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No. 11 SMU Mustangs at No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions
(Saturday, 12 PM EST on TNT/Max)
SMU’s high-powered offense, led by QB Kevin Jennings and RB Brashard Smith, presents a significant challenge for Penn State’s defense.
Can Penn State Contain SMU’s Dynamic Offense?
SMU’s high-powered offense, led by QB Kevin Jennings and RB Brashard Smith, presents a significant challenge for Penn State’s defense. Jennings has been outstanding against single-high coverages, posting a 90.5 passing grade, while Smith is among the most versatile backs in the nation. Penn State’s defense, known for its elite pass rush and strong linebacker play, must rise to the occasion.
Penn State, meanwhile, will look to lean on its physicality, especially in the trenches, to wear down SMU. If the Nittany Lions can dominate on both sides of the line of scrimmage, they should have the upper hand.
Three Keys for Penn State to Win
1. Control the Line of Scrimmage
Penn State’s offensive line must open up lanes for their running backs and give Drew Allar time to find his receivers. The Nittany Lions’ rushing attack will need to exploit SMU’s undersized linebackers, who struggle against downhill runs.
2. Lean on Tyler Warren
Tight end Tyler Warren has been the Nittany Lions’ most reliable offensive weapon, leading all Power Four tight ends in receptions and yards. Warren must have a big game against SMU’s safeties, who rank among the best in the nation.
3. Pressure Kevin Jennings
Penn State’s pass rush, led by Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton, must disrupt Jennings’ timing. The Nittany Lions cannot allow SMU’s quarterback to get comfortable in the pocket, especially against single-high coverage schemes.
Key NFL Draft Prospect to Watch for Penn State:
Abdul Carter, EDGE
Carter is a projected top-10 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, known for his relentless motor and game-wrecking ability. His impact as both a pass rusher and run defender will be crucial to Penn State’s success.
Three Keys for SMU to Win
1. Win the Perimeter Matchups
SMU’s wide receivers must take advantage of Penn State’s occasional lapses in single-high coverage. Kevin Jennings has thrived against such schemes, and the Mustangs will need big plays through the air to stay competitive.
2. Get Brashard Smith in Space
Smith, one of the nation’s most dynamic backs, must be utilized effectively in both the run and passing game. Penn State has been vulnerable on outside runs, which SMU can exploit with Smith’s speed and versatility.
3. Hold Up in the Trenches
SMU’s offensive line must protect Jennings and create running lanes against Penn State’s ferocious defensive front. A clean pocket and a balanced offensive attack are critical for the Mustangs to keep pace.
Key NFL Draft Prospect to Watch for SMU:
Brashard Smith, RB
Smith, with a 91.2 PFF grade, is one of the most versatile offensive weapons in the nation. His ability to create explosive plays both as a runner and receiver will be vital to SMU’s chances.
Current Odds and Prediction
Penn State: -10.5
Implied Game Total: 50 Points
The predicted final score is approximately 31-21 in favor of Penn State. The Nittany Lions’ defense, led by Abdul Carter, is expected to disrupt SMU’s offensive rhythm. Offensively, Tyler Warren and the Penn State ground game should find success against the Mustangs' undersized front seven.
While SMU’s explosive offense poses a significant threat, Penn State’s physicality and home-field advantage give the Nittany Lions the edge in this intriguing first-round matchup.