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The stage is set for one of the most anticipated rematches in College Football Playoff history. No. 1 Oregon (13-0) will face No. 8 Ohio State (11-2) in the historic Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day.
For Oregon, this game represents a chance to continue their undefeated season and move closer to a national championship. For Ohio State, it’s an opportunity to avenge their heartbreaking 32-31 loss in October, a game defined by controversial officiating and critical late-game errors. Both teams enter the rematch playing their best football of the season, setting the stage for a high-stakes battle between two of the nation’s most balanced and talented rosters.
With championship aspirations and NFL scouts watching closely, this game highlights elite talent on both sides of the ball for each team, including rising NFL Draft prospects at quarterback, dominant defensive linemen, and explosive-skill players.
Key Storylines to Watch
Key Storylines: Oregon’s Defense vs. Ohio State’s Passing Game
Oregon’s defense has been one of the most efficient against the pass this season, allowing just 176 passing yards per game—ranking 8th nationally. Their ability to pressure quarterbacks, led by edge rusher Jordan Burch, has been critical, with a sack rate of 8.5% (18th nationally). However, in their first matchup, the Ducks struggled at times to contain Ohio State’s explosive passing attack.
Will Howard delivered one of his best performances of the season back in October vs. Oregon, completing 28 of 35 passes for 326 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. Ohio State’s offense was aggressive and efficient early, averaging 8.7 yards per play in the first quarter and building a 165-84 advantage in total yards. Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith combined for 19 receptions, 193 yards, and two touchdowns, frequently exploiting mismatches in Oregon’s secondary.
While Oregon allowed explosive plays, their defense adjusted as the game progressed. They limited Ohio State to just 4 of 12 on third downs, stayed disciplined with only three penalties compared to Ohio State’s eight, and avoided turnovers that could have shifted momentum.
The key to putting Ohio State into unfavorable passing situations is to keep their run game in check. In the first meeting, the Ducks held Ohio State to 4.3 yards per rush attempt—not dominant, but good enough to keep Ohio State in 3rd-and-obvious passing situations.
To replicate their prior success, Oregon will need to contain Ohio State’s big-play threats and leverage their pass rush to disrupt Will Howard’s rhythm. This means forcing longer 3rd-down situations, allowing them to pin their ears back and get after the QB. A consistent pass rush, paired with disciplined coverage, will be critical to neutralizing the Buckeyes’ passing attack and securing another victory.
Key Storylines: Oregon’s Offense vs. Ohio State’s Defense
On the flip side, Oregon’s high-powered offense, averaging 36.9 points per game, will face an Ohio State defense that has allowed just 11.7 points per game over its last five matchups.
Dillon Gabriel, the engine of Oregon’s offense, will be crucial. He has completed 72% of his passes this season, averaging 8.8 yards per attempt, and delivered a stellar performance in their first meeting, throwing for 341 yards and two touchdowns. Gabriel’s efficiency and his ability to extend plays with his legs (8.0 yards per rush in the first matchup) add another layer of complexity for Ohio State’s defense.
Ohio State’s defense has undergone a transformation since that October loss, particularly in their pass defense, which hasn’t allowed a touchdown through the air in five games.
Anchored by edge rushers J.T. Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer, along with elite interior lineman Tyliek Williams, the Buckeyes boast one of the most formidable fronts in college football. This unit will be tasked with limiting an Oregon rushing attack that averages 5.0 yards per carry and tallied 155 rushing yards in the first meeting.
Jordan James, who rushed for 115 yards and a touchdown in October, remains a key weapon for the Ducks.
For Ohio State, the key will be keeping Oregon’s offense off schedule. The Ducks excel in manageable situations, converting 50% of third downs (5th nationally). However, in the first matchup, Oregon struggled in longer third downs, converting just 43% overall and only 2 of 5 in the third quarter. Forcing Oregon into third-and-5 or longer will allow the Buckeyes’ pass rush to focus on Gabriel, limiting the dual-threat quarterback’s ability to exploit mismatches.
If Oregon can establish their run game as they did in October, averaging 5.0 yards per carry, it will be difficult for Ohio State to contain their balanced attack. However, if the Buckeyes can clog running lanes and pressure Gabriel consistently, they’ll have a much better chance of disrupting one of the nation’s most efficient offenses.
Top NFL Draft Prospects to Watch
Ohio State:
TreVeyon Henderson, RB: Electrifying back with elite vision and breakaway speed.
Quinshon Judkins, RB: Bruising runner who excels in short-yardage and goal-line situations.
J.T. Tuimoloau, EDGE: Versatile defender capable of disrupting any offensive game plan.
Jack Sawyer, EDGE: Relentless edge rusher who thrives against both the pass and run.
Emeka Egbuka, WR: Reliable target with exceptional hands and route-running ability.
Will Howard, QB: A poised, strong-armed passer with improving accuracy and decision-making.
Oregon:
Jordan Burch, EDGE: Dominant presence on the defensive line with elite athleticism.
Derrick Harmon, IDL: Powerful interior disruptor with exceptional pocket-collapsing strength.
Jordan James, RB: Versatile playmaker with balance and elusiveness.
Dillon Gabriel, QB: Seasoned dual-threat quarterback with the ability to deliver in clutch moments.
Previous Meeting Highlights
Score: Oregon 32, Ohio State 31 (October 12, 2024)
Gabriel’s 341 passing yards and three total touchdowns paced Oregon’s offense. Controversial officiating and clock mismanagement in the final moments derailed Ohio State’s comeback.
Ohio State vs. Oregon Odds and Projection
Ohio State enters the Rose Bowl as a narrow favorite with a -2.5 spread, and the total points line is set at 54.5. The implied final score projects Ohio State narrowly edging Oregon, 28.5-26, reflecting the balance between Ohio State’s defensive resurgence and Oregon’s offensive firepower.
Prediction
The prediction for this Rose Bowl rematch leans slightly in Ohio State’s favor, thanks to their recent defensive dominance and offensive resurgence. The Buckeyes’ defense, which hasn’t allowed a passing touchdown in five games, is well-equipped to challenge Oregon’s explosive attack, bolstered by a revitalized pass rush featuring J.T. Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer.
Offensively, Ohio State’s rushing tandem of TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins has excelled behind an improved offensive line, as demonstrated in their dominant performance against Tennessee. While Oregon brings a balanced offense and the dynamic playmaking of Dillon Gabriel, the Buckeyes’ ability to control the trenches on both sides of the ball gives them a slight edge in what promises to be a thrilling contest.
Projected Implied Score: Ohio State 28.5, Oregon 26