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The College Football Playoff committee unveils its first rankings Tuesday, giving teams a crucial look at the 12-team playoff race. Oregon, Ohio State, and Indiana lead in the Big Ten; Miami holds steady in the ACC; and Alabama and Georgia fight for SEC playoff spots, as BYU tops the Big 12 standings.
After 10 weeks of college football action, the College Football Playoff selection committee is set to unveil its first rankings on Tuesday, offering an essential snapshot into the race for the historic 12-team playoff. Oregon, Ohio State, and Indiana have distanced themselves in the Big Ten, while Miami is holding steady for the ACC title. In the Big 12, BYU remains on top, with Colorado and Iowa State trailing after key upsets reshaped the standings. The SEC has Alabama and Georgia in fierce competition, both vying for limited playoff spots amid a crowded field of contenders.
Key questions loom over this initial ranking: How far will Penn State drop after a home loss to Ohio State? Can undefeated Indiana sustain its playoff standing despite a weaker schedule? And which one-loss team will claim the committee’s highest respect? This ranking will give teams their first real look at playoff positioning, though seeding may evolve, with the top four conference champions earning byes and the top five conference champions securing playoff spots.
College Football Playoff Odds, Rankings, and Win Projections According to ESPN Football Power Index (FPI).
1). Oregon Ducks (9-0)
Oregon’s playoff case is bolstered by an October 12 win over Ohio State, one of the most impressive victories this season, especially with the Buckeyes’ recent success. Led by Heisman-contending quarterback Dillon Gabriel, Oregon has showcased a balanced approach, securing critical road wins, including at Boise State and Michigan, which strengthen their résumé among undefeated teams. Defensively, the Ducks are among the nation’s elite, allowing just over 15 points per game, placing them in the top ten for scoring defense. Oregon’s combination of strong offensive output and disciplined defense could provide them a secure path to the playoff, even if they face a setback in the Big Ten championship.
Implied Playoff Odds: 96%
Strength of Schedule (SOS): 45
Remaining SOS: 17
Win Total Prediction: 12 games
Toughest Remaining Game: Nov. 16 at Wisconsin
2). Georgia Bulldogs (7-1)
Georgia’s playoff case is built on a season defined by resilience and strong performances against notable opponents. Led by quarterback Carson Beck, the Bulldogs have managed to secure wins over ranked teams like Texas and Clemson, demonstrating both offensive firepower and defensive solidity. Their recent game against Florida highlighted this resilience; despite Beck’s three interceptions, Georgia pulled off a comeback win in the fourth quarter, showcasing depth and adaptability. With the nation’s most challenging strength of schedule, the Bulldogs have critical opportunities in November, including games against Ole Miss and Tennessee, which will give them a chance to solidify their standing as one of the top teams if they close the season strong.
Implied Playoff Odds: 93%
Strength of Schedule (SOS): 1
Remaining SOS: 5
Win Total Prediction: 11 games
Toughest Remaining Game: Nov. 16 vs. Tennessee
3). Miami Hurricanes (9-0)
Led by quarterback Cam Ward, a Heisman contender, Miami boasts one of the most explosive offenses in the nation, averaging over 50 points in five games this season. The Hurricanes’ ability to avoid trap games and secure decisive victories has kept them undefeated, although their lack of ranked wins may concern the committee. Miami ranks No. 1 in points per game and holds the No. 2 spot nationally in offensive efficiency, giving them an edge over other playoff hopefuls. With the ACC title and playoffs in sight, consistency will be crucial as they approach a favorable remaining schedule.
Implied Playoff Odds: 93%
Strength of Schedule (SOS): 46
Remaining SOS: 49
Win Total Prediction: 12 games
Toughest Remaining Game: Nov. 9 at Georgia Tech
4). Ohio State Buckeyes (7-1)
Quarterback Will Howard led Ohio State to a crucial 20-13 victory over Penn State, boosting the Buckeyes' playoff standing and reinforcing their case to be ranked ahead of Georgia. Their lone setback, a one-point road loss to Oregon, is seen by the committee as one of the better losses compared to other contenders, given Oregon’s position as a top-ranked team. Ohio State’s potent offense, combined with a resilient defense, makes them a formidable candidate for a playoff spot, especially if they secure a spot in the Big Ten Championship. Upcoming matchups with Indiana and Michigan will be decisive tests in their playoff pursuit.
Implied Playoff Odds: 92%
Strength of Schedule (SOS): 19
Remaining SOS: 23
Win Total Prediction: 11 games
Toughest Remaining Game: Nov. 23 vs. Indiana
5). Indiana Hoosiers (9-0)
Under the guidance of first-year head coach Curt Cignetti and transfer quarterback Kurtis Roarke, Indiana has reached an unprecedented 9-0 record. The Hoosiers boast a potent offense that ranks second nationally, averaging 46.6 points per game, while their disciplined defense holds opponents to just 13.67 points per game. Despite having one of the weakest schedules in the country, with opponents’ winning percentages ranking 104th, Indiana’s dominance is clear: they lead the nation with an average winning margin of nearly 33 points per game. However, their most challenging test looms on Nov. 23, when they face Ohio State—a game that could define their playoff aspirations.
