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The stage is set for another thrilling College Football Playoff quarterfinal. No. 4 Penn State (12-2) will face No. 9 Boise State (12-1) in the Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.
For Penn State, this game represents an opportunity to lean on their balanced roster and elite defense as they seek a semifinal berth. For Boise State, it’s a chance to prove their high-powered offense can carry them to new heights on the national stage. Both teams bring contrasting strengths, setting the stage for a compelling battle in the desert.
With championship dreams and NFL scouts watching closely, this matchup features elite talent, including Heisman finalists, dominant defensive linemen, and explosive offensive weapons.
Key Storylines to Watch
1. Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty Chases History
Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty has been the heart and soul of the Broncos’ offense. The Heisman Trophy runner-up leads the nation in rushing yards (2,497) and touchdowns (29) and is within striking distance of Barry Sanders’ single-season rushing record.
Jeanty faces a stout Penn State run defense that ranks 10th nationally, allowing just 100.4 yards per game. If the Broncos hope to pull off the upset, Jeanty must find ways to break through Penn State’s front seven, led by Abdul Carter.
2. Penn State’s Ground-and-Pound Duo
The Nittany Lions bring a thunderous one-two punch in the backfield with Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Together, the duo has combined for 1,820 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns this season.
Boise State’s defense, which ranks 23rd nationally in rushing yards allowed per game, will be tasked with slowing the physicality of Penn State’s run game. This battle in the trenches could dictate the tempo of the game.
3. Drew Allar’s Decision-Making Under Pressure
Penn State quarterback Drew Allar has been steady this season, throwing for over 3,000 yards and 21 touchdowns while limiting turnovers. Boise State’s defense, however, excels at applying pressure, ranking second nationally with 51 sacks.
Allar has only been sacked 14 times this season, but Boise State edge rusher Jayden Virgin-Morgan and his team-high 10 sacks could make life difficult. Allar’s ability to make quick decisions and avoid costly mistakes will be critical.
4. Can Boise State Contain TE Tyler Warren
Penn State tight end Tyler Warren is a matchup nightmare. The Mackey Award winner has set a Big Ten single-season record for tight ends with 1,095 receiving yards and 10 total touchdowns.
Boise State has struggled in pass defense, allowing 246.8 passing yards per game (109th nationally). Keeping Warren in check will be a top priority for the Broncos.
5. The Fiesta Bowl Legacy
Both teams are undefeated in Fiesta Bowl history, with Penn State boasting a 7-0 record and Boise State at 3-0. This quarterfinal marks their first-ever meeting, adding another layer of intrigue to a matchup already steeped in postseason history.
Top NFL Draft Prospects to Watch
Penn State:
Tyler Warren, TE: Elite pass catcher with blocking ability; a game-changing tight end prospect.
Abdul Carter, EDGE: Dominant pass rusher with elite athleticism and production.
Nicholas Singleton, RB: Physical runner with excellent vision and burst.
Drew Allar, QB: Strong-armed quarterback with size and improving accuracy.
Boise State:
Ashton Jeanty, RB: Explosive and elusive back chasing history.
Jayden Virgin-Morgan, EDGE: Disruptive pass rusher with top-tier production.
Cameron Camper, WR: Dynamic playmaker with a knack for explosive plays.
Previous Meeting Highlights
Score: First-ever meeting.
While this is the first matchup between these programs, both bring storied Fiesta Bowl histories. Boise State is remembered for its iconic 2007 victory over Oklahoma, while Penn State’s 1987 win over Miami remains one of the most memorable in college football history.
Penn State vs. Boise State Odds and Projection
Penn State enters as the favorite with a -10.5 point spread, and the total points line is set at 52.5. The implied score projects a two-score game, with Penn State claiming the win vs. Boise State 32-21.
Prediction
This Fiesta Bowl battle will hinge on which team can dominate in the trenches. Penn State’s balanced offense and stifling defense give them a slight edge, especially if they can limit Ashton Jeanty’s impact.
Boise State’s high-powered offense, led by Jeanty, and a defense anchored by Jayden Virgin-Morgan, have the potential to keep it close—but for how long? Penn State’s depth and physicality at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball may ultimately prove too much for the Broncos to handle.
Projected Implied Score: Penn State 32, Boise State 21