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The stage is set for a monumental showdown in the College Football Playoff semifinals as 8-seed Ohio State faces 5-seed Texas in the Cotton Bowl. Both teams bring elite talent and contrasting styles to this clash. Ohio State’s high-powered offense and dominant defense have steamrolled opponents in the postseason, while Texas relies on its elite defensive unit and explosive playmakers to outlast challengers. With a spot in the national championship on the line, this matchup promises fireworks.
College Football Playoff Semifinal Preview
Key Storylines to Watch
Battle in the Trenches: Ohio State's offensive line ranks 106th in pass blocking per PFF, while Texas boasts the nation’s top-ranked pass-blocking unit. Conversely, Ohio State’s defensive front ranks 3rd in the nation in sacks, creating a critical matchup against Quinn Ewers and the Longhorns' offensive line.
Strength vs. Strength: The Buckeyes bring the nation’s No. 1 PFF-graded defense, allowing just 12.1 points per game. Texas counters with the No. 2 defense, surrendering only 14.5 points per game. Both defenses are elite at forcing mistakes and limiting explosive plays.
Quarterback Showdown: Ohio State’s Will Howard has been red-hot, with 630 passing yards, 5 TDs, and 1 INT in two playoff games, earning QBRs of 97.7 and 98.7. Texas’ Quinn Ewers has also been solid, posting 524 passing yards, 4 TDs, and 2 INTs in his playoff run, but he will need to elevate his game against the Buckeyes' ferocious pass rush.
Explosive Playmakers: Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State’s true freshman phenom, has been unstoppable with 290 receiving yards and 4 TDs in the playoffs. Texas counters with Matthew Golden, a dynamic receiver averaging 21.3 yards per catch in the postseason.
Matchup Analysis: Ohio State Offense vs. Texas Defense
Ohio State’s offense, ranked fourth in PFF grades, is led by quarterback Will Howard and wide receiver Jeremiah Smith. The Buckeyes average 6.9 yards per play and boast the No. 7 passing completion percentage nationally (70.8%). However, they face Texas’ No. 1 PFF-graded secondary, which has suffocated opposing quarterbacks, allowing just 5.5 yards per pass attempt.
Key to the matchup: Can Ohio State protect Howard against Texas’ defensive front led by Alfred Collins? The Longhorns excel in creating pressure with the nation's 15th-ranked defense in terms of sack %, and with Ohio State’s struggling offensive line, it could be a decisive factor.
Matchup Analysis: Texas Offense vs. Ohio State Defense
Texas’ offense ranks 16th in PFF grades but faces the nation’s best defense in Ohio State. The Buckeyes have allowed just 3.9 yards per play and lead the nation in sacks. Ohio State’s secondary, ranked 11th, has shown it can shut down elite passing attacks, as evidenced by their performances against Oregon and Tennessee.
Key to the matchup: Texas will rely on its elite offensive line to keep Ewers upright and give playmakers like Golden and tight end Gunnar Helm opportunities. However, Ohio State’s aggressive pass rush, led by Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau, will test Texas' top-graded pass protection.
Top 2025 NFL Draft Prospects to Watch
Ohio State:
Jeremiah Smith, WR: Explosive receiver with game-changing ability.
Jack Sawyer, EDGE: Relentless pass rusher who disrupts opposing offenses.
TreVeyon Henderson, RB: Versatile back with elite vision and speed.
JT Tuimoloau, EDGE: Dominant presence in the pass and run game.
Will Howard, QB: Strong-armed leader who thrives in high-pressure moments.
Texas:
Kelvin Banks Jr., OT: Anchor of the Longhorns' elite pass-blocking unit.
Jahdae Barron, CB: Top-ranked corner with elite coverage skills.
Alfred Collins, DI: Disruptive force in the trenches.
Matthew Golden, WR: Big-play receiver with speed to stretch the field.
Andrew Mukuba, S: Ball-hawking safety who thrives in coverage.
Ohio State vs. Texas Odds and Projection
Spread: Ohio State -5.5
Over/Under: 53.5 points
Prediction
Ohio State enters as the more complete team, boasting a balanced offense and a defense that excels at limiting big plays. Texas has the talent to challenge the Buckeyes, particularly with their offensive line and secondary, but inconsistencies on offense could prove costly.
Expect Ohio State’s defensive front to focus on disrupting Quinn Ewers, while Chip Kelly and Ryan Day implement a similarly aggressive game plan as the prior two games against Tennessee and Oregon, with Will Howard and Jeremiah Smith aiming to extend their dominant postseason run.
Implied Final Score: Ohio State 30, Texas 24