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The stage is set for a thrilling quarterfinal matchup in the College Football Playoff. No. 5 Texas (12-2) will take on No. 4 Arizona State (11-2) in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on New Year’s Day.
Texas vs. Arizona State
For Texas, this game represents another step toward validating their status as a national powerhouse following their first College Football Playoff victory over Clemson. For Arizona State, it’s a chance to continue their Cinderella season, having shocked the nation by claiming the Big 12 title after being projected to finish last in the conference. Both teams bring unique strengths and compelling storylines, making this a must-watch matchup in Atlanta.
Key Storylines to Watch
1. Can Cam Skattebo Carry Arizona State to Glory?
Arizona State running back Cam Skattebo has been the backbone of the Sun Devils’ offense, finishing the season as a Heisman finalist. Skattebo amassed 1,568 rushing yards, 506 receiving yards, and 22 total touchdowns. His physical, downhill running style has made him one of the most feared backs in the nation.
The Sun Devils lean heavily on their ground game, ranking 11th nationally in rush rate (60.7%). However, they face a daunting challenge against Texas' defense, which ranks 7th in EPA per rush and 13th in rushing defense. For Arizona State to pull off the upset, Skattebo must find ways to break through the Longhorns’ disciplined front seven, led by Alfred Collins and Anthony Hill Jr.
2. Texas’ Stifling Secondary vs. Arizona State’s Passing Game
Texas boasts the nation’s No. 1 passing defense, allowing just 4.1 yards per dropback and ranking 3rd in interceptions. Led by Thorpe Award winner Jahdae Barron, along with standout safety Michael Taaffe, the Longhorns’ secondary has been a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks.
Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt has been a revelation, earning All-Big 12 honors as a redshirt freshman. While his numbers (2,814 passing yards, 21 touchdowns) have been solid, he’ll need to elevate his game to navigate Texas’ suffocating coverage. With top receiver Jordyn Tyson doubtful, Leavitt will need contributions from Melquan Stovall and the rest of the Sun Devils’ receiving corps to keep Arizona State’s offense balanced.
3. Texas’ Ground Game: Can It Dominate Again?
Texas showcased its dominant rushing attack in their first-round win over Clemson, tallying 292 rushing yards at 6.1 yards per carry. Jaydon Blue, who broke off a game-sealing 77-yard touchdown run, leads a dynamic backfield that has steadily improved throughout the season.
Arizona State’s run defense, led by C.J. Fite, ranks 52nd nationally, and they have struggled against elite rushing attacks. The battle in the trenches will likely dictate the pace of the game, as Texas looks to control the clock and wear down Arizona State’s defense.
4. The Quarterback Battle: Quinn Ewers vs. Sam Leavitt
Quinn Ewers has been efficient this season, throwing for 26 touchdowns while minimizing mistakes. However, his decision-making has been inconsistent at times, which could give Arizona State’s opportunistic defense a chance to capitalize.
On the other side, Sam Leavitt’s dual-threat ability adds an extra layer of complexity for Texas’ defense. While Leavitt has thrived in big moments, he hasn’t faced a defense as complete as Texas’. His poise under pressure will be critical as the Sun Devils look to pull off the upset.
5. Arizona State’s Cinderella Story
From 3-9 last year to a Big 12 title this season, Arizona State’s meteoric rise under head coach Kenny Dillingham has been one of the year’s best stories. The Sun Devils enter the game on a six-game winning streak, fueled by a relentless ground attack and an opportunistic defense.
Texas, meanwhile, is seeking redemption after falling short in last year’s playoff and has the chance to establish itself as a perennial title contender. The Peach Bowl serves as a proving ground for both programs to show they belong on the biggest stage.
NFL Draft Prospects to Watch
Texas:
Jaydon Blue, RB: Explosive runner with big-play ability and breakaway speed.
Jahdae Barron, CB: Elite cover corner with ball-hawking skills and instincts.
Alfred Collins, DT: Dominant interior lineman with excellent gap control and pass-rush ability.
Quinn Ewers, QB: Efficient thrower with good arm talent and decision-making.
Kelvin Banks, OT: Big athletic tackle with good movement skills and high-level blocking ability
Arizona State:
Cam Skattebo, RB: Physical, downhill runner with strong hands and versatility.
Previous Meeting Highlights
Score: Texas 52, Arizona State 34 (2007 Holiday Bowl) In their only previous meeting, the Longhorns dominated behind Jamaal Charles’ 161 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Michael Jones tallied 107 receiving yards and two touchdowns for the Sun Devils in a high-scoring affair.
Texas vs. Arizona State Odds and Projection
Texas enters the Peach Bowl as a 13-point favorite, with the total points line set at 51.5. The implied final score projects a Texas victory, 34-20, highlighting the Longhorns’ advantages in talent and depth.
Prediction
This Peach Bowl quarterfinal pits Arizona State’s improbable Cinderella story against a Texas team seeking to cement its place as a national powerhouse. The game will hinge on whether Arizona State’s ground game, led by Cam Skattebo, can find success against Texas’ elite defense.
While the Sun Devils’ resilience and physicality will keep the game competitive, Texas’ depth, defensive dominance, and explosive playmakers give them the edge. Look for the Longhorns to pull away late and advance to the semifinals.
Projected Score: Texas 34, Arizona State 20