics and reliance on arm talent over sound footwork led to a higher rate of missed throws in this area.
Film and Data Analysis: Early Trends in the NFL
Drake Maye’s first two NFL starts offer a small but meaningful sample to assess how his performance compares to pre-draft expectations, shedding light on his strengths and areas for improvement.
Throws vs. Pressure
Pre-Draft Evaluation: Drake Maye’s footwork and mechanics were noted areas of concern, particularly under pressure. His pre-draft scouting report highlighted his reliance on arm strength over proper foot positioning, resulting in inconsistent accuracy—especially on intermediate throws. This habit often left passes slightly behind receivers or off-target in tight windows.
First Two NFL Starts: Drake Maye has shown notable improvement in footwork and mechanics, both in clean pockets and under pressure. Despite this, his completion percentage still drops significantly under pressure—from 69.5% in clean situations to 47.4%—indicating room for further development in handling defensive pressure. Early film evidence suggests he is indeed progressing in his mechanics, with a more consistent foundation whether pressured or in a clean pocket.
Comparison: Maye’s early situation is reminiscent of Josh Allen’s initial NFL struggles, as Allen also had to refine his mechanics and footwork to make his arm talent more consistent. Like Allen, Maye has shown flashes of brilliance, but he will need to develop consistency under pressure to unlock his full potential.
Accuracy
Intermediate Throws (10-19 yards):
Pre-Draft Evaluation: Maye’s accuracy in the intermediate range was inconsistent due to his footwork. His scouting report flagged these throws as an area needing refinement, as he often left balls behind his receivers.
First Two NFL Starts: Drake Maye's mechanical consistency appears improved in his first two NFL starts. In 2024, he's completed 50% of his intermediate throws for 166 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. His passer rating in this range is 77.5, highlighting an area for continued refinement. Overall, though, his progress looks promising.
Deep Throws (20+ yards):
Pre-Draft Evaluation: Maye’s deep ball accuracy was one of his strongest traits at UNC, where he consistently connected on vertical passes. His arm strength gave scouts confidence that this skill would translate well to the NFL.
First Two NFL Starts: Maye’s deep accuracy has indeed translated. Through two starts, he completed 4 of 6 deep throws (66.7%) for 127 yards and two touchdowns, yielding a passer rating of 149.3. His 40-yard touchdown pass in his debut is a strong early indicator that he can push the ball vertically, a trait that remains one of his strengths.
Comparison: Maye’s deep-ball accuracy is reminiscent of Justin Herbert, who also entered the NFL with a reputation for excelling on vertical throws. Like Herbert, Maye’s arm talent enables him to connect on long throws, offering a reliable vertical threat for the Patriots.
Performance Under Pressure
Pre-Draft Evaluation: Maye’s decision-making under pressure was identified as a weakness, with scouts noting his tendency to force throws into tight coverage. He struggled against complex defensive schemes, often leading to turnovers.
First Two NFL Starts: Maye’s struggles under pressure continue in the NFL. His PFF grade under pressure is just 28.1, with a completion rate of 47.4%, which drops significantly from his 69.5% completion rate in a clean pocket. Not all of this is on Drake Maye as the Patriots offensive line is one of the worst in pass pro in the NFL.
Comparison: Maye’s early struggles mirror those of Mitchell Trubisky, who also entered the NFL with high potential but often struggled under pressure. For Maye to progress, he’ll need to improve his pocket awareness and speed up his decision-making against complex defenses.
Time to Throw: Under 2.5 Seconds vs. Over 2.5 Seconds
Pre-Draft Evaluation: Maye was praised for his quick release when necessary, though there were concerns about his tendency to hold onto the ball too long, especially when his first read wasn’t available.
First Two NFL Starts: Drake Maye currently ranks in the bottom third of the NFL for time to throw, averaging 2.86 seconds per attempt. His completion rate shifts from 68% on throws under 2.5 seconds to 60% on throws over 2.5 seconds. A consistent theme on tape is his tendency to extend plays, which inflates his time-to-throw numbers—not due to processing issues but because of his ability to keep plays alive. He navigates the pocket well, sidestepping pressure to buy time, and the Patriots incorporate designed rollouts that also contribute to his higher time-to-throw average.
Comparison: Maye’s struggles with processing speed resemble those of early-career Sam Darnold, who similarly had difficulty making quick decisions under NFL pressure. Maye will need to refine his processing and develop the ability to make decisive, accurate throws within a tighter time frame.
Mobility and Playmaking
Pre-Draft: Maye’s playmaking ability was a major asset at UNC, where he rushed for 1,209 yards and 16 touchdowns over two seasons. His scouting report highlighted his ability to extend plays and make throws on the run, which was a key component of his game.
NFL Performance: In his first two NFL starts, Maye has shown flashes of this same mobility, including a 15-yard scramble for a first down and a 30-yard pass to Hunter Henry while under pressure. His ability to evade defenders and make off-schedule throws remains a strength, though his decision-making in these situations will be crucial for long-term success.
Summary of Data
Mobility and Playmaking: Maye’s ability to extend plays and make off-script throws has effectively translated to the NFL, aligning with his college performance. In his first two games, he has demonstrated an impressive 15-yard scramble and a 30-yard pass while under pressure, confirming his escapability and playmaking potential as a foundational strength.
Intermediate Accuracy: Maye’s intermediate accuracy has been a point of emphasis since pre-draft evaluations, and early results suggest ongoing inconsistencies. With a current 50% completion rate in the 10-19 yard range, totaling 166 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, his passer rating sits at 77.5. This highlights areas for improvement in footwork and mechanics. However, his tape does show that he’s making strides in this category, signaling promising progress.
Deep Ball Accuracy: With a 66.7% completion rate on deep throws (20+ yards), totaling 127 yards and two touchdowns, Maye’s ability to connect on deep vertical throws remains one of his most reliable assets. His passer rating of 149.3 on these throws underscores his strength in this area, as evidenced by his 40-yard touchdown pass in his NFL debut, aligning with pre-draft projections of his deep accuracy.
Pressured Throws: Maye’s PFF rating of 28.1 under pressure confirms pre-draft concerns about his decision-making and mechanics when faced with defensive pressure. His completion percentage drops from 69.5% when kept clean to 47.4% when pressured, suggesting this remains a critical area for growth. Additionally, the Patriots' pass-blocking issues are also a contributing factor to Maye’s challenges in these situations.
The Path Forward for Drake Maye
Drake Maye’s early NFL starts have shown both his strong potential and the developmental areas that need focus. His arm strength, mobility, and deep-ball accuracy are clear assets that match his college profile, but refining his footwork, decision-making under pressure, and intermediate accuracy is essential for him to reach a higher level of consistency. With limited support from the Patriots' offense—lacking a true deep threat at wide receiver and one of the league’s lowest pass-blocking grades—Maye has faced additional challenges that highlight his need for quicker processing and adaptability.
Overall, Maye has shown resilience and glimpses of the high-caliber play expected of him as a top draft pick. His raw talent is evident, and with steady improvement, he has the potential to solidify his position as this year’s QB2 or QB3 from the 2024 draft class.