Implied Playoff Odds: 87%
Strength of Schedule (SOS): 103
Remaining SOS: 14
Win Total Prediction: 12 games
Toughest Remaining Game: Nov. 23 at Ohio State
6). Texas Longhorns (7-1)
Texas has delivered a strong season highlighted by key wins over Michigan and Oklahoma, both teams above .500, though not necessarily playoff-shaking for the committee. Quarterback Quinn Ewers has been instrumental, but it’s the Longhorns' standout offensive line and second-ranked defense—just behind Tennessee—that anchor their success. Despite a double-digit loss to Georgia, Texas escaped with a narrow 27-24 victory over Vanderbilt, where penalties and sacks exposed some areas for improvement. Texas A&M, a familiar rival from their Big 12 days, is their only ranked opponent left on the regular-season schedule. A win in that high-stakes matchup could solidify the Longhorns’ playoff case, while a loss may jeopardize their bid if other two-loss contenders present stronger résumés.
Implied Playoff Odds: 78%
Strength of Schedule (SOS): 54
Remaining SOS: 16
Win Total Prediction: 11 games
Toughest Remaining Game: Nov. 30 at Texas A&M
7). Penn State Nittany Lions (7-1)
Quarterback Drew Allar and standout TE Tyler Warren have seen positive results from the addition of first-year OC Andy Kotelnicki. However, they faced a tough challenge when they were unable to score a touchdown against Ohio State at home, resulting in a loss where the defense played a crucial role in keeping the Nittany Lions competitive. The Nittany Lions' schedule has been lacking in notable victories, with their most significant win coming against Illinois, a team that has since weakened after losing to Minnesota. Victories over teams like Kent State (0-8), West Virginia, and Bowling Green (each with multiple losses) have not contributed much to their strength of schedule. Without any more games against ranked opponents, Penn State will need to secure convincing wins to enhance its playoff prospects and make a strong case for an at-large bid.
Implied Playoff Odds: 75%
Strength of Schedule (SOS): 28
Remaining SOS: 56
Win Total Prediction: 10 games
Toughest Remaining Game: Nov. 23 at Minnesota
8). Tennessee Volunteers (7-1)
The Volunteers’ playoff case is bolstered by a strong defense that ranks third nationally in points allowed, giving up just 11.5 points per game—placing them ahead of Oregon, Georgia, and narrowly above Ohio State. Tennessee's recent narrow victory over Kentucky showed resilience, while their marquee win over Alabama remains a key highlight on their résumé. Although they suffered a close road loss to Arkansas, it doesn’t weigh as heavily as other teams' losses. However, Tennessee has shown vulnerabilities with turnovers and penalties, and they needed overtime to beat a four-loss Florida team. With a weak nonconference schedule in September, they’ll need a more assertive showing to impress the committee. Upcoming games provide an opportunity to solidify their case, especially with a high-stakes matchup against Georgia.
Implied Playoff Odds: 74%
Strength of Schedule (SOS): 33
Remaining SOS: 13
Win Total Prediction: 10 games
Toughest Remaining Game: Nov. 16 at Georgia
9). Boise State Broncos (7-1)
Boise State’s playoff case is bolstered by a competitive 37-34 loss to Oregon, which remains one of the more respectable defeats in the country. Running back Ashton Jeanty, a Heisman hopeful, powers a high-octane offense ranked third nationally in scoring, averaging 45.7 points per game. The Broncos have recorded four impressive road victories, including a dominant 21-point win over Washington State and a solid performance against UNLV to lead the Mountain West. Complementing their offense, Boise State’s defense ranks first in the nation in sacks, with 38 on the season, which strengthens their playoff potential should they continue winning.
Implied Playoff Odds: 69%
Strength of Schedule (SOS): 59
Remaining SOS: 46
Win Total Prediction: 11 games
Toughest Remaining Game: Nov. 16 at San Jose State
10). BYU Cougars (8-0)
BYU's undefeated record, featuring notable wins over SMU and Kansas State, has positioned them well in the playoff conversation. Their offense is among the most efficient in the nation, while their defense consistently keeps opponents in check. The Cougars’ Strength of Record metric ranks them third nationally, underscoring the difficulty of maintaining an undefeated season against this schedule. However, they’ve faced some weaker teams, like FCS Southern Illinois and a struggling Wyoming, which leaves little room for error if they are to remain a playoff contender. Each remaining game, especially against Arizona State, will be crucial to their playoff ambitions.
Implied Playoff Odds: 58%
Strength of Schedule (SOS): 70
Remaining SOS: 35
Win Total Prediction: 10 games
Toughest Remaining Game: Nov. 23 at Arizona State
11). Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-2)
Notre Dame capitalized on its recent bye week as several playoff contenders stumbled, bolstering its standing despite an early-season upset by Northern Illinois. Their recent dominant victory over Navy showcased the team's offensive improvement, a key factor as they eye a potential playoff spot. However, their independent status means they can't earn an automatic conference bid, adding pressure to secure a strong finish. The Irish must remain flawless, particularly in their final regular-season matchup against USC, to convince the committee of their playoff worthiness.
Implied Playoff Odds: 57%
Strength of Schedule (SOS): 75
Remaining SOS: 46
Win Total Prediction: 10 games
Toughest Remaining Game: Nov. 30 at USC
12). Alabama Crimson Tide (6-2)
Alabama's playoff path is precarious, with a statement win over Georgia offset by an unexpected loss to Vanderbilt. Quarterback Jalen Milroe has led the offense, but the Tide faces a critical test in their upcoming clash with LSU. This game serves as a playoff elimination matchup, where a loss could derail Alabama’s hopes, putting a significant dent in their two-loss résumé. A win, however, would keep them in the race and strengthen their case for a rare two-loss team in playoff contention, especially with their top-tier strength of schedule.
Implied Playoff Odds: 56%
Strength of Schedule (SOS): 11
Remaining SOS: 22
Win Total Prediction: 10 games
Toughest Remaining Game: Saturday at LSU