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Earlier this year, I posed two questions in a video: Is Bo Nix the right fit for a Sean Payton offense? Should Bo Nix start right away in 2024 for the Denver Broncos?
With the 2024 NFL season nearly complete, the answer to both is a resounding YES. Bo Nix has not only proven himself as a starting quarterback but has thrived under Payton, leading the Broncos to a 7-5 record and into playoff contention. Here’s a detailed look at how Nix’s rookie campaign stacks up against other quarterbacks who have played for Sean Payton, including Drew Brees, Jameis Winston, and Russell Wilson.
Bo Nix vs. Sean Payton’s Past QBs
Since taking over as a head coach in 2006, Sean Payton has been a quarterback whisperer, extracting peak performances from various signal-callers. Here’s how Bo Nix’s rookie season compares:
How Bo Nix Compares to Sean Payton’s First-Year QBs
Drew Brees (2006): In Payton’s first season as head coach, Brees led the league in passing yards (4,418), ranked second in completions (356), and threw for 26 touchdowns against 11 interceptions. His 96.2 passer rating was among the best in the NFL that year, and he carried the Saints to the NFC Championship Game. While Bo Nix is unlikely to match Brees’ legendary numbers, Nix’s 64.9% completion rate and 16:6 TD-to-INT ratio as a rookie signal strong potential as a long-term answer for Denver. Additionally, Nix’s mobility (300 rushing yards) adds a dynamic element not present in Brees’ game.
Jameis Winston (2021): Winston’s 2021 season with Payton was brief but efficient, with a 14:3 TD-to-INT ratio and a 102.8 passer rating. However, Winston played just seven games and totaled only 1,170 passing yards, averaging 167.1 yards per game. Nix, by comparison, is averaging 212.3 yards per game and outpaces Winston in completion percentage (+5.9%) and total yards. Nix’s poise and decision-making already appear more advanced than Winston’s during their respective first years with Payton, evidenced by Nix’s sustained efficiency over a larger sample size.
Russell Wilson (2023): Wilson posted strong numbers in his lone season under Payton, including a 66.4% completion rate, 3,070 passing yards, and a 26:8 TD-to-INT ratio. However, his season ended in disappointment as the Broncos missed the playoffs, and Wilson was benched late in the year. In contrast, Nix has rejuvenated the Broncos with a playoff push and has been more consistent in protecting the ball, with just six interceptions through 12 games. Additionally, Nix’s dual-threat ability has added versatility to Payton’s system, something Wilson struggled to deliver consistently during his time in Denver.
The Rookie Record Chase
Bo Nix has made a strong case for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, sitting alongside Jayden Daniels as a top contender. Here’s where he stands:
Touchdowns: Nix leads all rookies with 16 passing touchdowns.
Passing Yards: His 2,548 yards rank third among rookies, despite playing fewer games than some of his peers.
Rushing Impact: Nix’s mobility has been an asset, contributing 300 rushing yards and four touchdowns, adding a dual-threat element to Denver’s offense.
With four more passing touchdowns, Nix would become just the second Broncos quarterback since Peyton Manning (2014) to throw for 20+ touchdowns in a season.
Efficiency Metrics: Nix Joins Elite Company
In the past eight games, Nix has achieved a rare statistical feat:
Sack Avoidance: Nix’s sack rate is one per 20.1 pass attempts, ranking among the league’s best.
Turnover Avoidance: With just two interceptions over his last eight games, Nix joins Dak Prescott (2016) and C.J. Stroud (2023) as the only rookies since 1970 to combine a low sack rate and elite interception rate over a similar span.
Sean Payton praised Nix’s ability to avoid negative plays, crediting both the quarterback and the offensive line:
Show me good pass-protection metrics, and I’ll show you a quarterback that doesn’t take sacks. - Sean Payton Discussing Bo Nix
Conclusion: Bo Nix Is the Right Fit
Bo Nix’s rookie season has exceeded expectations, solidifying his role as the Broncos’ franchise quarterback. Sean Payton’s offense has been the perfect fit, blending Nix’s strengths in decision-making, efficiency, and mobility. While comparisons to Drew Brees are premature, Nix’s trajectory under Payton’s guidance gives Denver fans a reason to believe their quarterback woes are finally behind them.