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As we move into the 2024 NFL Draft player analysis before the 2023 college football season, we will provide in-depth scouting reports, film reviews, and more, covering the top players expected to declare for the 2024 NFL Draft.
Each year the evaluation process starts with preliminary evaluations. Some are based on limited film reviews in the early stages; for others, we already have a full four games evaluated or more, and the final grade depends on the prospect's final season of film in college.
Today, we look closer at the story the data can tell us for UNC QB Drake Maye, who is a projected 1st-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
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Scouting Drake Maye By The Numbers
When Under Pressure
In 2022, Drake Maye was under pressure on 37% of his dropbacks. There were only two QB's in FBS with 200+ dropbacks under pressure. The other is Washington State QB Cameron Ward.
Vs. a Blitz (5 or more)
Drake Maye was one of only 5 QB's who faced a blitz (5 or more man pressure) on 200+ dropbacks. Maye faced a blitz on 36% of his throws.
Keeping A Play Alive
Drake Maye is an underrated athlete. He excelled at buying time to keep plays alive or pick up a first down with his legs in 2022. Among all QB's with 100+ pressured dropbacks, Maye extended plays out to 2.78 sec on average (28th). He led the nation in total scrambles; he ranked 6th nationally with 79 total 1st downs vs. pressure.
On Target Throws In A Clean Or Dirty Pocket
An area he can improve when under pressure is his on-target throws while under pressure. His adjusted completion rate while under pressure (62%) vs. not pressured (80%) drops by 18%.
Big Time Throws
Drake Maye led FBS with 45 big-time throws in 2022 when pressured or not pressured. These throws are considered tight window throws. He did have 14 big-time throws vs. pressure, which is one better than Caleb Williams (13). Both are top 5 in this category while under pressure.
Bad Decisions
Drake Maye does need to clean up the decision-making. He was late or threw the football into traffic 16 times in 2022. By comparison, Caleb Williams had 11 such throws, while QB's from the 2022 NFL like Jake Haener, Bryce Young, Jaren Hall, Stetson Bennett, Anthony Richardson, Will Levis, and Max Duggan put the ball in harm's way at a lower rate. Caleb Williams finished 2022 with 11 such throws.
Three Level Accuracy
We discuss the three-level accuracy all the time and how it translates to the NFL, Short, intermediate, and deep throws.
Short (0-9yds depth)
Drake Maye has some work to do on the short throws, but his higher ADOT (10.4 yds) indicates he pushes the ball downfield more consistently than he checks it down, or the play calling could dictate these numbers in some way.
Intermediate Throws (10-19yds depth)
Maye is good in this category; he also needs some work here. He can make any throw, and the intermediate throws are the throws that translate best to the NFL level. His adjusted completion rate from this range is 66%. He ranked 24th nationally among QB's with at least 200 dropbacks in 2022.
Deep (20+ yds depth)
The deep accuracy improved a lot throughout 2022 for Drake Maye. He finished 2022 with an adjusted completion rate of 53% in 2022. He ranked 9th nationally among QB's with 20+ dropbacks.
As a Runner
Drake Maye is an underrated runner. He has 184 total runs, 76 of which are notated as scrambles. He rushed for 899 sack-adjusted total yards and 7 TD's.
*North Carolina ranked near the bottom of college football in 2022 in sacks allowed (40).
As a Passer
In 2022, Drake Maye ranked 4th nationally in total pass yards with 4293; Caleb Williams, by comparison, finished 3rd with 4539 yards. Maye had the 6th most TD passes with 37, while Caleb Williams led the nation with 42. Drake Maye also did an excellent job of taking care of the football from a turnover perspective. Even though he needs to clean up the decision-making, he only had 7 total INT's. Caleb Williams, by comparison, had 5.
Reliance on RPO's and Zone Read Game
RPO's
There was a little concern before watching Drake Maye's tape about the reliance on RPO's similar to Sam Howell when I initially evaluated him, but that is not the case for Maye. The good news is that the RPO element is there when needed. He attempted an RPO on 28 of his total dropbacks in 2022. He completed 19 for 202 yards. He averaged 7.2 yards per attempt. By comparison, Caleb Williams attempted 77 such throws for 502 yards and averaged 6.5 yards per RPO attempt.
Zone Read
If we subtract the zone read attempts, Drake Maye led the nation in QB runs among all QB's. The Zone Read is in his game, and he effectively used the zone read on 8 total attempts scoring 3 TD's and picking up 5 1st downs. By comparison, Caleb Williams executed a zone read 31 times for 147 yards, 4 TD's, and 17 first downs.
Other Run Types, Designed, Scrambles Without Zone Read
We noted above that Drake Maye had 77 rush attempts when pressured. We also noted that he amassed 899 rush yards total in 2022. He led the nation in QB runs that were designed, sneaks, draws, or scrambles (not zone read) with 131 such attempts. He was also 2nd in yards after contact, with 387 yards in this category. He was also elusive in space, forcing 19 missed tackles. Maye led the nation with 51 1st downs in the run game, and again this is non-zone read run types.
*Some data is comprised using three different resources and combined within the analysis. We use PFF, SIS, and our internal data.