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The Capital One Orange Bowl will deliver a massive showdown between 6-seed Penn State and 7-seed Notre Dame. Both programs, rich in tradition and history, boast elite defenses, balanced offensive attacks, and NFL-caliber talent. With a trip to the national championship at stake, this semifinal promises a gritty battle where every inch matters.
College Football Playoff Semifinal: Penn State vs. Notre Dame
Penn State vs. Notre Dame
Key Storylines to Watch
1. Defensive Dominance
This matchup features two of the top defensive units in the nation:
Penn State Defense: Ranked 5th in opponent points per game (15.8), excelling at limiting big plays and disrupting offenses with 102 tackles for loss this season.
Notre Dame Defense: Allowing just 16.1 points per game, the Fighting Irish thrive on turnovers, ranking 13th nationally in interceptions and 4th in red-zone defense.
Both teams have relied on their defenses to secure victories in the playoff, making this a game where field position and turnovers will likely decide the outcome.
2. Quarterback X-Factors
Drew Allar (Penn State): Allar has flashed NFL potential with his arm strength and decision-making. In the quarterfinal against Boise State, he showcased his ability to push the ball downfield, averaging 13.8 yards per attempt.
Riley Leonard (Notre Dame): The dual-threat quarterback is the heartbeat of Notre Dame’s offense. Leonard’s ability to extend plays with his legs and deliver timely throws makes him a constant threat, particularly on third downs.
3. Special Teams and Hidden Yards
Notre Dame’s Jayden Harrison has been a game-changer, most notably with his 98-yard kickoff return for a touchdown against Georgia. Penn State will need to be disciplined in coverage to avoid giving up crucial field position.
4. The Battle in the Trenches
Penn State’s Front Seven: Led by Abdul Carter and Kobe King, the Nittany Lions have one of the most disruptive defensive fronts in the nation, allowing just 3.1 yards per carry and recording 37 sacks this season.
Notre Dame’s Offensive Line: Known for its physicality, the Irish line has excelled in pass protection, keeping Leonard clean in critical moments. However, they’ll face their toughest test yet against Penn State’s relentless pressure.
Matchup Analysis: Penn State Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
Penn State Offense
Key Strengths: The Nittany Lions are a balanced unit, averaging 202.2 rushing yards per game and 234.1 passing yards. Tight end Tyler Warren is a focal point of the passing attack, with 1,158 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns this season.
Weaknesses: While the offense is efficient, it relies heavily on Allar’s ability to connect with Warren in key moments. Outside of Warren, the receiving corps has struggled to consistently create separation against top-tier secondaries.
Notre Dame Defense
Key Strengths: The Irish defense thrives on forcing mistakes, ranking 4th in red-zone defense and 13th in interceptions. Safety Xavier Watts is a ball-hawking playmaker, while linebacker Jack Kiser leads the unit with his sideline-to-sideline range.
Weaknesses: Notre Dame has occasionally struggled to defend power rushing attacks, an area Penn State could exploit with running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton.
Key to the matchup: Can Penn State’s offensive line hold up against Notre Dame’s defensive front, giving Allar time to find Warren and stretch the field?
Matchup Analysis: Notre Dame Offense vs. Penn State Defense
Notre Dame Offense
Key Strengths: Riley Leonard’s dual-threat ability makes Notre Dame’s offense unpredictable. The Irish average 6.5 yards per play, relying on a combination of Leonard’s mobility and a steady rushing attack led by Jeremiyah Love.
Weaknesses: Notre Dame’s passing game has been inconsistent, with Beaux Collins as the only receiver to eclipse 450 yards this season. Against Penn State’s elite secondary, Leonard will need to be near-perfect.
Penn State Defense
Key Strengths: The Nittany Lions excel at creating havoc, ranking in the top 10 nationally in tackles for loss and sacks. Abdul Carter (90.8 PFF grade) and Kobe King anchor a defense that thrives on disrupting rhythm and forcing long-yardage situations.
Weaknesses: The secondary, while strong, has shown vulnerability against mobile quarterbacks who can extend plays. Leonard’s ability to scramble and create off-script opportunities could challenge their discipline.
Key to the matchup: Can Penn State’s defense contain Leonard’s mobility while forcing Notre Dame into third-and-long situations?
Top 2025 NFL Draft Prospects to Watch
Penn State:
Abdul Carter (EDGE): Explosive pass rusher with elite quickness off the edge.
Tyler Warren (TE): Dominant receiving tight end with mismatch potential.
Kobe King (LB): Physical tackler with excellent instincts in run defense.
Notre Dame:
Xavier Watts (S): Versatile safety with excellent range and ball skills.
Riley Leonard (QB): Dynamic dual-threat QB with NFL size and athleticism.
Jack Kiser (LB): Smart and physical leader of the defense.
Penn State vs. Notre Dame Odds and Projection
Spread: Notre Dame -1.5
Over/Under: 45.5 points
Prediction
This semifinal is a battle of strengths, with both teams fielding elite defenses and capable offenses. Penn State’s ability to create havoc and control the tempo with its ground game gives it a slight edge. However, Notre Dame’s experience in close, high-stakes games and Leonard’s ability to deliver in clutch moments could prove decisive.
Expect a physical, low-scoring affair where turnovers and special teams play a pivotal role. Ultimately, Notre Dame’s balanced approach and Leonard’s playmaking ability will be enough to secure a narrow victory.
Implied Final Score: Notre Dame 24, Penn State 21